ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[HURAKAN]

HWRF

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL also shows the NE component towards end.



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

[Vortex]

18Z AEMN shifts east from the 12z. Now right down the spine of FL..Anyone notice TVCN pulls up nearly stationary east of the yucatan and bypasses all land areas..


*For those that may not know what the AEMN is its the GFS ensemble.


https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_95.gif

[Ivanhater]

Getting ahead of yourself Vortex..I know it's hard not too, it's natural

The AEMN is just splitting the GFS Ensembles which is actually more spread out, with half going toward the Western Florida Panhandle, and the others east of Florida...

With the Euro and GFS showing landfall 300 plus hours out, it's way too soon to get a good idea who along the Gulf might see this. Central America is high priority right now.

[SouthFLTropics]

The models are zoning in on a threat in the general direction of the peninsula...Not what I was wanting to see...Fortunately we have a little time and the situation will most likely (hopefully) change. Unfortunately it is looking more and more like someone is going to be affected by a decent sized storm sometime next week. Ladies and Gentlemen this may be THE story of 2010. Stay tuned...

SFT

[MHurricanes]

18Z AEMN shifts east from the 12z. Now right down the spine of FL..Anyone notice TVCN pulls up nearly stationary east of the yucatan and bypasses all land areas..





https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_95.gif

Joe Bastardi sent me a note yesterday, warning about a problem with Florida. I hope he is wrong this one time.

[SouthFLTropics]

Getting ahead of yourself Vortex..I know it's hard not too, it's natural

The AEMN is just splitting the GFS Ensembles which is actually more spread out, with half going toward the Western Florida Panhandle, and the others east of Florida...

With the Euro and GFS showing landfall 300 plus hours out, it's way too soon to get a good idea who along the Gulf might see this. Central America is high priority right now.

I agree with this statement...CA is definitely the first priority. It is easy to forget about the people who are affected first and to zone in on an eventual CONUS landfall. With that being said I think this may pull up before CA and begin its northward trip.

SFT

[Vortex]

Getting ahead of yourself Vortex..I know it's hard not too, it's natural

The AEMN is just splitting the GFS Ensembles which is actually more spread out, with half going toward the Western Florida Panhandle, and the others east of Florida...

With the Euro and GFS showing landfall 300 plus hours out, it's way too soon to get a good idea who along the Gulf might see this. Central America is high priority right now.

Nothing like a good puzzle

[lonelymike]

The tropical models don't seem too enthused about making this storm a hurricane in the next 120. Wonder why?

[lonelymike]

With the Euro and GFS showing landfall 300 plus hours out


Are you serious? 300 hours???

[SeaBrz_FL]

Topic has been up 12 hours and already 12 pages worth of posts.

Compare that to our recurves for indication of what drives interest on this board whether folks want to admit it or not.

Kinda like NASCAR. The popularity would not be soaring if there were only boring cars going around and around the track. It's the possible close calls and occasional collisions that keep the fans coming back for more.

Ok, MODS, let this be my one off-topic post of the season. You know I only lurk and quietly rely on this Active Tropic forum for my sanity (and I did contribute $$$ this year )

Back on topic, I just knew that eventually the protecting patterns would change this year for FL and S US. I've been to Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan over the past three weeks with nary a worry, but now I'm looking. I'm going back into my conch shell now, but will stay quietly vigilant. Thanks in advance to the rest of you that provide such great long-term forecasts and intelligent discussion.

~SB

[Steve H.]

Well MHurricanes, what did the secret JB note say I think we have no real idea yet where this is going to end up. Too far out yet. Synoptics will change again. TPC still has low confidence.

[ronjon]

Interesting....

CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1948...A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE PASSED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS. THE LOWEST
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE RECORDED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WAS 963.4 MILLIBARS
(28.45 INCHES OF MERCURY) AT BOCA CHICA. THE WIND SPEED AT THIS SAME
SITE REACHED 122 MPH...BEFORE THE ANEMOMETER WAS BLOWN AWAY. A 5
FOOT STORM TIDE WAS RECORDED IN TAVERNIER. 4.53 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
IN KEY WEST...SETTING THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED
IN KEY WEST ON SEPTEMBER 21ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 62 YEARS
LATER.

[ROCK]

Getting ahead of yourself Vortex..I know it's hard not too, it's natural

The AEMN is just splitting the GFS Ensembles which is actually more spread out, with half going toward the Western Florida Panhandle, and the others east of Florida...

With the Euro and GFS showing landfall 300 plus hours out, it's way too soon to get a good idea who along the Gulf might see this. Central America is high priority right now.

well said...300+hrs actually for the GFS and EURO....hard to believe it will take that long really but thats the guidance we have right now. As of now its west into CA....

[Vortex]

00Z NAM H72 Just NE of Honduras


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[Florida1118]

Already looks like a good hurricane on NAM

00Z NAM H72 Just NE of Honduras


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[otowntiger]

The tropical models don't seem too enthused about making this storm a hurricane in the next 120. Wonder why?

I've been noticing that too. It seems that for some unknown reason several models don't make this much of a storm.

[Vortex]

H78 Just North of Honduras



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

The tropical models don't seem too enthused about making this storm a hurricane in the next 120. Wonder why?

I've been noticing that too. It seems that for some unknown reason several models don't make this much of a storm.

Actually, that's quite normal otowntiger. Like some of the mets have pointed out, the models are horrible at predicting strength, especially when it's not even a depression yet. I don't even look at the strength forecasts right now. Even it it was pointing to a cat 5 I wouldn't look at them, because I know how horrible the models are at predicting strength...So disregard the strength forecasts for now until it actually becomes a depression and then you'll probably see the models change their tune...

[MWatkins]

If you look at the globals, most of the significant intensification is happening after day 5. I think the hurricane models (and I mentioned this on Mark's show tonight) are simply not ramping up because they only run through 5 days. I have a strong feeling that they will start showing more late period intensification as we get into tomorrow and Thursday, since the most favorable upper environment won't be in place until early next week.

MW