ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Steve H.]

But remember, sitting for a bit over Nicaragua/Honduras doesn't really disrupt these systems too badly as is a case in point with Michelle from a few years ago. She developed a big LCC while inland, then headed for Cuba.

[ROCK]

84hr NAM

there is your low

[ROCK]

84hr 18z GFS

[Vortex]

FWIW, the 00z,6Z,12Z,18Z runs of the GFS all passed over(3 of 4) and 1 just east of SE FL...Biggest difference was timing as the 18Z was much quicker...

[Vortex]

There would be no question if this cut off low wasn't in the picture this would be a Texas to FL panhandle storm....maybe even a BOC to mexico runner....

[Vortex]

Roll time.....

[BigB0882]

Does the NAM have the cut off low being much more potent than the GFS at the same time (84hr)? Or am I reading that incorrectly. NAM looks also a bit further south with the cut off low.

[ROCK]

There would be no question if this cut off low wasn't in the picture this would be a Texas to FL panhandle storm....maybe even a BOC to mexico runner....

I dont know Vortex the Ensembles are sniffing something and it aint glue...

NO over to FL Panhandle might not be a bad bet either....just saying....

[lonelymike]

HPC front shows a front draped over north central florida on day 7. This storm ain't going to LA, MS, AL or Fla panhandle. West fla gulf coast or south is best bet.

[Vortex]

NAM is very good with short term synoptics....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I should be going to sleep now so I am not a zombie at work tomorrow, but like many of you, I am staying up for the model runs. Not that it really matters....if I see them in another fifteen minutes or tomorrow morning's next runs. But alas, we are all addicted to these incredible storms and their formation and paths. Throw in the fact that they could actually affect us personally, and it adds a bit of excitement and trepidation to the equation.

*yawn so when do we get to see the new spaghetti chart?

[ROCK]

HPC front shows a front draped over north central florida on day 7. This storm ain't going to LA, MS, AL or Fla panhandle. West fla gulf coast or south is best bet.

bro the HPC has that front draped over half of the northern hemisphere...seriously at day 7?

[Ivanhater]

HPC front shows a front draped over north central florida on day 7. This storm ain't going to LA, MS, AL or Fla panhandle. West fla gulf coast or south is best bet.

If you keep saying it Mike...maybe you will be right

You know better than that

[gatorcane]

Folks the cutoff low looks like it is going to happen. The gfs is very good at forecasting these features. What's happening is the the gfs really develops 95l so a stronger 95l or Matthew will likely be more influenced by the upper sw winds in the atmosphere on the se side of the upper low. Also note both the euro and gfs show a sheared system heading into florida. That is telling me there may be some sw shear to prohibit it from becoming a major. But that upper-level low looks real.

[ROCK]

well it initialized well...

[lonelymike]

Cmon guys have a little faith in the HPC pro mets and the mighty Euro. One crap run from the Global Fantasy System Model and ya all are losing faith.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if we have to get a system, let it be sheared to keep it in check!

[Vortex]

since most of us are in the model thread check out the 315z, organization is certainly impoving with the inflow being reestablished to the south..back on topic...

[Vortex]

well it initialized well...

can't do much better than that...

[ROCK]

Folks the cutoff low looks like it is going to happen. The gfs is very good at forecasting these features. What's happening is the the gfs really develops 95l so a stronger 95l or Matthew will likely be more influenced by the upper sw winds in the atmosphere on the se side of the upper low. Also note both the euro and gfs show a sheared system heading into florida. That is telling me there may be some sw shear to prohibit it from becoming a major. But that upper-level low looks real.

well you cant go against guidance right now about it but there are many different scenarios of placement and eventually it moving out...