Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

#1081 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:Post long range at the thread for that.

luis, why long range when this is clearly 46?

ROCK · #1082 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:42 pm

I see the front digs all the way to the Yucatan...fall is here!!! season over!! :lol:

#1083 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:43 pm

The big question about this run is, what comes back from CentralAmerica, PGI46L or monsoon moisture that forms another system?

ROCK · #1084 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:44 pm

Vortex wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Post long range at the thread for that.

luis, why long range when this is clearly 46?

could be or could not be.....NOGAPS running shows EPAC system in the same vicinity...doesnt really matter....GFS is all over the place....and if its right with this strong front...whatever is down there is going out to sea...

#1085 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:45 pm

I think it's highly unlikely this trough is so deep that it turns the system ne while over the nw carribean in late setember/early october...N or NNE sure but what the 00z gfs is indicating is more novemberish.....

#1086 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:46 pm

ROCK wrote:I see the front digs all the way to the Yucatan...fall is here!!! season over!!

lol, break out the coats in fl....

blp · #1087 Postby **blp** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:50 pm

Vortex wrote:H228 cranking and heading NE out to sea....big swings with these runs....

I would agree, the GFS is having trouble figuring out the upper pattern. 18z had quite a different solution with the system hanging around missing that first trough and making landfall at 360hr which is a 5 day swing. I must say this is quite a complicated cyclogensis which results from the remnants of what might be Matthew hitting Honduras in 96hrs. I really don't believe we will be able to narrow this down until about 5 or 6 days from now when the remnants start to develop in the northwest Caribbean. It will be interesting to watch to say the least.....

ROCK · #1088 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:51 pm

NOGAPS- EPAC system moves over with 46L and start merging at 120hr

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

#1089 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:The big question about this run is, what comes back from CentralAmerica, PGI46L or monsoon moisture that forms another system?

Who wants to answer this question?

ROCK · #1090 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The big question about this run is, what comes back from CentralAmerica, PGI46L or monsoon moisture that forms another system?

Who wants to answer this question?

you see the NOGAPS merging a EPAC system so technically its a hybrid..... :lol:

Hurricaneman · #1091 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The big question about this run is, what comes back from CentralAmerica, PGI46L or monsoon moisture that forms another system?

Who wants to answer this question?

I think its a combination of the storm in the e-pac and 46 that merge

#1092 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:57 pm

I think it 46 thru and thru....the rest of the globals bring on this NE turn after moving over CA or remaining just E of CA(Euro) I have no doubt its 46 at least on the afternoon guidance and so far the 00z gfs

#1093 Postby **AJC3** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The big question about this run is, what comes back from CentralAmerica, PGI46L or monsoon moisture that forms another system?

Who wants to answer this question?

It looks complex, Luis, but after looking at both the high resolution 00Z GFS and 12Z ECM output, there is enough continuity in the H85 vorticity field to trace the vorticity associated with PGI46L into the SW Caribbean and then north-NNW out across Cuba. It may not be entirely PGI46L, but it's at the very least the primary contributor to the spinup.

I'd side with those who are posting the day 7+ charts in this thread. YOMV. In any event, until things become clearer, there's probably going to be some cross-posting between this thread and the long range model thread.

#1094 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:58 pm

Btw, convection is really firing over 46 now and barbados...looking more organized with a hint of cyclonic turning...

#1095 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:59 pm

Thanks Tony for clearing all up.

blp · #1096 Postby **blp** » Tue Sep 21, 2010 12:03 am

Vorticity is increasing and the area is getting larger.

Sanibel · #1097 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 21, 2010 12:04 am

Vortex wrote:Btw, convection is really firing over 46 now and barbados...looking more organized with a hint of cyclonic turning...

We'll see if it's there tomorrow. A lot of shear and upper air moving around nearby from the looks of it.

#1098 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 21, 2010 12:05 am

#1099 Postby **Vortex** » Tue Sep 21, 2010 12:15 am

00z cmc still updating but at H84 really strengthening and heading for Nicaragua/Honduras

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_084.jpg

floridasun78 · #1100 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue Sep 21, 2010 12:16 am

are their running HWRF on nonivest system? i saw it few page back

Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

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