ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

With each new frame, you can see how this is organizing. 3:15z frame.

[psyclone]

1921 was the last biggie for tampa bay. the forcefield kicks butt. treasure island gal, please reconsider staying on TI for a cat 3. i'm afraid there wouldn't be much left of that sandbar or anyone who would stay. all pinellas barrier islands are evac zones for a category one for a reason... they will all be inundated by surge topped with destructive waves... a total wipeout.

[Florida1118]

1921 was the last biggie for tampa bay. the forcefield kicks butt. treasure island gal, please reconsider staying on TI for a cat 3. i'm afraid there wouldn't be much left of that sandbar or anyone who would stay. all pinellas barrier islands are evac zones for a category one for a reason... they will all be inundated by surge topped with destructive waves... a total wipeout.

I just posted a video for the Tampa area from the tampa council...Set in October with a fake storm hurricane "Phoenix". I think it would be a good time for us in the area to watch it.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109505&p=2072839#p2072839

[MHurricanes]

Watching this one intently. Maybe this will be the premonition storm. Mentally preparing now for actions we may need to take if it looks like it could be a biggie. A 3 we would stay. More than that, and we will head inland off the beach. Running through the plan in my head. Just ran out of bottled water, so will need to pick more up Friday, along with ensuring we have plenty of nonperishable food and a freezer full of ice. Batteries stocked up already. Got to plan on vehicle storage and the boat issue that could be a little nightmare since our dock is being repaired right now. ugh. I know it is early, but if this looks to be a real threat, it will be a madhouse here at the beach this weekend. I would rather get a jump on things...i.e. filling the gas tank. I want to stock up before the gouging starts.

I'm sure we'll have a better indication of the storm's path (assuming it forms) by early next week. The models will begin to hone in on the variables influencing its track. As others have pointed out, if its path remains over water, it could strengthen in a hurry.

How many blocks do you live from the coast? I'm not sure you would want to brave a Cat 3 storm. Here in Altamonte Springs, we were buffeted by 85 mph winds when Charley tore threw Orlando. It was nighmarish experience. Trees and telephone lines down everywhere. No power in my home for three days. Others lost power for weeks.

[ROCK]

Luis, look how spread out...this is going to be huge.....drawing from the EPAC and some of the hottest ssts in the basin....really bad for CA with the mudslides and flooding...

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Luis, look how spread out...this is going to be huge.....drawing from the EPAC and some of the hottest ssts in the basin....really bad for CA with the mudslides and flooding...

Definitly,it will be a big system. The main unknown is how much interaction with CA this system will have. That will have huge implications in terms of the intensity that it may get.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The building I am in was the old EOC emergency building in the event of a storm. It was built by the army corps of engineers to show people how they had to build on a barrier island. it is the only building on the Pinellas beaches that is actually built right down to the bedrock and is supposed to withstand a Cat 5. It may be surrounded by water, but should stand. It is 100% reinforced concrete with CAT 5 hurricane windows and sliding doors for the patio. Most units also have roll down shutters. The building is boomerang shaped so it supposedly never gets more than cat 3 winds at any point on it at any time. We are on the 9th floor, so surge and waves are not an issue. The reason we would stay is simply to help all those who won't leave. All the old folks around us refue to evacuate and will likely need help in the aftermath. I have medical training and we are well stocked to live on our own for months. (when I restock my water. .
I went for 28 days with no electricity and few windows (mosquitos!) in Carolina after Fran in 1996. I know what we could be in for. Actually, being on the beach seems like it would be a bit more serene. In carolina, we had to hear all the breaking and falling trees and debris hitting the house. Here, we are so high, that we would hear wind, but not all the other noises like we heard before. Of course, that was just a Cat 1 we went through then.
The worst thing I dread is losing the AC. The building starts to bake. Also, no elevator is tough.

And we are right on the water. The intercoastal actually. Right on Paradise Island.

[stormhunter7]

Anyone know what the NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecasts is running off of? Its seems to have done well so far from what i have glanced at it... and looks to have 95L setup pretty good?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_ma ... d#contents

[blp]

Continued organization at the 0345.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[MGC]

You might want to reconsider staying for a big cat-3+ hurricane on the beach on Treasure Island. The entire beach front was nearly completely destroyed by Katrina along the Miss Coast. You had to be on the 5th floor of a couple of hotels that were located right on the beach to avoid the water....the higher you go the stronger the winds so those shutter had better keep the 150mph gusts out. I'd leave if I were you.

95L looks slightly better organized this evening and I agree that the CC looks to be near 13N 73W. Convection needs to be a bit more concentrated for an upgrade though......MGC

[HURAKAN]

Looks like 70-80% at 2 am

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

we'll certainly be assessing the situation. our problem is that being right on the beach, evacuation is going to be tough if it is called. they call an evac at 36 hours. but they say it will take over 58 hours to evac Pinellas County for a cat 3. being stuck on an elevated highway, or worse, in the middle of crossing the bay, seems even worse than staying put.

[cycloneye]

Looks like 70-80% at 2 am

Agreed. Is organizing,even if convection is not plenty.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

ugh, gfs not looking pretty for miami and the entire west coast of florida before a big bend hit.

[blp]

Anybody know when the eclipse is over. It always happens just when you have a developing system. Thanks

[FLpanhandle91]

Watching closely here in the panhandle of Florida. I ran the generator today and got a concealed weapons license. I'm not willing to deal with another Ivan. That was a living nightmare. It seems to be a taking on a more cyclonic shape with each frame. I'm torn. I LOVE watching storms balloon into monsters. Not much is more beautiful. However, I feel my stomach turn when I think about staring at a major hurricane just offshore.. It seems this area is a highway for storms... Speaking of that (trying to further my tropical knowledge) why do the coasts of Texas and the Florida panhandle/Alabama seem to get more storms than other gulf locations?

edit: huge blow up of convection right over the LLC in the passed hour....

[cycloneye]

Anybody know when the eclipse is over. It always happens just when you have a developing system. Thanks

It lasts for a couple of hours, from 4:15z to 6:15z. That is what I know. If there is something different,someone chim in.

[SouthFLTropics]

I would love to stay up for the Euro run but then I won't be worth anything tomorrow. And I feel tomorrow is going to be a VERY interesting day for us Storm2K folks. Latest IR sat images look like this bad boy is winding up nicely. Like I said earlier, when it clears SA...Watch out. Have a good night all...

SFT

[Wthrman13]

Anyone care to tackle this?



Regardless of heat content, this is at May levels, way below climo and from what I gather, is an impeding factor for this.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 4/abstract

Excerpt- "it would appear difficult for cyclones or anticyclones of any reasonable size to develop significantly in low latitudes, with the exception of cyclones in a vertically unstable atmosphere."

I know this was a ways back, and I didn't read through all the intervening pages, but I might be able to comment just a bit on this.

Please understand, I've only just skimmed the paper. However, I am familiar with the ideas presented. First note that the paper was published in 1950, back when our understanding of synoptic-scale weather systems was still limited. Sumner was arguing based on the energy available in the thermodynamic instability of the atmosphere alone, without really considering the additional energy source of the underlying surface (in the case of tropical cyclones, the warm ocean). Our understanding of synoptic-scale systems (both extra-tropical and tropical) has progressed in leaps and bounds since then. Specifically, in the case of tropical cyclones, it is now understood that tropical cyclones indeed derive most of their energy from the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the underlying ocean surface. Vertical thermodynamic atmospheric instability does play a role, but it is this air-sea interaction that really fuels the storm. Consider the following, somewhat-layman-readable article by Kerry Emanuel:

ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS ... y_2006.pdf

The basic idea is that a hurricane acts is a heat engine which makes use of the thermodynamic disequilibrium between the atmosphere and ocean to drive its "motor", which is the kinetic energy of the winds. The increased low-level winds increase the flux of heat and moisture from the ocean surface by agitating the surface (waves and spray), which increases the kinetic energy of the winds again, and so on in a positive feedback cycle. Eventually, in an ideal setting, a steady state is reached in which the dissipation of kinetic energy by turbulence and surface friction balances the amount of power generated by the thermodynamic energy flux, which leads to Emanuel's famous Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) index (http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html).

Obviously, the real-world scenario is more complicated, but the above mechanism captures the essence. In the real world, you have vertical wind shear which disrupts the heat engine cycle by weakening the "ascent leg" of the Carnot cycle, and by allowing dry mid-tropospheric air into the inner core, which dilutes the warm core by evaporation and mixing. Also, the vertical thermodynamic instability, discussed in the Sumner paper linked above, can help by "priming the pump", but it is not actually necessary to sustain a tropical cyclone once it gets going: in effect, the flux of heat and moisture from the ocean surface creates the needed vertical instability on a large scale -- in this case, simply parcel theory-derived calculations of instability (i.e. CAPE) don't really apply.

That's my quick take on the question. Let me know if anything is unclear or if there are any questions. I must also point out again that I'm really not as much a TC expert as I am a midlatitude severe storm guy, and my knowledge of the most recent research developments in tropical cyclones is somewhat limited (btangy, where are you ).