Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

216 hours

[ROCK]

[ROCK]

288hr

[caneseddy]

216 hours

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal216.gif

Are my eyes deceiving me or is that a trough over the western Great Plains?

[ROCK]

324hr

[Ivanhater]

324

[Ivanhater]

384

[ROCK]

384hr

for entertainment purposes only...

[Scorpion]

Weird run, that thing is the size of the entire GOM

[Hurricaneman]

this run pulls a wilma trackwise

[ronjon]

Shades of Mitch on that run. Next...a fantasy land run by GFS. Waiting on the Euro.

[ROCK]

also in the very long range.....too far to be taken seriously.....so where are we at now? back to square one.....we have no idea when it will form or where its going....

[ROCK]

this run pulls a wilma trackwise

no in landfall terms....this head up into Tampa...

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS...keeps changing the upper air pattern...very odd on this run

[ospreygrad]

216 hours

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal216.gif

Are my eyes deceiving me or is that a trough over the western Great Plains?

Yes, indeed that is a developing upper level trough over the Central U.S. Plains being depicted by that model run. That trough looks fairly sharp on this run as well. We shall see if this trend continues on future runs.

But, yes, a trough that significant would pose bad news for the NE Gulf Coast and Florida at this time frame. Just have to keep monitoring for trends of course.

[SFLcane]

Looks like a track similar to that of wilmas.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS out 90hr in Long range thread


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[caneseddy]

From 288 hours-324 hours, GFS keeps this in the Yucatan and eventually starts to send it NE ala Wilma

At 369, watch out Florida (Wilma Part 2)

At 372 still moving towards Florida

[SouthFLTropics]

I posted sometime last month that the way the season is shaping up that this could be the year that Tampa gets hit hard from something down south...It is way too early in the game but I think the NE Gulf Coast and the FLA Penisula is under the gun from here on out for the rest of the season...Classic La Nina setup. I'll be very interested to see how the troughs start swinging through as we head into October.

SFT

[hurricaneCW]

I think there's a likely chance of something going on in the Caribbean a week from now, but all of the runs past day 7 are pure fantasy runs, they indicate a bunch of possible options that are at this time meaningless. I think the biggest thing that's shown in the longer ranges is the shut down of the Cape Verde season after our current disturbance, and a focus on Caribbean development. In a way, the favorable Cape Verde development will now become the favorable Caribbean development zone and that is very dangerous to the U.S.