Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[HURAKAN]

48 hours

[Vortex]

thx hurakan!!

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro or GFS...Which one will win??? If I had to place a bet right now my money would be on the GFS. It has done quite well this year and the Euro has busted at least once that I can think of (Fiona). On top of that I just checked some of the forecast temperatures across the SE CONUS for next weekend and many are showing a high temperature drop of about 10 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. To me that would indicate that a pretty good front will be swinging through which will erode the ridge and lead to a GFS North and NE solution. Comments are welcome...

SFT

[HURAKAN]

66 hours ... sub 1000 mb

[HURAKAN]

78 hours ... moving more NW

[GCANE]

I can't begin to stress how classic this pattern is for development down the road over the western carribean..This morning's visible shows 46, central carribean convection, and the broad area of low pressure over the SW carribean...46 will bring very squally weather across the windwards tonight and tuesday. Everything will continue pressing westward this week and by late this week an organized area of low pressure will form over the western carribean. There is likely going to be several vorticies forming during the weak until one consolidates...

I agree.

So far I don't see any strong vorticity at 850, 700, or 500mb.

Looks like this will be a top-down development.

More likely, the diurnal-max convection along with persistant stratiform precip and solar heating of the cloud tops will heat up mid- & upper-levels of the troposphere.

This mostly likely will create an anti-cyclone in the next couple days which results in a strong updraft eventually resulting in a surface low that could form in the west Carib.

Gcane, you summed up the technicalities perfectly..I hope you continue to post this week and thereafter..Your knowlege of the inner workings of the atmosphere..etc are superb

Thanks Vortex!

Yes I will continue to post from now on.

[boca]

Gcane I second that reading your posts you have great knowledge from the core to the top of a storm.

[Sanibel]

This is where I'd be looking if they predict a continuing active season.

[GCANE]

Gcane I second that reading your posts you have great knowledge from the core to the top of a storm.

Thanks Boca!

[ROCK]

Euro or GFS...Which one will win??? If I had to place a bet right now my money would be on the GFS. It has done quite well this year and the Euro has busted at least once that I can think of (Fiona). On top of that I just checked some of the forecast temperatures across the SE CONUS for next weekend and many are showing a high temperature drop of about 10 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. To me that would indicate that a pretty good front will be swinging through which will erode the ridge and lead to a GFS North and NE solution. Comments are welcome...

SFT

if the EURO starts biting today over a more east solution I might agree with you....at this point though I place my bets on the EURO long range everyday of the week including Sundays. The GFS is horrible after 200+ hrs....basing temp changes on a NWS forecast 8 days from now does not amount to squat. Timing of development + how far the trof digs is key here....NWS forecasts are just that subject to change...they are looking at what we are seeing in the long range also....

[ROCK]

case in point...EURO ensembles from last night 0z run...

[srainhoutx]

Euro or GFS...Which one will win??? If I had to place a bet right now my money would be on the GFS. It has done quite well this year and the Euro has busted at least once that I can think of (Fiona). On top of that I just checked some of the forecast temperatures across the SE CONUS for next weekend and many are showing a high temperature drop of about 10 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. To me that would indicate that a pretty good front will be swinging through which will erode the ridge and lead to a GFS North and NE solution. Comments are welcome...

SFT

if the EURO starts biting today over a more east solution I might agree with you....at this point though I place my bets on the EURO long range everyday of the week including Sundays. The GFS is horrible after 200+ hrs....basing temp changes on a NWS forecast 8 days from now does not amount to squat. Timing of development + how far the trof digs is key here....NWS forecasts are just that subject to change...they are looking at what we are seeing in the long range also....

Not to start another model war or take this thread off track from PGI46L, but the GFS has done better since the Upgrade...

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro or GFS...Which one will win??? If I had to place a bet right now my money would be on the GFS. It has done quite well this year and the Euro has busted at least once that I can think of (Fiona). On top of that I just checked some of the forecast temperatures across the SE CONUS for next weekend and many are showing a high temperature drop of about 10 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. To me that would indicate that a pretty good front will be swinging through which will erode the ridge and lead to a GFS North and NE solution. Comments are welcome...

SFT

if the EURO starts biting today over a more east solution I might agree with you....at this point though I place my bets on the EURO long range everyday of the week including Sundays. The GFS is horrible after 200+ hrs....basing temp changes on a NWS forecast 8 days from now does not amount to squat. Timing of development + how far the trof digs is key here....NWS forecasts are just that subject to change...they are looking at what we are seeing in the long range also....

Fair enough Rock...But if I'm not mistaken I think the GFS is in the sub 200 hour range now. Furthermore you cannot discount the accuracy of the GFS when it came to the Earl and Fiona while the Euro showed Fiona plowing into South Florida.

SFT

[ROCK]

12z GFS rolling...

[caneseddy]

At 72 hours, you can see what looks like PGL146 moving towards Nicaragua where there is already a low pressure already formed there

At 90 hours, we have the beginning of something brewing off of Nicaragua
At 96 hours, the system is moving north parallel to Nicaragua and Honduras
At 102 hours right off the border coast of Honduras/Nicaragua
At 108 hours, just inland of north coast of Honduras
At 114 hours, exiting Honduras just west or over Roatan
At 120 hours, just off the coast of Belize
At 126 hours, stationary
At 132 hours, slowly inching north
At 144 hours, slowly moving north
At 156 hours, stationary
At 168 hours, starting to intensify north of Honduras (actually moved a bit east from where it was earlier)
At 174 hours, moving north
At 180 hours, intensifying and moving slowly north (at this moment, GFS picks up a feature just SE of Jamaica)
At 192 hours, two hurricanes in the Caribbean (GL146 and one just south of Hispaniola)
At 204 hours, PGL 146 explodes in size and the other storm just off the S tip of Haiti

[ROCK]

no more delaying in formation now.....similar to the 0z CMC also...

[ROCK]

see the trof coming into view...lets see if that bad boy picks it up? got to be a mighty deep one to pull this up at 96...

[ROCK]

[ROCK]

NA view of setup.....trof swinging in....looks more zonal...

[ROCK]

landfall in CA...very similar to the CMC