ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[caneseddy]

12Z GFS out till 54 hours

At 54 hours, heading towards border of Nicaragua and Honduras with a low over the Great Lakes


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro ensembles are still diverging

[caneseddy]

00z Euro ensembles are still diverging

The ominous thing about those ensembles is that all of them do not have 95L going into CA but rather skirting the coast until the western Caribbean, which is huge in terms of future intensity. I still believe this will be a Florida storm

[Ivanhater]

Yeah..eastern GOM is a good bet..but what part of Florida? Peninsula or Panhandle?

half the Euro ensembles and Canadian like the Panhandle...GFS likes the Peninsula

[caneseddy]

12Z GFS at 72 hrs: makes landfall on the border of Nicaragua/Honduras

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif

At 78 hrs: skirting the north coast of Honduras

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal078.gif

At 84 hours: in the Gulf of Honduras

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal084.gif

At 90 hours: still drifting in the Gulf of Honduras

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal090.gif

At 96 hours: still sitting in the Gulf of Honduras

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal096.gif

From 102-108: still sitting in the Gulf of Honduras

At 114 hours: moving slowly north, but mostly drifting

At 120 hours, moving along the Belize/YP coast

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

At 126 hours, landfall in Belize

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal126.gif

At 138 hours, emerges right back into the Gulf of Honduras

At 144 hours, finally starting to move N

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal138.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

Although I realize that what the models predict strength wise doesn't really matter until the system develops,
but it is interesting how the models aren't showing the bombing hurricane that a couple of the models
were showing a few days ago...

[caneseddy]

12Z GFS at 156, 162, and 174: starting to intensify and growing in size and moving away from land

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal156.gif
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal162.gif

Also, GFS stil lis depicting the cut off-low over the borders of MO, OK and AR

[Ivanhater]

The position of the cut-off low is very different comparing the 00z run and the 12z run at similar times

00z run



12z run

[StormClouds63]

Like Eloise (1975) and Opal (1995), this has the look of going into the FL panhandle. I think it could be as far east as Apalachicola or St. Marks. Again, just an early guess.

[Vortex]

going to make a run for the panhandle?

[Ivanhater]

ugh...storm further east is becoming dominant on this run

[SFLcane]

[Ivanhater]

That's a completely different storm!

[Vortex]

:eek:

[Vortex]

HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hurricaneman]

I think in the end, the double storm deal will turn out to be bogus, I just think its a bad case of convective feedback, but I do think there will be a Hurricane of the size modeled but it will end up being the first and original storm

[Ivanhater]

Trough is much shallower this run compared to he 00z run..it develops a totally different storm in the central Caribbean and rides north...

The invest 95L is over the northern tip of the Yucatan

[caneseddy]

I'm confused; is that 95l/Matthew or a future storm???

[HURAKAN]

[ronjon]

Looks like the GFS is still struggling with the upper air pattern and likely bogus second low. What is that like a 1,000 mile difference in the position of the cutoff low from the 00z to 12z runs? Next...wait for the Euro..certainly has been alot more stable in its runs lately.