ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS Ensemble Mean.......NEW ORLEANS!!

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal204.gif

Seriously doubting this scenario due to front and high pressure

hmmm, this is NEXT Friday, this is missing this first trough this weekend and then getting pushed more NW by the ridge building back in from the Atlantic, very plausible at this point if the trough is overdone by the globals.

[Vortex]

That 18z GFDL run is now starting to make me a little nervous. Down to 964 mb and heading N-NE through the Yucatan straits in 5 days. Yikes!

Thats my concern BIGTIME ron...we all know what the NW carribean is capable of...

[Ivanhater]

GFDL heading north through the Yucatan channel is very concerning

HWRF is in close agreement with the Canadian and GFS ensembles....

GFS Operational is constantly changing the placement of the cut-off low..not surprising though. It is fun to try to guess but I think we need to focus on development (probably tomorrow) and how this deals with Central America.

[Wx_Warrior]

I agree with Ivan....I wouldn't much stock with final GFS soluation (especially 18z).

[Vortex]

As Ivan pointed out the GFS ensembles have shifted hard to the left..The mean is right across the panhandle of FL..Iv'e noticed on many occasions the next run by the GFS falls in line with the majority of the prior runs ensemble..Not a given but i've noticed this many times this season. I wouldn't be surprised abit to see the GFS shift west on the 00z run...

[hurricaneCW]

We're going to have to go with climatology with this one and probably count mainland Mexico and Texas out, even western Louisiana is probably out of the picture. It will interesting to see if the circulation is able to meander just offshore or at least partially offshore instead of being completely inland for a long time. That will make a huge difference in the intensity and even the track as a much weaker storm will likely traverse further to the west.

[srainhoutx]

The whole disturbance is moving W, quickly. The ECMWF has been about 12-16 hour faster with this feature. All the guidance has struggled, some more than others no doubt. Interesting days ahead with a Mid Latitude storm to add to the mix. The Euro should have some updated data from research recon with the 00Z run.

[Vortex]

notice the image below how almost all guidance now just grazes NE Nicaragua then turns N east of the yucatan....this would keep it over water much of the time..Im really surprised the operation 18Z GFS was so far east given only 3 ensembles are near where the operational placed it....


Anyone know why when most of its members are so different from the operational how we derive at such a solution?




https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_95.gif

[Vortex]

18Z model graph with the hurricane models shown is very concerning....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... nvest2.gif

[Vortex]

18Z Dynamical models same trend...




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... t2best.gif

[Florida1118]

18Z Dynamical models same trend...




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... t2best.gif

I think its a pretty good bet its going to be pulled by the trough. I still think AL and the FL panhandle for landfall.

[Ivanhater]

There is the updates GFS ensemble map

[Vortex]

18Z GFS ensemble close-up...





http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... nvest2.gif

[Blown Away]

18Z Dynamical models same trend...
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... t2best.gif

Another trend is the models are now only brushing the north coast of Honduras which may be why we are seeing the models showing more intensity.

[cycloneye]

18Z Dynamical models same trend...
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... t2best.gif

Another trend is the models are now only brushing the north coast of Honduras which may be why we are seeing the models showing more intensity.

A example is SHIP and DSHP are up to 101kts.

SHIP 79KTS 101KTS
DSHP 79KTS 101KTS

[ROCK]

Hey where is that dude saying it aint going West of 90??? I pulled his file and got his quote ready to serve him some nice flaming crow.....

GFS is sniffing something with the ensembles....totally split camp almost. Good to be back...

[Blown Away]

Hey where is that dude saying it aint going West of 90??? I pulled his file and got his quote ready to serve him some nice flaming crow.....

GFS is sniffing something with the ensembles....totally split camp almost. Good to be back...

Wondering where you were, you now have a few ensembles moving your way which means your back in the game baby!!

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey where is that dude saying it aint going West of 90??? I pulled his file and got his quote ready to serve him some nice flaming crow.....

GFS is sniffing something with the ensembles....totally split camp almost. Good to be back...

I am right here watching.....

Oh btw, Comanche is right. I was talking about 95L/Matthew.

[Comanche]

Hey where is that dude saying it aint going West of 90??? I pulled his file and got his quote ready to serve him some nice flaming crow.....

GFS is sniffing something with the ensembles....totally split camp almost. Good to be back...

I think he meant as far as US interest west of 90, at least that is how I took it.

Be careful on pulling quotes and serving crow Rock, you might find yourself with quite a"crow gut" yourself.

[BigB0882]

Interesting how the ensembles are split (not evenly) with either LA landfall or Florida and nothing at all inbetween.