Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

At 252

[ROCK]

not the same....pushes back into FL from the west....upi the EC into GA then back into FL from the west, down towards the FL panhandle then out...

[cycloneye]

ROCK, is there a trough?

[Wx_Warrior]

Soon, we'll be wathing the Low @ 340hours.....

[ROCK]

[ROCK]

what a jacked run....but it makes sense...the trof is not enough to pull it out, high builds back in pushes it west into FL then up the WFL coast....must be a fast moving high to pull it up that fast...or another trof

Yeah WX another low in the carib forming....

I need coffee..... it goes under FL up the EC into the GA area then south again into FL before heading out......whatever....

[cycloneye]

Run ends with another developing storm in Caribbean and another one east of the Windwards.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

NOGAPS running....96hrs.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


120hr...SW carib...

[lonelymike]

Looks like the Euro pattern makes more sense than the GFS at this time I guess.

[ROCK]

Looks like the Euro pattern makes more sense than the GFS at this time I guess.

man, I dont know....SV comes across and erodes the high enough for it to make a break for it but its not enough so it pushes it back into the EC then down into GA, then FL before heading back out with the next trof......good ole GFS.....entertaining...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah. Just slightly more sense . The gfs is getting more ridiculous each run now. I sure hope the euro does not jump on board this scenario. I know the euro has a tendency to over do highs, but it seems much more reasonable.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS always hangs up at 120hr...sheesh.....CMC out next....

[AJC3]

Where the GFS and ECM solutions have been departing is with respect to an amplifying short wave trough over the CONUS on days 5-7. The ECM has been consistently digging the trough/cutting it off farther west over the Rockies/high plains, while the GFS amplifies it a full 15-20 degrees (around 1000 miles or so!) farther east, near 80W, and has been varying between a cutoff low over the eastern CONUS, and a more progressive trough moving off the eastern seaboard (it's latest run).

The GFS winds up with a large weakness in the H50 height field from FL northward up the eastern seaboard, while the ECM maintains ridging over the SE CONUS. Hence, the GFS's TC find this weakness and lifts northward from the central Caribbean to near Florida.

Irrespective of whether Caribbean TC development occurs, I would watch how the global model forecasts trend with their handling of the H50 pattern over the CONUS for late this week into this weekend.

[boca]

I just don't know about that senario that the GFS has put out.I'm on the nogaps bandwagon at the moment.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


180hr NOGAPS....broad low pressure area similar to the 12z EURO....

[ROCK]

0z CMC is out.... 144hr.....moves inland...central america

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

another look at the EURO ensembles from this evening...

[hurricaneCW]

0z CMC is out.... 144hr.....moves inland...central america

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Not likely with the pattern we're entering in but it's possible. A low around the Yucatan peninsula or NW Caribbean is my best bet. The CMC seems to consolidate things a bit quicker than the gfs. This is going to be a very interesting pattern, I have no idea what's going to come out of it, will it be as crazy as the latest gfs run? Who knows.

[Vortex]

I still think somewhere near the NW carribean/western cuba...beyond that who knows....well find out what the euro has to say shortly....