ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Is this the model thread or the history and conversation thread?

[Florida1118]

Is this the model thread or the history and conversation thread?

Its weird we all get side tracked with things other than models because of the models...it happens with every model thread. Its not a huge deal.

[cycloneye]

Is this the model thread or the history and conversation thread?

Dean is right. Again,we have a main discussion thread for 95L. This thread is to post the runs of the models.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109483&p=2072767#p2072767

[Vortex]

NAM 00z H54 barely clips nicaragua...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[caneseddy]

Just checking in and boy did the Gfs come out with another interesting run with a David/Frederic scenario for South Florida

Remember that the gfs has had 2 storms forming in the Caribbean forvthe past couple of runs; will be interesting to see the 0z run to see if it continues having a brother/sister in the caribbean and see what it had in store

Does the information from the PREDICT flight go into this run

[btangy]

Does the information from the PREDICT flight go into this run

From what I understand, the GFS does not ingest PREDICT's data. However, the ECMWF does. I'm not sure about the other models. Each modeling center has different criteria for rejecting or accepting data. Research data is not considered operational quality by NCEP.

Don't think about this too hard... it truly does not make any logical sense.

[ROCK]

I have been reading up on this PREDICT stuff....good info and wish we had it before now. Models do have this data in them now...for nothing more than current conditions.

The main player in this game is the cut off low and how strong this trof really is......

EDIT: to add the EURO...have my EURO blinders on...

[Wx_Warrior]

Love live the EURO.

Per JB: Hey FLA no hurricanes yet. BIG PROBLEM next 2-3 weeks..Tough pattern!

[BigB0882]

Love live the EURO.

Per JB: Hey FLA no hurricanes yet. BIG PROBLEM next 2-3 weeks..Tough pattern!

Can you explain? Where does he feel is biggest threat or is he saying there will be no formations of storms at all?

[Wx_Warrior]

Biggest threat is Florida due to the pattern for the next few weeks.

Saying florida has yet to have a hurricane, but due to upper air pattern, they could have a big problem for the next few weeks.

NAM do anything yet?

[BigB0882]

Biggest threat is Florida due to the pattern for the next few weeks.

Saying florida has yet to have a hurricane, but due to upper air pattern, they could have a big problem for the next few weeks.

NAM do anything yet?

Thanks. I read it wrong, I thought he meant there are no hurricanes to worry about yet and that would be true for the next few weeks because of the pattern. I see what he means now, thanks.

[Vortex]

00z NAM loop...I didn't initially post it because it developed a low right off the bat near nicaragua so it was abit skewed...Sorta got back on track....Regardless, quite interesting when you run the loop and look at how much real estate the entire envelope and circulation cover....





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

00z GFS rolls in 30...should be quite interesting given the 18z ensemble...However, if it continues the trend over sfl then it's something to REALLY take note of...

[Ivanhater]

Updated GFS Ensemble models

[Florida1118]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Updated GFS Ensemble models
So a split between LA and FL. Wonderful

[Vortex]

Updated GFS Ensemble models

It's also interesting how every single member is north of the operation from this point to nicaragua...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not many burying themselves in CA anymore...

[srainhoutx]

Split camp folks. It's been that way for a while. Time to start watching carefully IMO.

[BigB0882]

Interesting how the GFS is by far the furthest south out of every single ensemble run. It spends much more time over land and quite a bit inland compared to all the other models except for the few who take in inland near the Yucatan to never be seen again. I have to think it will pull more in line tonight with the ensemble members.

Edit: I see Vortex said this before I did.

[Vortex]

My "best guess" is the 00z crosses ne nicaragua, then into the gulf of honduras..slows begins to turn N/NE then over or just west of western Cuba with a landfall between Tamps and Pensacola...If its still over SFL then ill take the last few runs more serious...