ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ivanhater]

168 hours

[Wx_Warrior]

Difference in 168h

[otowntiger]

Here is the animation of the 12z GFDL. Nothing strong at first run, but as Ivan said with HWRF, it wont stay that way for long.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

It seems to me that most of these models (The latest GFDL especially) with the exception of ships seems to show only a modest system at best, intensity wise. Even back to the earlier runs last week the system depicted hitting the Florida penninsula was only a cat 1 storm. Am I missing something?

[BigA]

Here is the animation of the 12z GFDL. Nothing strong at first run, but as Ivan said with HWRF, it wont stay that way for long.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

It seems to me that most of these models (The latest GFDL especially) with the exception of ships seems to show only a modest system at best, intensity wise. Even back to the earlier runs last week the system depicted hitting the Florida penninsula was only a cat 1 storm. Am I missing something?

NOGAPS, ECMWF, 00 run of CMC out to 240 hours, all show intense hurricanes. The truth is that it is very hard for models to forecast intensity; they are much better at track.

[Ivanhater]

192

[Vortex]

euro sure reminds me of wilma...

[Ivanhater]

216

[Vortex]

12Z ECM at 216 looks like a GFS set-up...Big-time troughiness up and down the eastern seaboard...would probablly head NNE/NE if this plays out


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP216.gif

[BigA]

Following the weakness right toward Florida...just like Wilma.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow, Euro shows Matthew just sitting in the western Carib. off the Yucatan intensifying steadily. Quite a scary solution for the Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

240

[BigA]

Wow, Euro shows Matthew just sitting in the western Carib. off the Yucatan intensifying steadily. Quite a scary solution for the Gulf.

100 miles, just on or off the Yucatan makes a world of difference for this model run in terms of the U.S getting a major hurricane (like Wilma) or a coreless, spread out tropical storm (like Isadore)

[SouthFloridawx]

240 Hours is a long time. That's like next Friday.

[SouthFloridawx]

Following the weakness right toward Florida...just like Wilma.

That's what it reminded me of also...

[Nimbus]

If we have a strong trough digging into the gulf that could shear this thing to pieces before landfall. That slowdown in the western Caribbean is kind of ominous. Maybe we will get super lucky and Mat will stall over the Yucatan.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like the Canadian and Euro (If you extract the last 2 positions out) are implying a big bend/panhandle threat which could help dissolve the remaining oil spill in the gulf at least thats a positive way of looking at it.

[Ivanhater]

trough is moving out at 240 hours which could leave this in the gulf or for it to move north slowly

[ROCK]

did the ECM just miss the trof connection?

240hr is so long....I mean really it is going to stall for days and days until 240? should be taken with a grain of salt. If it was showing this at 174hr I would be on board....but not at 240hr....I dont care that I have EURO blinders on...

[ROCK]

[quote="Ivanhater"]trough is moving out at 240 hours which could leave this in the gulf or for it to move north slowly

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... 0.gifquote]

great minds think alike....

[otowntiger]

240

It's hard for me to believe that it would take it 10 days to just get to the Yucatan channel. I realize that its showing it stalling out in that area for a while, but really I just don't see it. On the other hand I do recall Mitch hanging around like that for a long time. As bad as he was for Honduras he could have been much worse because he weakened quite a bit before finally drifting ashore.