Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Hello to everyone! I'm watching very carefully 95L regardless of the strenght of the system some models are predicting that it will produce heavy rains in Central America, let's see what happens I'll keep you updated with any important news from the region.

[bvigal]

Good morning, neighbors!! Here in BVI, the N beaches are still rough today with breaking rollers, another pulse having entered the area overnight.

I notice that at 00z, TAFB finally drew the low (at last, 95L) on the surface map as a tropical wave! Been wondering about that, as several met services referring to it as a wave for a while now.

Sorry to hear of all the rain, winds, flooding in the Windwards/S Leewards. Hopefully this thing will pick up and move out and give you some sun soon! Macrocane, you are wise to keep an eye on this!

Gusty, glad to hear from you!! Thanks for the link! I always use Google "Language Tools" to translate, you just enter the URL. The translation will never be conversational, no matter what site you use, just a function of automated translation software. But at least it's understandable!

[abajan]

Flood warning in effect, peeps:



Synopsis: A Low level trough is affecting the island.

Weather: This Afternoon and Tonight: Generally cloudy to overcast with moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain, scattered thunderstorms and gusty winds.

Wind: E- ESE at 15-35 Km/h with higher gusts near showers.
Sea: Moderate in open water, Swells 2.0-2.5m Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.

Source: http://www.cdera.org/weather/barbados/index.php

(Edited to include source)

[msbee]

Be careful down there, abajan!

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 211904
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST TUE SEP 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD BUT MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL REGION THE REST OF
THE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL CREATE AN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. FURTHER EAST A TUTT LOW JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY...THEN LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...EXPECT THE NOW PREVAILING EASTERLIES TO AID
IN PUSHING AFTERNOON CONVECTION WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS EARLY MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND
TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BRINGING A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND
THROUGH FRIDAY HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN INCREASE...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TUTT LOW ALONG WITH AN INDUCED
MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECT TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. THESE FEATURE WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR...INCLUDING TJMZ...THROUGH 21/22Z...WITH A
VCTS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJPS AND TJBQ. VFR CONDS
THEN EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES AFT 21/22Z...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GUSTY ENE WINDS EXPECTED AFT 22/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...DATA OBTAINED FROM THE BUOYS TO OUR NORTH AS WELL AS
REPORTS FROM THE U.S. COAST GUARD AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS...
CONFIRMED THAT BREAKING WAVES AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUED
ALONG THE NORTH FACING COASTLINES PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS....BUT THE SWELL ACTION HAVE NOW
SUBSIDED BELOW THE 10 FOOT CRITERIA. THEREFORE...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM AST TODAY. LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS WELL AS
OCCASIONAL BREAKING WAVES NEAR 10 FEET. RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AT LOCAL BEACHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTLINES
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Gustywind]

Abajan continue to keep us informed be safe and dry. Martinica is always under an yellow alert. Here is the latest weather forecast. http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

WEATHER AWARENESS BULLETIN in MARTINIQUE Monitoring Bulletin No. 13 - 3 to 17 pm 21/09/10 authorities (local time = UTC - 4h) COLOR: YELLOW DANGER: Heavy rainstorms
Situation present a "rebound Intertropical Convergence Zone "button yesterday Martinique. This mass of moist air encourages the emergence of foci Forecast stormy sky remains very busy that night and some passages rain-storm is still expected figures on the last 24 hours we found Macouba 116mm of water, 80 to 100mm the basin of the Crack, 40 and 70 mm elsewhere. It could fall another 20 to 30 mm last night.
Comments / Implications Beware of possible reactions of rivers
Summary Risk: Moderate
Impact: low (low, moderate, strong , certain) (low, moderate, substantial, major) Validity duration of the episode: 12 Next entry: Wednesday, September 22 at 6:00

[abajan]

Be careful down there, abajan!

Abajan continue to keep us informed be safe and dry ...

I will, msbee and Gusty!
It’s not raining here now but apparently it ain’t over:



Synopsis: A developing low pressure area is affecting the island.

Weather: Tonight: Cloudy to overcast with pockets of moderate to heavy showers; periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Tomorrow: Generally cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Wind: SSE- E at 15-35 Km/h with higher gusts near showers.

Sea: Moderate in open water, swells 2.0-2.5m. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.

Source: http://www.cdera.org/weather/barbados/index.php

[Gustywind]

Be careful down there, abajan!

Abajan continue to keep us informed be safe and dry ...

I will, msbee and Gusty!
It’s not raining here now but apparently it ain’t over:



Synopsis: A developing low pressure area is affecting the island.

Weather: Tonight: Cloudy to overcast with pockets of moderate to heavy showers; periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Tomorrow: Generally cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Wind: SSE- E at 15-35 Km/h with higher gusts near showers.

Sea: Moderate in open water, swells 2.0-2.5m. Small craft operators and sea bathers should exercise caution.

Source: http://www.cdera.org/weather/barbados/index.php

thanks glad to hear you be aware as usual!

[tropicana]

NOTE the unusually low high temps in Barbados due to persistent cloud cover and rain today

Regional Highs and Rainfall for
Tue Sep 21 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.3C 88F 7.0mm (late this afternoon)
Crown Point, Tobago 28.3C 83F 0.9mm

Point Salines, Grenada 27.0C 81F 4.0mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.5C 85F 33.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 27.0C 81F 59.6mm
Long Bay, SE Barbados 26.4C 79F 30.5mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 25.3C 77F 41.9mm
Lodge Hill, SW Barbados 24.7C 77F 54.1mm

Le Lamentin, Martinique 28.3C 83F 36.1mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.6C 89F 0.8mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.4C 88F 3.7mm
VC Bird, Antigua 30.6C 87F 3.3mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F 17.0 mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.4C 90F 1.1mm
Kingston, Jamaica 32.6C 91F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 34.2C 94F 0.1mm
Havana, Cuba 32.4C 90F

Nassau, Bahamas 31.7C 89F
Hamilton, Bermuda 26.0C 79F (dewpoints falling to 15C later today)

Hato Airport, Curacao 31.2C 88F 8.0mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 31.3C 88F 4.7mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 31.3C 88F 3.2mm

-justin-

[abajan]

It looks like Barbados is well on track to recording its highest rainfall total for a calendar year. Up to this point, Grantley Adams Airport has recorded 1477.5 mm (58.17 inches) of rain which is already significantly more than what they would normally get in an entire year. What makes this especially noteworthy is the fact that from late last year well into this year, Barbados recorded its worst drought ever! The thing is, we’re not even into the real meat of the rainy season as yet which is usually from about mid October to mid November. Our wettest year was 1966 (the same year we became an independent nation, BTW) when the airport got 1828.55 mm (71.99 inches) of rain. That means the airport only needs 351.05 mm (13.82 inches) more rain for the remainder of 2010 to tie the record. Should be a piece o’ cake!

Incidentally, from what I can tell, rainfall records at Grantley Adams (formerly Seawell) only go back to 1942. It is also important to note that the airport is located in one of the driest areas of the island. (It is not at all unusual to hear of torrential rainfall occurring in central and northwestern parts of the island when the airport is simultaneously being drenched in brilliant sunshine with nary a raindrop in sight.)

More interesting info...

[cycloneye]

San Juan, Puerto Rico is also going for a record of rainfall in 2010.

.CLIMATE...2010 CONTINUES ON TRACK TO BE THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.
THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING...A TOTAL OF 64.82 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY BEEN MEASURED AT THE SJU LMM INT`L ARPT. THIS IS ALMOST 10
INCHES OF RAIN MORE THAN THE SECOND WETTEST YEAR TO DATE OF 1958.
WITH STILL JUST OVER THREE MONTHS LEFT IN THE CALENDAR YEAR 2010
ALREADY RANKS AS THE TWELFTH WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST WED SEP 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
HENCE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS MORNING. HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION. SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST TONIGHT.

A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DICTATE THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

THEREFORE...EXPECT TYPICAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER ACTIVITY TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE INTERIORS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
FRIDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA LATE SATURDAY INCREASING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES TODAY...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN AT 6 MILES OR ABOVE. VCSH
COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJBQ. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS CONTINUED REPORT WAVE HEIGHTS OF ABOVE 7 FEET.
ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN SWELL GENERATED BY IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY GENERATING DANGEROUS
CHOPPY CONDITIONS.

[abajan]

We didn’t get any rain to speak of last night and the flood warning was discontinued at 6.00 a.m. (local time).

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 221848
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE MAINTAINING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN A
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAZY...BREEZY AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC TPW PRODUCT SHOWED DRIER AND STABLE AIR
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. HAZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH END OF WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MODELS AND PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PW VALUES
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A BETTER CHANGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS A TUTT LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

LOOKING AHEAD...MODELS SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS REACHING
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE BY THEN.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER FLIGHT VSBY WILL REMAIN
AT 6 MILES OR GREATER. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT 15 KTS OR GREATER WITH OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS AND AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERN SWELL GENERATED BY IGOR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS AND ROUGH SEAS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL SATURDAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECTED WINDS
UP TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 9 FEET.

[msbee]

It's really been very windy here all day.
The airport Met Office reports winds out of the east at 16 MPH but we have had higher gusts.
It's been quite hazy too. Monday was very clear and we could see St. Kitts which is over 60 miles away. The past two days we couldn't even see Anguilla which is only about 11 miles away.

Have a good night, everyone!

[cycloneye]

Barbara,same here as very breeze conditions have been felt. Also hazy skies. Good night to you.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall for
Wed Sep 22 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.5C 93F trace
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.9C 87F 6.1mm
Couva, SW Trinidad 32.3C 90F 10.9mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.2C 88F

Point Salines, Grenada 30.4C 86F
Arnos Vale Airport, St Vincent 31.4C 88F 7.2mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.3C 88F 0.2mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 30.5C 87F 7.7mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 31.3C 88F 2.2mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.8C 89F 5.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.1C 90F

Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.1C 88F trace
VC Bird Airport, Antigua 30.7C 87F 1.5mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F 1.5mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 32.2C 90F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.4C 88F 47.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.9C 93F 29.0mm
Havana, Cuba 32.5C 91F 1.0mm

Nassau, Bahamas 31.2C 88F
Key West, Florida 31.7C 89F
Hamilton, Bermuda 26.4C 80F

Hato Airport, Curacao 30.1C 86F 13.9mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 30.1C 86F 2.8mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 28.6C 84F 9.0mm
Cayenne, French Guiana 32.5C 91F 0.6mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
934 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010

.UPDATE...PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAZY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. LIMITED SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
SO FAR THIS EVENING. A GENERALLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AND UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE TO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD PCPN
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SAHARAN LAYER
MOVES WEST INTO HISPANIOLA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ALTHOUGH
NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. G20-25KT EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS AT JMZ THU
AFTERNOON WITH VCTS.

&&

.MARINE...OBS FROM BUOYS 41043 AND 41053 INDICATE NORTHERLY SWELLS
OF 5-7 FEET AT 14-15 SECS OCCURRING AT THOSE TWO STATIONS. THIS
15-SEC SWELL IS NOT BEEN INITIALIZED WELL BY MARINE MODELS. CALLS TO
U.S. COAST GUARD ALSO INDICATE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS OUT THERE.
SINCE MODELS SUGGEST SWELLS INCREASING A BIT MORE TONIGHT AND
CURRENT OBS HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH SURF ADVZY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230912
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST THU SEP 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW
AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. SHOWER WERE ALSO AFFECTING THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX GENERATING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH. WINDS WERE AT AROUND
10 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY A HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AND UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER FLIGHT VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN AT 6 MILES OR GREATER. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 15 KTS OR GREATER WITH OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND
GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOY 41043 CONTINUE TO REPORT ABOVE 8 FEET SWELLS AT
12 SECONDS. AT THIS MOMENT THE BUOY 41053 IS REPORTING 8.2 FEET AT
14 SECONDS. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GENERATED WAVES WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH THE
SWELLS TO PRODUCE DANGERS CONFUSES SEAS.

[Gustywind]