ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

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jlauderdal
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#261 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:36 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah its still a little too far east to really make the most of it but the conditions are getting there...

For those who argue it should be dropped even below 30%...look at how terrible Karl looked even 24-36hrs before it got upgraded...


those that argue for 30% are living in the here and now and not for the next 48hours which is the time period, furthermore we know PREDICT found some winds that would favor development of a TD sooner rather than later
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#262 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:38 pm

2pm TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
DAYS.
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Re:

#263 Postby btangy » Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:41 pm

artist wrote:btangy- is there anywhere we can access that data as it comes in?


No, it's all internal right now. All I can do is report to you what I see coming in to my screen as it's processed. However, you should be able to see the flight tracks at http://rtmm.nsstc.nasa.gov/current_missions.html. Click on "RTMM Classic for GRIP" as long as you have Google Earth, then in the menu select Aircraft --> DC8 Flight Track or GV Flight Track --> Complete. You can also overlay satellite imagery. It should update automatically.
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Re: Re:

#264 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:47 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
KWT wrote:Yeah its still a little too far east to really make the most of it but the conditions are getting there...

For those who argue it should be dropped even below 30%...look at how terrible Karl looked even 24-36hrs before it got upgraded...


those that argue for 30% are living in the here and now and not for the next 48hours which is the time period, furthermore we know PREDICT found some winds that would favor development of a TD sooner rather than later


so much for 30, its now at 60 which makes perfect sense as conditions gradually improve over time, probably hold at 60 next update then go up from there as this thing gets into more favorable area
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#265 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:13 pm

NWS Tampa Bay AFD:

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF LONG TERM. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
STRETCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AS A RATHER STRONG DEVELOPING LOW
DIGS FROM CANADA TOWARDS THE SE. THE FIRST BIG CONCERN IS IF THIS
LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT OVER THE REGION. CURRENTLY...THE ECMWF AND
GFS WANT TO PUSH A TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD FROM THE CARRIBEAN
HELPING TO KEEP THE EFFECTS OF THE OF THE MID LATITUDE SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE STATE. NEXT CONCERN IS THE FORMATION OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND THE NORTHWARD PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE STATE. ECMWF IS
MUCH QUICKER THAN GFS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PUSHING EXCESS
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TUES. REGARDLESS...SINCE THESE
FEATURES AND THEIR IMPACTS ARE IN THE TAIL-END OF THE MODEL
PACKAGES AND THE LONG TERM FORECAST...WILL NOT BITE ON THE
SOLUTIONS UNTIL THE SYSTEMS ACTUALLY BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AND MODELS
BECOME MUCH MORE CONSISTENT.
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#266 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:17 pm

Image

Latest
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#267 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:23 pm

Image

Overshooting tops
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#268 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:24 pm

Image

Latest 72 hours
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#269 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:31 pm

Image

850 mb vorticity has improved significantly
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#270 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:32 pm

Image

3 hours ago
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#271 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:36 pm

AL, 95, 2010092218, , BEST, 0, 126N, 713W, 25, 1008, DB

1 mb lower
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#272 Postby Weatherboy1 » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:37 pm

HPC maps are updated for Wednesday. Here's the Day 7 "best guess" for where 95L might be at the time. If you scroll through the maps, you see that they're forecasting a front diving all the way into the Gulf, which seems to me like it's all but inevitable this thing gets pulled N. Question is if it's pulled due N, NNE, NE, etc. Only way out otherwise, in my opinion, is if it just barrels due W and plows directly into Central America fairly quickly.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=ter
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#273 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:42 pm

If is going to develop, it has to slow down as is in a sprint.

LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 71.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =20KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#274 Postby ColinDelia » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:43 pm

5KOVERLIBOR wrote:
Very true, but could we surmise that the ramp up in activity coincided with the significantly improving instability, even though it only seemed to achieve seasonal norm?


I would think so.

Incidentally, the SHIPS model already includes a factor for instability; Theta E. If you look at the output for this invest you'll notice it in there.
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/1009 ... _ships.txt

According to SHIPS this is a negative factor in the next 5 days but not a large factor compared to the other ones.

Not that SHIPS is applicable for a non-TC but just in general it doesn't have anywhere near the correlation with intensity that SSTs and shear do.

Maybe it's different as far as cyclogenesis? I don't know but maybe that will kick off some research.
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Re:

#275 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:45 pm

HURAKAN wrote:AL, 95, 2010092218, , BEST, 0, 126N, 713W, 25, 1008, DB

1 mb lower


That location is almost on the coast of Venezuela.
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Re: Re:

#276 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:47 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:AL, 95, 2010092218, , BEST, 0, 126N, 713W, 25, 1008, DB

1 mb lower


That location is almost on the coast of Venezuela.


Image

but moving away
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#277 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:51 pm

Image

closer look to the vorticity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#278 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:53 pm

It can't get any inflow, so in my opinion you we see some arcing storms above the low pressure but nothing below and it all goes poof tonight again. Maybe tomorrow when it moves away from land we'll get some additional development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#279 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:54 pm

Anti-cyclone is getting closer too.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#280 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:If is going to develop, it has to slow down as is in a sprint.

LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 71.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =20KT


It went from 12 knots this morning to 20knots?!?! Crazy...
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