Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[srainhoutx]

It appears that the GFS has joined the Euro in some agreement that this potentially will be a very large storm.

[cycloneye]

It appears that the GFS has joined the Euro in some agreement that this potentially will be a very large storm.

Yes Steve, on that I agree.

[caneseddy]

I posted sometime last month that the way the season is shaping up that this could be the year that Tampa gets hit hard from something down south...It is way too early in the game but I think the NE Gulf Coast and the FLA Penisula is under the gun from here on out for the rest of the season...Classic La Nina setup. I'll be very interested to see how the troughs start swinging through as we head into October.

SFT

Fantasyland GFS has our system hitting Tampa at the end of the run

[ospreygrad]

I think there's a likely chance of something going on in the Caribbean a week from now, but all of the runs past day 7 are pure fantasy runs, they indicate a bunch of possible options that are at this time meaningless. I think the biggest thing that's shown in the longer ranges is the shut down of the Cape Verde season after our current disturbance, and a focus on Caribbean development. In a way, the favorable Cape Verde development will now become the favorable Caribbean development zone and that is very dangerous to the U.S.

Boy you can't stress that enough. Especially when conditions in the Caribbean are extermely favorable for tropical cyclone development right now.

[cycloneye]

While the models decide what do do in the next few days, pouch PGI46L continues to march westward, bringing plenty of rain to the Windwards. It doesn't look to be organizing at the present time.

[ROCK]

[quote="cycloneye"]While the models decide what do do in the next few days, pouch PGI46L continues to march westward, bringing plenty of rain to the Windwards. It doesn't look to be organizing at the present time.

thats what I was saying Luis...no way that it takes 46L 168hrs to get to SW carib.....this is the short term development the models are seeing......there is another 1 or 2 together in the mid term that have nothing to do with 46L...

[Blown Away]

384

Do you think the system moving towards Florida at the end run is from PGI46L? PGI46L is moving through the Windwards rate now, difficult to think it will take @16 days to go from Windwards to Florida?

[ROCK]

12Z CMC takes 46L into CA only to emerge out of CA around Belize at 144hr.....interesting....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ronjon]

From GFS, 46L runs into Belieze and buries itself into CA. Another set of conditions lead to the potential western caribbean storm.

[Steve H.]

I think the models are having difficulty resolving a couple of Systems that will be in the GOM/Caribbean during the next 7 - 14 days. I believe there are two, and possibly three systems that maybe brewing from the BOM, to the Caribbean, and off the SE US coast.

[lonelymike]

"The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts."

Wise words from Dr. Jeff Masters

[Vortex]

46 has a very deep and moisture ladden southerly flow noted on the vis this afternoon...46 continues westward and it looks like the weather gets very active tonight/tuesday across barbados/windwards...Fairly low pressures across the region as well but likely nothing organizing until its gets further west. Still, I think the Windwards will deal with gusts to 35-40mph with localized flooding....Awaiting latter guidance to see how 46 plays into a developing cyclone across the western carribean late week/weekend...

[Vortex]

12Z euro at h96...developing south of jamaica



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif

[Vortex]

H120 slowly organizing between Jamaic and Honduras



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[Vortex]

H144 near the caymans moving NW



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[Vortex]

H168 moving N towards west/central Cuba



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

[Vortex]

H168 FL straits



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif

[Vortex]

looks like the the recent GFS runs

[jlauderdal]

looks like the the recent GFS runs

its like there is a wall at 85W, we are getting to that time of the year but development seems way too fast

[Blown Away]

looks like the the recent GFS runs

Correct me if I'm wrong, the GFS moves towards Florida in 384 hours and the EURO is doing the same in 192 hours, are we talking about the same system?