Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[ColinDelia]

0z GFS

TG,019, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 048, 130N, 710W, 26, 1007, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,019, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 054, 132N, 723W, 31, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,019, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 060, 139N, 740W, 32, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,019, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 066, 140N, 760W, 33, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,019, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 072, 140N, 772W, 36, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0066, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,019, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 078, 140N, 790W, 39, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0084, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,019, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 084, 141N, 810W, 44, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0131, 0063, 0000, 0068, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,019, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 090, 143N, 828W, 50, 1002, XX, 34, NEQ, 0112, 0067, 0000, 0102, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,019, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 096, 140N, 840W, 33, 1001, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,019, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 102, 140N, 852W, 23, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,036, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 138, 145N, 839W, 28, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,036, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 144, 158N, 820W, 31, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,036, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 150, 176N, 804W, 31, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,036, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 156, 184N, 808W, 28, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,036, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 162, 189N, 802W, 26, 1002, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,036, 2010092100, 03, GFSO, 168, 198N, 799W, 27, 1001, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF

[KWT]

That'd be a mighty unusual track for a system to take if you believe the GFS...the agreement is there though for a strong trough to dig down and if that happens Florida/Cuba and the Bahamas are of course most under threat.

I'd be surprised if it took such a hard NE motion like the GFS...that'd be uncommon this time of the year to say the least...I actually favour a Irene type track but that obviously still puts a large region under threat.

ps, the ECM is just about the worst case, though the CMC is also a pretty extreme run!

[ColinDelia]

0z CMC


0z NOGAPS

[chrisjslucia]

18 hours of continuous rain in St Lucia and squalls right now.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS has a closed low by 42 hours.


132 hours

[ColinDelia]

162 hours. Hopefully it doesn't spin in place over the NW caribbean for a day + like this GFS run

[cycloneye]

You dont see this from ECMWF every day so to speak. Wow. 00z EURO at 240 hours.

[ospreygrad]

Good morning. I woke up to see the latest GFS and Euro model runs and I have to say that my attention really was grabbed in a huge way. Those runs look downright scary with a monster hurricane being depicted by both models in the long range in the SE Gulf of Mexico. I know its early and changes are bound to occur in the long range. However, what is very worrisome to me is that over these past several days there seems to be general agrement for sure that we will have a major hurricane in the viciinity of the NW Caribbean Sea within the next week and likely folks in the Eastern Gulf and especially the Florida peninsula really need to stay vigilant!

[ColinDelia]

You dont see this from ECMWF every day so to speak. Wow. 00z EURO at 240 hours.

953 mb.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS


TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 042, 129N, 708W, 28, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 048, 130N, 720W, 31, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 054, 130N, 734W, 38, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0072, 0000, 0000, 0074, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 060, 133N, 751W, 33, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 066, 133N, 767W, 41, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0092, 0056, 0000, 0069, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 072, 131N, 781W, 43, 1002, XX, 34, NEQ, 0097, 0026, 0054, 0089, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 078, 131N, 799W, 55, 1000, XX, 34, NEQ, 0114, 0077, 0046, 0115, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 084, 138N, 811W, 58, 999, XX, 34, NEQ, 0071, 0075, 0086, 0082, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 090, 136N, 825W, 56, 998, XX, 34, NEQ, 0088, 0077, 0064, 0079, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 096, 137N, 840W, 50, 999, XX, 34, NEQ, 0093, 0077, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 102, 137N, 850W, 25, 1002, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 108, 140N, 860W, 23, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 114, 145N, 866W, 21, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 120, 157N, 867W, 22, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 126, 160N, 870W, 21, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 132, 164N, 869W, 17, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 138, 169N, 868W, 18, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 144, 173N, 865W, 20, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 150, 176N, 862W, 19, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 156, 182N, 855W, 22, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 162, 184N, 853W, 20, 1002, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 168, 183N, 854W, 20, 1001, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,014, 2010092106, 03, GFSO, 174, 186N, 853W, 23, 1000, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF

[Vortex]

should have an invest later today based on the early morning vis...

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...
AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 530
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better... Model support is rather interesting with most models showing a significant system in the western carrib then taking a Charley "type" track. Still has a couple days before it develops but everything appears to be conducive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-rgb.html

[xironman]

Reminds me of Karl a few weeks ago, took him a week to finally spin up

[cycloneye]

I smell that this thread will be locked very soon.

[Aric Dunn]

I smell that this thread will be locked very soon.

Just out of curiosity.. what does that smell like..lol

[Aric Dunn]

Euro is rather interesting.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[cycloneye]

I smell that this thread will be locked very soon.

Just out of curiosity.. what does that smell like..lol

Smells like 95L is in the air.

[Aric Dunn]

What I smell is a GFS full of crap ... lol

[Aquawind]

I smell that as well.. Igor forgot to flush..