Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

The solution the GFS has been giving the last few runs reminds me of Hurricane King 1950. Also, during a strong La Nina year.




Hurricane King wikipedia:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_King

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Vortex]

I can't begin to stress how classic this pattern is for development down the road over the western carribean..This morning's visible shows 46, central carribean convection, and the broad area of low pressure over the SW carribean...46 will bring very squally weather across the windwards tonight and tuesday. Everything will continue pressing westward this week and by late this week an organized area of low pressure will form over the western carribean. There is likely going to be several vorticies forming during the weak until one consolidates...

[KWT]

Yeah the 06z GFS takes this puch into Central America as possibly a weak TD type feature...whether or not the whole lot becomes a complex mess is uncertain though, I think the GFS develops a nearly seperate feature but the ECM develops it from the mess that becomes 46l.

06z GFS isn't unrealistic IF it develops the area behind 46L...if 46L becomes the main feature then the system will end up forminbg near the Yucatan like the 00z ECM and the Gulf is the threat zone.

[Blown Away]

The solution the GFS has been giving the last few runs reminds me of Hurricane King 1950. Also, during a strong La Nina year.
Hurricane King wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_King

2010 tracks look almost exactly like 1950 tracks so far. Good comparison Vortex.

[cycloneye]

Much more convection than anytime before.

[KWT]

Actually just looking at the ECM run, not sure its got a very good handle on the synoptics at all...I suspect what happens is the upper level low that swings through ends ups inducing a weak upper high at some level which shunts the system to the W/WSW but I'd be very surprised if that sort of evolution came off at least to that extent...but then again we must remember hurricane Karl and the ECM showing something similar gives more confidence to that solution...

The simple truth is its too soon to call, I'd put more weight on a Gulf/Florida threat then a Mexico threat...but honestly the models are in very large disagreement!

Probably will be given a code yellow soon...

[GCANE]

I can't begin to stress how classic this pattern is for development down the road over the western carribean..This morning's visible shows 46, central carribean convection, and the broad area of low pressure over the SW carribean...46 will bring very squally weather across the windwards tonight and tuesday. Everything will continue pressing westward this week and by late this week an organized area of low pressure will form over the western carribean. There is likely going to be several vorticies forming during the weak until one consolidates...

I agree.

So far I don't see any strong vorticity at 850, 700, or 500mb.

Looks like this will be a top-down development.

More likely, the diurnal-max convection along with persistant stratiform precip and solar heating of the cloud tops will heat up mid- & upper-levels of the troposphere.

This mostly likely will create an anti-cyclone in the next couple days which results in a strong updraft eventually resulting in a surface low that could form in the west Carib.

[ROCK]

oh I saw the EURO....misses the trof....and goes west......EURO vs GFS...totally different setups in the longe range....


which train are you on?? Hard for me to go against the EURO....I have my blinders on....

[cycloneye]

Here comes the favorable MJO phase, in time to favor possible cyclone formation in the Western Caribbean in the next few days.

[GCANE]

Looks like the early morning convection and couple hours of solar heating was enough to get an anti-cyclone forming.

[Vortex]

I can't begin to stress how classic this pattern is for development down the road over the western carribean..This morning's visible shows 46, central carribean convection, and the broad area of low pressure over the SW carribean...46 will bring very squally weather across the windwards tonight and tuesday. Everything will continue pressing westward this week and by late this week an organized area of low pressure will form over the western carribean. There is likely going to be several vorticies forming during the weak until one consolidates...

I agree.

So far I don't see any strong vorticity at 850, 700, or 500mb.

Looks like this will be a top-down development.

More likely, the diurnal-max convection along with persistant stratiform precip and solar heating of the cloud tops will heat up mid- & upper-levels of the troposphere.

This mostly likely will create an anti-cyclone in the next couple days which results in a strong updraft eventually resulting in a surface low that could form in the west Carib.

Gcane, you summed up the technicalities perfectly..I hope you continue to post this week and thereafter..Your knowlege of the inner workings of the atmosphere..etc are superb

[KWT]

Yep Cycloneye conditions are expected to get very condusive in the W.Caribbean, could well see a couple of these sorts of systems develop in the next few weeks.

[Vortex]

oh I saw the EURO....misses the trof....and goes west......EURO vs GFS...totally different setups in the longe range....


which train are you on?? Hard for me to go against the EURO....I have my blinders on....

I'm going with a strong hurricane developing by sometime next week between the Yucatan and Caymans...Beyond that...Let me by a lottery ticket

[boca]

Once that happens its all dependent on where the trough axis will be if the system does go west like the Euro says or pays Florida a visit like the GFS has been hinting the past few runs.

[cycloneye]

Here is this morning's synopsis of PGI46L made by the predict team.

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... opsis.html

PREDICT pouch synopsis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date (UTC): 2010/09/20 12:35
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/20 12:50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI46L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 13N 56W
Notes:




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:


GFS: Phase Speed: -7.2 Determination: v average Level tracked: 850 hPa


Track: 120h
Phase speed determined after initial "test" track was also -7.2
m/s.
GFS has the most consistent pouch and track.

UKMET: Phase Speed: -7.2 Determination: v850 only Level tracked: 850 hPa


Track: 96h, but that's only because the data stopped at 96
hours. (Note that the track plotted at the top of the time
series only goes to 84 hours, but the track continues to 96
hours in the 6-panel comoving vs. earth-relative comparisons.
The missing data played havoc with our code!)
A pouch is discernible throughout the 96 hours. The first two
days are erratic in terms of speed, but the track becomes more
stable after 48 hours. (After watching closely this year, this
isn't the only storm or model that has troubles creating a
smooth track near the islands. This erratic east-west jumping
as a pouch tries to cross the islands in the forecast fields
seems common ... but I realize that this is a small sample!)

NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -7.7 Determination: Moisture & v average Level tracked: 850 hPa

Track: 120h, but uncertain at 24, 60, and 84 hours.
Used RH and v850 to determine Cp.

[bvigal]

Is anyone else curious why this has never been labeled by TAFB as a tropical wave? (just a trough)

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


06z NOGAPS....similar to the EURO at 144hr moves it into the NW carib.....

[ConvergenceZone]

Actually just looking at the ECM run, not sure its got a very good handle on the synoptics at all...I suspect what happens is the upper level low that swings through ends ups inducing a weak upper high at some level which shunts the system to the W/WSW but I'd be very surprised if that sort of evolution came off at least to that extent...but then again we must remember hurricane Karl and the ECM showing something similar gives more confidence to that solution...

The simple truth is its too soon to call, I'd put more weight on a Gulf/Florida threat then a Mexico threat...but honestly the models are in very large disagreement!

Probably will be given a code yellow soon...

Yea, based upon the time of the year we are entering"(late september), I think that Mexico is a much less likely option now. More than likely this is going Texas east, but nobody know how far east at this point....

[Vortex]

at work but if anyone can give me an update on the 12Z NAM much appreciated