Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

When you run the HWRF on 96E you can see the storm in the western carribean...that track would miss CA and probablly be similar to the Euro with a very powerful hurricane over the NW carribean in 6-7 days...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Frank2]

But at the present - look at that what appears to be an upper trough from the Bahamas to the NW Caribbean:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Ivanhater]

Just got back from PT so I'm up early

Wow at the Euro..looks to be heading due north toward the Florida Panhandle as the the trough lifts out..

[jlauderdal]

I smell that this thread will be locked very soon.

Just out of curiosity.. what does that smell like..lol

its the smell of fresh vegetation after the hurricane tore apart the trees, its very distinct for those that have never had the experience, roar of generators and electric company trucks rolling through the hood and when you dont have power and hear a truck you run to see if they are stopping on your block

[Ivanhater]

And just looked at the Canadian

[xironman]

What about this for a track?

[Frank2]

its the smell of fresh vegetation after the hurricane tore apart the trees, its very distinct for those that have never had the experience, roar of generators and electric company trucks rolling through the hood and when you dont have power and hear a truck you run to see if they are stopping on your block

It's the smell of the breakfast bar at a Sebring hotel - not a relaxing reason to stay at a hotel...

P.S. It'll be all right...

P.P.S. Still the environment ATTM in the NW CARIB is not conducive for development, and I'm sure that's why the NHC worded the TWO in a way that isn't very agressive...

[HURAKAN]

95L could be here soon

[Roxy]

I smell that this thread will be locked very soon.

Just out of curiosity.. what does that smell like..lol

its the smell of fresh vegetation after the hurricane tore apart the trees, its very distinct for those that have never had the experience, roar of generators and electric company trucks rolling through the hood and when you dont have power and hear a truck you run to see if they are stopping on your block

I thought it was the smell of dirty seawater that permeates the air as the eye passes over your house.

But to stay on topic, I like the FLA track best. Sorry Floridians. We don't need it.

[Aquawind]

What about this for a track?

No Thanks! That might be the better case scenario though..versus heading further into the GOM with more time and people. I highly doubt it will be east of Florida..

[GCANE]

A TUTT has been setup to the NE at approx 18N 58W.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Mostly likely will contribute to an enhanced poleward outflow channel and aid ventilation.

Shear is low over 46L.

Looks like a good chance for continued development.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

NOGAPS.....similar to the CMC, EURO in the short term...

[HURAKAN]

HWRF

[Vortex]

And just looked at the Canadian

I'd figure you'd be all over this late last night... Hope you got some sleep..heading into the office on about an hour....

[ROCK]

I see the 6z GFS still has it up the EC with a little scrape of FL.....CMC the left outlier now....ECM in the middle GFS right.....CMC counting on a weaker trof and stronger ridging.....ECM counting on weaker trof but not enough ridging as it gets left behind moves north......GFS trof picks it up...

[Aquawind]

A TUTT has been setup to the NE at approx 18N 58W.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

What is that TUTT forecast to do?

[ROCK]

CMC defintely further west we have seen so far....

[Vortex]

As mentioned a few days ago...Storms that form over the western carribean between September 21-30th are most likely to make landfall between New orleans and the FL panhandle...How this possible cutoff low/trough develops will have huge impacts on the final destination...

[Vortex]

Developing LLC moving just south of St. Vincent presently...this is going to be a very large cyclone...Invest up for sure later today....




http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[CourierPR]

its the smell of fresh vegetation after the hurricane tore apart the trees, its very distinct for those that have never had the experience, roar of generators and electric company trucks rolling through the hood and when you dont have power and hear a truck you run to see if they are stopping on your block

It's the smell of the breakfast bar at a Sebring hotel - not a relaxing reason to stay at a hotel...

P.S. It'll be all right...

P.P.S. Still the environment ATTM in the NW CARIB is not conducive for development, and I'm sure that's why the NHC worded the TWO in a way that isn't very agressive...

Please explain why the NW Caribbean is not conducive for development at this time or are you just tossing that out off the top of your head?