Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Approaching the Windward Islands

#921 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:01 pm

no 2 different systems.....46L is this one the EURO is seeing going out to sea....and up the EC
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Approaching the Windward Islands

#922 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:02 pm

A consensus building between GFS and EURO? What AJC said earlier this morning about how the models may reconize the CONUS pattern,may be reaching an agreement on that.
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Approaching the Windward Islands

#923 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:A consensus building between GFS and EURO? What AJC said earlier this morning about how the models may reconize the CONUS pattern,may be reaching an agreement on that.




need a few more EURO runs before I buy it...last night it was into the Yucatan....now it doesnt even get that far....they are flipping....my guess is the models are having a hard time pinning down development with all of the low pressures down there and the monsoonal trof....

Steve was talking about this earlier...
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Approaching the Windward Islands

#924 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:07 pm

Looks like the Euro and GFS are now coming into agreement on something that shoots N or NE out of the Caribbean possibly impacting South Florida.

Need more runs though...
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#925 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:09 pm

They keep going back and forth between Yucatan/BOC runs and FL/EC runs. Makes me worry that it will be somewhere in the middle, which would be not so good for me. I think we have a good 3-5 days before we can even have an idea what may form and certainly where it might be heading.
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#926 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:17 pm

Maybe the 18Z will give us more clarity :D
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Re:

#927 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:18 pm

Vortex wrote:Maybe the 18Z will give us more clarity :D



I prefer the 00z and 12z because it has more data from ballons.
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#928 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:21 pm

12Z Nogaps looks similar to euro
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Re:

#929 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:23 pm

Vortex wrote:Maybe the 18Z will give us more clarity :D


more clarity 48H from landfall, :double:
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#930 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:25 pm

anyone have the 12Z ukmet?
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Re: Re:

#931 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:27 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Vortex wrote:Maybe the 18Z will give us more clarity :D


more clarity 48H from landfall, :double:



See ya at LBTS :lol:
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Re:

#932 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:31 pm

Vortex wrote:anyone have the 12Z ukmet?



120hrs...12z UKMET

Image
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#933 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:34 pm

thanks SFL...
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Re: Re:

#934 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:36 pm

Vortex wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Vortex wrote:Maybe the 18Z will give us more clarity :D


more clarity 48H from landfall, :double:



See ya at LBTS :lol:


hopefully the pier is a little stronger than the last one, only took them about 2 years to rebuild it
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#935 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:42 pm

Here's another look at the 12z ECM.

Image
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Approaching the Windward Islands

#936 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:45 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the Euro and GFS are now coming into agreement on something that shoots N or NE out of the Caribbean possibly impacting South Florida.

Need more runs though...



Yes, but they are a week apart.

Looks like this run of the ECM develops PGI46L and shoots it toward the FL Straits.

GFS 12z buries 46 into central America and then develops another system that sits awhile and then shoots toward Tampa.


No agreement whatsoever as to what develops and when.
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#937 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:46 pm

Interesting week ahead!
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#938 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:46 pm

I think its west of the euro position on the 12z...probablly abit early for a trough to dig that deep :uarrow:
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - Over Windward Islands

#939 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:49 pm

While the models do their thing, pouch PGI46L is doing also its thing :) causing some strong winds in Barbados, and some pressure falls in that island.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Code: Select all

3 PM (19) Sep 20 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) E 18 rain showers
 2 PM (18) Sep 20 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) ESE 17 
 1 PM (17) Sep 20 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) E 15 
 Noon (16) Sep 20 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) E 17 
 11 AM (15) Sep 20 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) E 20 
 10 AM (14) Sep 20 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) E 23 light rain
 9 AM (13) Sep 20 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) E 28
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Re:

#940 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:50 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Interesting week ahead!


Indeed Hurakan...The 12z ECM continues to show a powerful trough digging into Great Lakes region sending whatever develops NE into SFL/Bahamas.
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