ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Blown Away]

12Z Canadian ensemble very near SW Florida at H156





http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... PUS156.gif

But still a ways out in the Gulf. If this is moving more N than NE then it is easily headed for the big bend area of FL or even the panhandle when wobbles are taken into account.

This run is farther east and these models are much faster bringing 95L towards EGOM/Florida than earlier!

[Vortex]

HWRF 18Z much further West



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps further west




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok so it looks like the GFS ensembles have shifted west while the Canadian ensembles have moved east. I still think this is eventually a Florida storm but I'm leaning more towards a West Coast, Big Bend area hit versus the immediate Metro Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach area. We will see some out effects but as of right now I think from Fort Myers North is more of a concern. Maybe this is the year that Tampa gets it's big storm. I've been saying that for over a month now.

SFT

[Vortex]

As has been said, models have a very difficult time with cut-off lows....It's a crap shoot...Climatology says any storm forming between Septermber 21-30th in the western Carribean the majority of the time makes landfall between New Orleans and the FL panahandle...This is far from a lock....

[ronjon]

The 18Z HWRF and early peak of the 18z NOGAPs both trend west. Add in the GFS ensemble and perhaps we're seeing a trend - or not? Windshield wiper effects anyone? It all is coming down to the position of the cutoff low. The eastern most model, the GFS, brings the cutoff SE down near the Miss coast. The more western models retrograde the cutoff slowly W or NW into the southern plains. The ECM on the other hand, digs a major trough down to the gulf coast. More waiting to sort out the upper level pattern. Probably best to punt and go with climo now. Where is that CLIPPER track??

[SouthFLTropics]

It would appear to me that the models that are shifting west have picked up on the fact that 95L is sprinting across the Caribbean and will arive in Central America much sooner than originally thought. That is going to allow it to get much further west that previously indicated. With that being said the question is does it still get picked up and punted back to the NE or are we going to see a turn straight to the north when the west run ends?
SFT

[plasticup]

It is too soon for a GOM/Florida freak-out. Honduras/Belize is still the most likely destination, although their savior will be dangerous for the SE US.

[Vortex]

12Z Ukmet a further east then the 00z run and turns due n along the yucatan instead of getting buried over CA...Alot of flipping going on...Still the BIG 2 Gfs/Ecm are in decent agreement...looking forward to the 00z package more than ever...



UK loop:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

18Z MM5 big shift East and stronger..


http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

[ronjon]

Hey Vortex here's the 12z UKMET loop - you posted the link to NOGAPs.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalukmetLoop.html

[Vortex]

Hey Vortex here's the 12z UKMET loop - you posted the link to NOGAPs.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalukmetLoop.html

Thx Ron, late nights model watching and full work days are catching up

[SouthFLTropics]

Well I think the main thing we can take from the 18Z model runs is that we have a 50/50 shift. Models that were east are now more west and models that were west are now more east. In other words we are really back to square one. The 00Z Euro tonight may be THE most anticipated model run so far this year for us people in the CONUS. With that being said I think the people in Central America better batten down the hatches. Even if it doesn't get strong this could dump a ton of rain down there and cause some major problems.

SFT

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL stronger and shifts east with turn to NNE at end of run....



*Peaks at 91Kts on this run



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

Here's the 12Z GFDL for comparison...18Z defintely stronger and not quite as far SW as the 12Z...Whats concerning if the GFDL verifies much of the circulation will never go completely inland....



*Peaks at 72Kts


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[LaBreeze]

18z GFS Ensemble Mean.......NEW ORLEANS!!

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal204.gif

Seriously doubting this scenario due to front and high pressure

[Dean4Storms]

18Z GFDL stronger and shifts east with turn to NNE at end of run....



*Peaks at 91Kts on this run



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Looks to be showing a weakness along the eastern Gulf States at least at the surface, think this would end up in the Panhandle or Big Bend if it went out that far.

[Steve]

>>18Z GFDL stronger and shifts east with turn to NNE at end of run....

Though I hate the 06 and 18z runs, it's duly noted. It's way too far out to tell what's going to happen in the end game (anything from another Mexican storm to something shooting up the Bahamas). But it at least appears that there will be some interaction with Central America and potentially the Yucatan Peninsula. After that, all bets are off. Do we get something crossing the FL Peninsula and then heading up the East Coast? Do we get something heading toward Florida only to be slowed down and nudged back NNW/NNW toward the NE Gulf? Could strong ridging build in (ala the teleconnection from the last WPAC typhoon) and even send it WNW or W across the southern or central gulf into N MEX/S TX?

After Karl, the only hotspots left from my late August proposition would be another potential brush-by for NC, the entire State of Florida and eastern portions of the NC/NE Gulf (saying Slidell over to St. George) and Central America. Everywhere else was impacted as suggested. I still think that with the analog seasons, we're going to see a Georges/Opal/Katrina type system (moderate 2/3 even though none of their paths which got them to LA/MS/FL are remotely similar) fading NNE/NE at landfall. I think we'll see something in the SW Caribbean (probably beyond 95L) that's going to rain on them hard in October. And I still think there's a shot for coastal North Carolina, but that's gotten to be a longer shot with Igor passing much farther east than Earl did.

We've got 7-8 days to stay glued to our computers until the upper pattern shakes out. Any of the possibilities the models have suggested all the way to things they haven't are in play right now.

^^^^ The preceding post is the opinion of this poster only ^^^^

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 230035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC THU SEP 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100923 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100923  0000   100923  1200   100924  0000   100924  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  71.6W   13.2N  73.9W   13.9N  76.1W   14.5N  78.4W
BAMD    12.8N  71.6W   13.1N  73.8W   13.2N  76.2W   13.5N  78.6W
BAMM    12.8N  71.6W   13.2N  73.7W   13.5N  76.0W   14.0N  78.4W
LBAR    12.8N  71.6W   13.2N  74.5W   13.6N  77.6W   14.2N  80.7W
SHIP        30KTS          39KTS          50KTS          64KTS
DSHP        30KTS          39KTS          50KTS          64KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100925  0000   100926  0000   100927  0000   100928  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  80.7W   16.8N  85.4W   18.1N  89.2W   17.4N  91.1W
BAMD    13.9N  80.8W   15.4N  84.6W   17.5N  87.1W   18.5N  88.1W
BAMM    14.6N  80.6W   16.2N  85.1W   17.8N  88.6W   17.6N  90.2W
LBAR    14.8N  83.7W   16.9N  89.4W   18.4N  93.2W   17.6N  91.2W
SHIP        79KTS         101KTS         110KTS         115KTS
DSHP        79KTS         101KTS          82KTS          33KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR =  71.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  69.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  12.3N LONM24 =  65.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[ronjon]

That 18z GFDL run is now starting to make me a little nervous. Down to 964 mb and heading N-NE through the Yucatan straits in 5 days. Yikes!