EPAC: INVEST 97E

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009221445
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010092212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972010
EP, 97, 2010092212, , BEST, 0, 135N, 960W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Kingarabian]

Where is this at?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GEORGETTE...APPROACHING THE COAST OF SONORA MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE LITTLE...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[HURAKAN]

Where is this at?

Gulf of Tehuantepec

[bob rulz]

This became an invest at 10% and they waited until 40% to declare pre-Georgette an invest. Strange.

[srainhoutx]

This disturbance actually has some interest as it fits rather well with the general gyre of Lower Pressure we are seeing in guidance for 95L.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 23 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 23 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

778
ABPZ20 KNHC 241134
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 24 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Migle]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 24 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

[Kingarabian]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 25 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SOME
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 25 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS LOW
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Kingarabian]

Um... Sheared apart?

[Kingarabian]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 25 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

[Migle]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Heading towards the WSW towards the warmer waters, still has a chance though shear clearly isn't at all favourable for this system yet...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI