ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ronjon]

OMG Tampa

[Vortex]

I wouldn't want to be NHC trying to put together this track or intensity forecast beyond 72 hrs...The discussion should be interesting...

[Hurricaneman]

is it possible that both lows are 95l because the gfs has no clue what to do with it and it could be in the BOC or near Cuba

[Brent]

and after Tampa...

[KWT]

That storm isn't 95L that the GFS develops, you can trace most of the energy from 95L into Mexico in the end...

However that being said it'll be a tough one for the NHC to call if that were the case because no doubt some of the energy is from 95L gets into the system...

Either way the same large gyre develops 2 systems, its just whether the NHC will want to keep it the same name or different.

[ROCK]

Tampa would be toast if that verified...but again...I think the GFS is seeing the upper pattern better but is having issues with 95L right now...

[Vortex]

bottom line is the GFS run after run after run has indicated very low pressures over fl....id be surprised if over the next 2 weeks FL wasn't impacted by a significant storm

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

not sure what to make of all that. it looks like florida is in for something late next week, whethr it be 95L (matthew) or a new system.

what wave entering the area could spark that new system? or is it a complete phantom start up?

Are any other models calling on a new system developing too?

[plasticup]

I wouldn't want to be NHC trying to put together this track or intensity forecast beyond 72 hrs...The discussion should be interesting...

"Towards the end of the forecast period, Matthew may have dissipated over the mountains of El Salvador or may be hopped up on GOM steroids, threatening the entire southeastern United States"

I'd like to see Franklin write it; he would be pithy enough to do the situation justice.

[Vortex]

12Z of Nogaps shows 2 systems at H120


2 for the price of 1?



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

This 2nd storm appears to originate of the coast of SA...reminds me of Alpha the same time wilma was going on...

[SouthFloridawx]

If you track the 850mb Vorticity, you can see if move inland and a new area of low pressure forms south of Cuba, near Jamaica.

48 Hrs


60 Hrs


72 Hrs


90 Hrs New Vort Area By Jamaica


120 Hrs


147 Hrs


180 Hrs

[Blown Away]

That storm isn't 95L that the GFS develops, you can trace most of the energy from 95L into Mexico in the end...

However that being said it'll be a tough one for the NHC to call if that were the case because no doubt some of the energy is from 95L gets into the system...

Either way the same large gyre develops 2 systems, its just whether the NHC will want to keep it the same name or different.

Ok, so you are saying 95L/Future Matt is going to bury itself into Mexico and a Nicole may develop to Matt's east?

[Ivanhater]

I find it very interesting the cut-off low is not in the picture this run and the trough is shallow with ridging to the east.

What a change in the upper air pattern. Gonna be a tough forecast for the NHC!

[Vortex]

it sure looks that way....lets see how the rest of the guidance shapes up..

[Vortex]

H180 Nogaps hit on western cuba...look out panhandle to key west....



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

Trough has lifted out

[Saints]

This system is NOT even a TD, yet most people on here think a doomsday event, catastrophic Hurricane is going to Florida!

Good grief people, take a deep breath.

What are so many catastrophic predictions being based on? Models?

Everyone knows models are dynamic, meaning change. It is WAAAAAY too far out to predict so much OMG, and it's over for X scenarios.

While it's interesting to read predictions of where the system will end up and the strength, there is no reason to promote such dire predictions, over and over again, in multiple posts, by the same posters again and again, but with different words. It's as if you are looking for sympathy, or congratulatory accolades....”You forecasted a cataclysmic event and you win the prize for doomsayer champion”, type of recognition? Sheesh...

On to another area. Everyone better watch the BOC, as things appear to be popping there and OMG….another super hurricane is heading somewhere! J/K

[Vortex]

Imo, I think the Nogaps looks most reasonable....

[Vortex]

Maybe the 12Z euro will clear things up