ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vortex]

H108 basically stationary still...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[gatorcane]

Well looks like 18Z GFS does not develop the east low......hmmmm..

Moving NE at 132 hours:

[Vortex]

H150 strenthening and heading towards SFL...looks alot like Hurricane King 1950




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[jasons2k]

This is why I like JB, the "he can't be wrong" map has gotta make you laugh.

Just because this is an AccuWeather product does not mean it is JB's personal forecast. Yes, he does have input into their forecast since he is their Sr. Tropical "expert", but oftentimes his personal thoughts are not necessarily in-sync with the "official" AccuWx forecast. Just something to keep in mind...be careful when pinning something to one particular individual.

[gatorcane]

H150 strenthening and heading towards SFL...looks alot like Hurricane King 1950




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

Notice the cutoff low is retrograding back West...Bermuda High gradually builds in and blocks it from moving NE....

[btangy]

The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF are all too slow according to my rough estimate. The HWRF has a significant N bias in the short term already. The ECMWF looks to be the fastest of the models and is verifying best in terms of forward speed. The 12 hr forecast from the 00Z run last night matched up almost perfectly with our PREDICT analysis earlier today using Curacao's radar data and our preliminary GV dropsonde data.

Additionally, the GRIP-DC8 has also found a large region of southwesterly winds on the S side of the system from their afternoon flight through AL95. Although, the circulation appears to be best defined at 700-850 mb. They also found 46 knot E winds at 925 mb N of the system, but possibly due to an outflow boundary.

[gatorcane]

Landfall South Florida (only 7 days from now):

[lester]

^^ that's a bit quicker than the previous gfs models hmmm

[Brent]

This run is a lot faster.

[gatorcane]

The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF are all too slow according to my rough estimate. The HWRF has a significant N bias in the short term already. The ECMWF looks to be the fastest of the models and is verifying best in terms of forward speed. The 12 hr forecast from the 00Z run last night matched up almost perfectly with our PREDICT analysis earlier today using Curacao's radar data and our preliminary GV dropsonde data.

Additionally, the GRIP-DC8 has also found a large region of southwesterly winds on the S side of the system from their afternoon flight through AL95. Although, the circulation appears to be best defined at 700-850 mb. They also found 46 knot E winds at 925 mb N of the system, but possibly due to an outflow boundary.

The 18Z GFS has really sped up on development and its northward turn. What do you think about the 18Z GFS?

[Vortex]

H174 SFL hit...very similar to King in 1950



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[gatorcane]

H174 SFL hit...very similar to King in 1950



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[blazess556]

The models have no idea what is going to happen. The synoptic changes between the 12z Gfs and the most recent 18z gfs run are laughable. +

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 18Z GFS brings a hurricane from the south right up the I-95 corridor of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade. Whoa if that verifies.

[blazess556]

Looks like the 18Z GFS brings a hurricane from the south right up the I-95 corridor of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade. Whoa if that verifies.

It then follows it up with another storm in the western caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 18Z GFS brings a hurricane from the south right up the I-95 corridor of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade. Whoa if that verifies.

It then follows it up with another storm in the western caribbean.

Yep, and here is hurricane #2, looks like it is headed north in the NW Carib, and stronger

[gatorcane]

Hurricane #2, landfall in South FL again. That would be two hurricanes within 10 days of each other making landfall in the same area (Miami-Dade)

Good thing is that is 336 hours out which is likely not going to verify!

[btangy]

The 18Z GFS has really sped up on development and its northward turn. What do you think about the 18Z GFS?

The ECMWF 12Z position on 9/24/10 is 14.2N, 82.5W, which is just off the coast of Nicaragua. This is significantly faster than even the 18Z GFS run (by about 12 hours!). Looking at the GFS, it has been trending more northward. Can't really rule it out, especially since it has support from its ensemble, but based on trends today, I would hedge with the faster and more southern solution at this time.

[Vortex]

Hurricane #2, landfall in South FL again. That would be two hurricanes within 10 days of each other making landfall in the same area (Miami-Dade)

Good thing is that is 336 hours out which is likely not going to verify!

Well gator you'll called it weeks ago

[PTrackerLA]

Looking at the vort map it looks like the first storm to hit south FL comes from a different area of vorticity to the east of where 95L/Matthew will be. Definitely taking this run with a grain of salt considering the drastic swings we are seeing with the models.