ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[dwsqos2]

Hmm...12Z guidance tends to support my dud call. New call: I doubt that 95L ever becomes stronger than 50 knots.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ColinDelia]

closer look to the vorticity

Big change the past 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

Sab Dvorak T numbers.

22/1745 UTC 13.4N 70.5W TOO WEAK 95L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Best Track has it at 12.6N-71.3W while SAB is at 13.4N-70.5W. Which one is right?

[FLpanhandle91]

Has anyone else noticed a little more spinning with the convection in recent frames?

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

tomorrow should be interesting

[SouthFloridawx]

A lot more convection this afternoon. Could dry air from the Continent be inhibiting development?

[SoupBone]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

tomorrow should be interesting

Do you see the cloud structures racing toward the NW in front of 95L?

[otowntiger]

Hmm...12Z guidance tends to support my dud call. New call: I doubt that 95L ever becomes stronger than 50 knots.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, the models (or several of them anyway) seem to be less and less enthused with each successive run.

[Weatherfreak000]

Hmm...12Z guidance tends to support my dud call. New call: I doubt that 95L ever becomes stronger than 50 knots.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't believe this is at all what is going here. The models actually show an environment that is conducive to alot of strengthening, as well as SST's and TCHP that support a monstrous hurricane effect. The reason the models are keeping it weak is due to complicated interaction with landmass. Whether or not this hold true remains to be seen, but you cannot really say the models are supporting your claim when in actuality if the storm moves slightly north or gets stronger faster, the situation is going to be completely different.


This is a very complicated solution and it's still very far out. I expect the intensity of the model guidance to fluctuate wildly, especially if this manages to avoid landmass.

[Blown Away]

Sab Dvorak T numbers.
22/1745 UTC 13.4N 70.5W TOO WEAK 95L -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Best Track has it at 12.6N-71.3W while SAB is at 13.4N-70.5W. Which one is right?

A little bump to the north with the positioning?? IMO, the reason some models are showing a weak system is because 95L is over land to long. I think few hundred miles will make the difference between a hurricane and a weak low as it spins in the Gulf of Honduras area.

[Hurricaneman]

If the steering currents remain as is or close to it, it would not make landfall in Houndoras and would probably be the worst case, but the currents will probably change between now and then

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm1.GIF

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Follow us on
Twitter

[cycloneye]

Sab Dvorak T numbers.
22/1745 UTC 13.4N 70.5W TOO WEAK 95L -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Best Track has it at 12.6N-71.3W while SAB is at 13.4N-70.5W. Which one is right?

A little bump to the north with the positioning?? IMO, the reason some models are showing a weak system is because 95L is over land to long. I think few hundred miles will make the difference between a hurricane and a weak low as it spins in the Gulf of Honduras area.

Regardless of what is the position, if it continues to race westward (20kts at 18z) and not gain suficient latitude, it will be at land faster not allowing for strong development.

[Sanibel]

That Atlantic feature seen in the dry air wedged on top of 95L has snuck in behind it and pinched down on its back. It should scoot away from under it and get better convected further west.

[x-y-no]

IMO, the reason some models are showing a weak system is because 95L is over land to long. I think few hundred miles will make the difference between a hurricane and a weak low as it spins in the Gulf of Honduras area.

Maybe, but I'd note that the HWRF keeps it out over water, yet still only has a TS at the end of the run (126 hours)

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[CourierPR]

The convection south of the Dominican Republic appears to have become more concentrated in the past few hours.

[cwachal]

The latest.

I think I can finally see a LLC ... now convection needs to build around it and we will have a TD

[HURAKAN]

72 hours ... intensifying over land? LOL

[Stormcenter]

It's looks as though 95L will not be an issue for folks west of 90 and probably even further eastward. GREAT NEWS. IMO


NWS Afternoon Discussion New Orleans, LA

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS LIKELY TO
FORM IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE LONGER TERM PATTERN AND THE ECMWF MODEL FAVOR A
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING
NEAR WESTERN CUBA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SHOULD REMAIN PROTECTED FROM ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY.

DRIER/LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN TODAY WHICH IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND TOO
SLOW PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. 22/TD

[Vortex]

As we progress through the evening/overnight hours the convection should increase in coverage and intensity…The LLC will become better defined as SA has less of an impact on inflow from the south. 95 will begin to draw in deep tropical moisture from the SW Caribbean and Pacific.. We should see a marked increase in overall organization within the next 12-24 hours…