Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[ROCK]

NOGAPS 180hr yucatan channel.....it did merge with the EPAC system...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

00Z Nogaps at end of run indicates system moving slowly NE from the Gulf of Honduras towards western cuba....Cutoff low over the ohio valley and another system south of DR...It's going to take some time to sort this out...






https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

CMC landfall CA H108


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_108.jpg

[ROCK]

CMC run...BOC anyone? BOC as in can it make it... Trof aint picking it up this run....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Hurricaneman]

CMC run...BOC anyone?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

stalls over belize

[Vortex]

CMC H126 emerging gulf of honduras...GFS/Nogaps/Canadian all very similar...long range canadian should be interesting later





http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_132.jpg

[ROCK]

waiting for long range to update...

[ROCK]

CMC run...BOC anyone?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

stalls over belize

that was the end run at 144hr over Belize and the entire section of the Yucatan....not really a stall...it was moving NW up to 144hr...

[Vortex]

CMC run...BOC anyone? BOC as in can it make it... Trof aint picking it up this run....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

lets see the long range rock....I say it heads NE for continuity...your right though it could get left behind...well find out in minutes....

[blp]

Seems like model consensus is building for possible Mathew to develop in the next 3 to 4 days and strike CA. Right now we have GFS, CMC, & NOGAPS. The EURO & HWRF, show the system not making landfall in CA and staying in the northwest Caribbean.

[ROCK]

CMC run...BOC anyone? BOC as in can it make it... Trof aint picking it up this run....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

lets see the long range rock....I say it heads NE for continuity...your right though it could get left behind...well find out in minutes....

nope it gets yanked out....trof just to deep....heading very near tip of FL then out to sea up the EC...

[Vortex]

look out new orleans.....



http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

[Vortex]

CMC run...BOC anyone? BOC as in can it make it... Trof aint picking it up this run....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

lets see the long range rock....I say it heads NE for continuity...your right though it could get left behind...well find out in minutes....

nope it gets yanked out....trof just to deep....heading very near tip of FL then out to sea up the EC...

that was yesterdays your refering to

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
This means the possibilities as far as landfall have expanded again I believe.

[ROCK]

yep wrong map....my bad..

[hurricaneCW]

Only this season can we have a western Caribbean system completely avoid the U.S. while it's heading to the north, that's unbelievable. The gfs has two systems in the long range that do that. That would be great for the U.S., very unfortunate for Cuba and the Bahamas. Unfortunately this isn't like a Cape Verde which will generally miss land, a western Caribbean system is trapped with land on all sides and somebody is going to get hit.

This is all in the long range though and we'll see plenty of more swings with these tracks in the future. I don't expect the current gfs track to stay intact very long.

[Vortex]

This could just as easily head into the BOC/Texas or miss FL to the east...CA looks agood bet for now thereafter spin the bottle.

[hurricaneCW]

This could just as easily head into the BOC/Texas or miss FL to the east...CA looks agood bet for now thereafter spin the bottle.

I just don't believe we're going to see such a mid to late October like track with this one. There generally tends to be too much troughiness in the long ranges that never pans out and the storms end up going further to the west because of stronger ridging. I definitely continue to believe that the eastern gulf and Florida are most at risk. I doubt that the system is going to miss Florida to the east based on where it's forming.

[ROCK]

This could just as easily head into the BOC/Texas or miss FL to the east...CA looks agood bet for now thereafter spin the bottle.

agree.....Ivan didnt make it on tonight....I am sure he has some thoughts....

[ROCK]

This could just as easily head into the BOC/Texas or miss FL to the east...CA looks agood bet for now thereafter spin the bottle.

I just don't believe we're going to see such a mid to late October like track with this one. There generally tends to be too much troughiness in the long ranges that never pans out and the storms end up going further to the west because of stronger ridging. I definitely continue to believe that the eastern gulf and Florida are most at risk. I doubt that the system is going to miss Florida to the east based on where it's forming.

if the trof misses it as the CMC is suggesting then a more westward solution might be in the making.....As Vortex said spin the bottle after CA.....CA isnt exactly flat either. Far enough inland will chew it up pretty good....