Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[ROCK]

not much going on at 132

[Hurricaneman]

its very possible that this is not the energy that the gfs has been throwing at florida run after run but another peice thats sitting near panama at the moment

[ospreygrad]

Good day! I frequent Storm2k.org quite often and I enjoy on my spare time reading through the various threads. I am now a new member of this site and I just wanted to take this time to say hello and that I enjoy the observations from the many posters on this thread in analyzing the global model runs.

The next 7-10 days are shaping up to be potentially extremely interesting for our neighbors down in the Central and NW Caribbean Sea and later into the Gulf of Mexico. It is beginning to appear that the long awaited pattern shift is about to commence by the beginning of October. The climatologically "hot spots" of the SW Atlantic basin is about to get busy unfortunately and now we really need to begin to focus and pay attention.

[ROCK]

not much going on....


alot of spinning...

[cycloneye]

its very possible that this is not the energy that the gfs has been throwing at florida run after run but another peice thats sitting near panama at the moment

Bingo,the real deal comes after 168 hours.

[ROCK]

its very possible that this is not the energy that the gfs has been throwing at florida run after run but another peice thats sitting near panama at the moment

Bingo,the real deal comes after 168 hours.

we need to move this to long range model runs then because this should be 46L at these time frames...

[ConvergenceZone]

Good day! I frequent Storm2k.org quite often and I enjoy on my spare time reading through the various threads. I am now a new member of this site and I just wanted to take this time to say hello and that I enjoy the observations from the many posters on this thread in analyzing the global model runs.

The next 7-10 days are shaping up to be potentially extremely interesting for our neighbors down in the Central and NW Caribbean Sea and later into the Gulf of Mexico. It is beginning to appear that the long awaited pattern shift is about to commence by the beginning of October. The climatologically "hot spots" of the SW Atlantic basin is about to get busy unfortunately and now we really need to begin to focus and pay attention.

Welcome to the board ospreygrad ,
and you are right, we are in the middle of the pattern shift that will start sending more systems into the central and eastern gulf.

[srainhoutx]

It may well be a low off the monsoonal trough that the models are sniffing. Complex situation with MJO as well as a Kelvin Wave moving E into the Caribbean Sea.

[cycloneye]

And exactly at 168 hours boom.

[ROCK]

competing systems?

[cycloneye]

Goes up in intensity at 174.

[ROCK]

what are the odds of this happening....

[cycloneye]

Yes ROCK,two.

[Vortex]

This run just tells me the western carribean is going to light up over the next few weeks...

[caneseddy]

Yes ROCK,two.

So 2 systems in close proximity to each other...can't wait to see what the GFS has in store now

[ROCK]

we have twins....congrats!!

[Ivanhater]

[ROCK]

This run just tells me the western carribean is going to light up over the next few weeks...

this tells me the GFS doesnt have a grasp on the situation just yet.....

[ronjon]

I think that's what you call model indecision...

[ROCK]

yeah ok....