ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Vortmax1]

but heat content is only a small part of that equation. Also Cat 5's need near perfect conditions to form.

I totally agree. Please don't think I'm screaming Cat 5 about this SoupBone. I'm not!
Based on the conditions present in the Caribbean the "potential" is there and so is the "possibility".
We'll see what does or does not happen in the next 10 days.

[KWT]

The one thing I'll say about the NW Caribbean is historically its well known to be supportive of 115kts+ type systems through most of the season but esp towards back end of September.

CZ, yeah you sorta just learn to know roughly the percentage by the obs around it and the presentation of the system!

[Sanibel]

In my opinion this has the best look of any developing system in the Caribbean this year.

[SoupBone]

but heat content is only a small part of that equation. Also Cat 5's need near perfect conditions to form.

I totally agree. Please don't think I'm screaming Cat 5 about this SoupBone. I'm not!
Based on the conditions present in the Caribbean the "potential" is there and so is the "possibility".
We'll see what does or does not happen in the next 10 days.

I didn't think that, it was just more of a counter observation. I like playing a devils advocate part.

i do think this is the GoM's first true threat of the season and it's going to be an interesting several days. I won't complain just yet because that trough should bring some nice fall weather with it this weekend.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010092118, , BEST, 0, 124N, 641W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

Looks like its staying on a broadly 275 type track there Cycloneye, every bit of latitude gained, esp once it does develop a LLC is going to be increasingly key for the track.

[N2FSU]

Is this the trough in question entering stage left, on the California coast?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

[Vortmax1]

[KWT]

Looking good thee Vortmax, maybe a little elongated looking in terms of the convection but its getting better organised steadily.

Models coming into good agreement by the way on a probable CA landfall, but what happens after that depends alot on the upper trough and how quickly it comes down along with the axis of the trough.

[expat2carib]

Off topic: Canada is getting pounded by Igor at the moment. Damage and casualties looks worse than Bermuda.

Back on topic. Weather in St. Lucia this early afternoon was bad. Better now. But the convection is still moving over the island

[Vortmax1]

Yeah, it does look stretched out right now.
I just checked the vorticity and it is not that impressive yet at any level either. This one still has a ways to go but the 50% looks right for now.

[Vortmax1]

Just a quick, basic look at climatology.
As we get into October there are big changes regarding steering and eventual tracking.
Development areas as well.

[GCANE]

LLC is looking like a TD; however, no recent SCAT data to see if its down to the surface.

Buoy 42059 at 15.1N 67.5W showing a pickup in continuous winds speed to near 20 knots.

[Frank2]

As Gil Clark (NHC) would say, "Screaming easterlies!":

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

the area is moving rapidly westward - the leading edge is about to cross 70W...

Frank

[cycloneye]

This observation from Caracas International Airport shows a light NNW wind.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/SVMI.html

Code: Select all

Conditions at  Sep 21, 2010 - 03:00 PM EDTSep 21, 2010 - 02:00 PM CDTSep 21, 2010 - 01:00 PM MDTSep 21, 2010 - 12:00 PM PDTSep 21, 2010 - 11:00 AM ADTSep 21, 2010 - 10:00 AM HDT
2010.09.21 1900 UTC 
Wind  from the NNW (340 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  mostly cloudy 
Temperature  87 F (31 C) 
Heat index  99.7 F (37.6 C) 
Dew Point  78 F (26 C) 
Relative Humidity  74% 
ob  SVMI 211900Z 34003KT 9999 FEW016 BKN300 31/26 1008 NOSIG 

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[CourierPR]

As Gil Clark (NHC) would say, "Screaming easterlies!":

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

the area is moving rapidly westward - the leading edge is about to cross 70W...

Frank

Frank, according to latest NHC basin discussion, the associated low is near 12N and 63W. The latest NHC basin outlook has it moving west at 15mph. Not exactly screaming.

[Weatherfreak000]

It seems vorticity is bigtime on the increase...models don't really see this developing quickly but currently it has been organizing fast. 8 P.M. should be code red.

[Blown Away]

TAFB Updated:

[HURAKAN]

Greatest vorticity is close to the coast

[GCANE]

Latest TRMM pass shows a couple small but very-high rain-rate cells around 13.5N 62.5W.

Air also looks to be very unstable.

VIS is showing some pop-up convection along the Venezuelan coast due to afternoon solar surface heating.

Interesting to see the cloud tops of that convection blow south.

It looks like outflow is strengthening equatorward.

Also, starting to see more overshooting cumulus nimbus above the cirrus.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html