Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Ptarmigan]

That would be pretty horrific for the Tampa bay area

Good thing it's in la la land with that run.

It would be worse than Katrina.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Have to agree with gatorcane on this one. While there is a chance that a front could drop down and pick up whatever this may or may not become, I just cant see this drifting around the nw carib then gulf for days. The high in the SE US should keep this on a wnw/nw track on a steady pace until it breaks down and then we could expect a minor stall as steering currents collapse and flip around. That is if the front does make it as far south as currently progged.

[Vortex]

Very gusty over barbados..Sustained at 25mph at 10pm


Grantley Adams, BR (Airport)
Updated: 11 min 6 sec ago
75 °F
Light Showers Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 25 mph from the ENE
Pressure: 29.86 in (Rising)

[Aquawind]

I wonder why PGI46L is not tagged as an Invest?

I am surprised at no yellow..with all of the model support and a obvious healthy wave..I guess it's simply outside the 48 hour window before a depression is expected..

[lonelymike]

WXman57 said earlier the GFS is on drugs with its runs. So I wouldn't worry too much about TB just yet. Synoptic setup though is there for a storm to hit the west gulf coast of Fla.

[gatorcane]

To me it looks like the gfs is having a hard time dealing what looks to be two systems that develop in the western Caribbean. It almost seems like it is merging the two after having the first one sit around in the western Caribbean and yucatan for days. If you looks at the gfs from earlier today and yesterday there are actually two separate systems. The wave entering the caribbean looks like it will head through the central caribbean towards the western Caribbean. Then a break in the ridge develops in 5 days over Florida and Eastern gom. That should cause the wave to slow and likely stall in the western caribbean. That will result in a huge area of disorganized convection to develop in the western Caribbean. Development could occur over the course of several days.

[Vortex]

00z nam at h48...begins to take shape once again just north of SA.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[Ivanhater]

It is becoming clear that this will be a huge storm and impact a large area.

[Vortex]

It is becoming clear that this will be a huge storm and impact a large area.

That would be some storm

[GCANE]

Starting to get a good cyclonic turn on MIMIC-TPW.

Lots of low-level moisture is beginning to converge into a LLC.

Updraft is nearly vertical as indicated by the anti-cyclone directly over the center of the 850mb vorticity.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[Ptarmigan]

It is becoming clear that this will be a huge storm and impact a large area.

That looks larger than Gilbert! If named, it would probably be Matthew, since Lisa is about to form.

[Aquawind]

That's gonna hurt somebody..

[Vortex]

[img][/img]

[cycloneye]

00z NAM.

[ROCK]

HPC is predicting that front 7 days from now based on current guidance which is about 174hrs from now. Probably weighing in the GFS runs to some extent........I really dont see that front clearing the coast IMO...let alone digging through 2/3rd of the GOM....7 days from now is Sept not Oct...

[Vortex]

Luis, I noticed the NAM has been more agressive the last couple of runs...I think as it nears/crosses Honduras or just to the NE it may slow up or even stall as the steering currents collapse in about 5-6 days...GFS further west, Nogaps to the honduran coast then NNE, Euro to the east...ALL subject to change...We roll with the 00Z GFS in 15...

[abajan]

Since my last post, the frequency of lightning has increased (with occasional distant rumbles of thunder). Also, it’s now flashing not just in the northwest but also in the southwest, south and southeast. There have been a couple of fairly heavy showers accompanied by some gusty winds as well.

This is my final report for the night and I’m shutting down and unplugging the computer to be on the safe side.

Good Night.

[Vortex]

HPC is predicting that front 7 days from now based on current guidance which is about 174hrs from now. Probably weighing in the GFS runs to some extent........I really dont see that front clearing the coast IMO...let alone digging through 2/3rd of the GOM....7 days from now is Sept not Oct...

Rock, the HPC 7day forecast for 12Z on 9/27 actually has a boundary across north/central FL and drapped across the Gulf. Lead time is approximately 153Hrs from 11pm ET ...

[cycloneye]

Since my last post, the frequency of lightning has increased (with occasional distant rumbles of thunder). Also, it’s now flashing not just in the northwest but also in the southwest, south and southeast. There have been a couple of fairly heavy showers accompanied by some gusty winds as well.

This is my final report for the night and I’m shutting down and unplugging the computer to be on the safe side.

Good Night.

Stay safe there my friend.

[tina25]

Since my last post, the frequency of lightning has increased (with occasional distant rumbles of thunder). Also, it’s now flashing not just in the northwest but also in the southwest, south and southeast. There have been a couple of fairly heavy showers accompanied by some gusty winds as well.

This is my final report for the night and I’m shutting down and unplugging the computer to be on the safe side.

Good Night.

Thanks for your updates.