ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[hurricanefloyd5]

is this storm moving wnw or did the center move north of the forecast track a bit


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

In Honduras,preparations are starting to be made.Here is a report from that country posted at http://stormcarib.com/

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... uras.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

It continues to look very impressive and it is likely to see a period of accelerated intensification.
Also Im not sure what all the talk about the Euro being broad for the 12z run... looks fairly straight forward. it opens a little as it interacts with land but by no means does it develop two separate systems.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[fci]

They have a tendency to lag a litle behind and keep an invest listed while they post a TD. 95L and TD15 are the same (referring to Weather Underground)

[tolakram]

Visible looks good, but IR looks a lot like every evening so far.

Saved Image:

[Weatherfreak000]

I think it may be possible Nicaragua may be fortunate enough to be spared of direct landfall...not so sure because man it is going to be a nailbiter for them.


Pro Mets aren't even attempting to make a prediction on this one I noticed

[alienstorm]

This thing is wrapping pretty quicklhy according to visibile satelli pictures and eemso hve relocated a little north of the previous spot, or could be me.....

[Aric Dunn]

I think it may be possible Nicaragua may be fortunate enough to be spared of direct landfall...not so sure because man it is going to be a nailbiter for them.


Pro Mets aren't even attempting to make a prediction on this one I noticed

There really is not much to say..... the next 2 to 3 days is straight forward. wnw motion passing near the NE coast of Honduras then should slow down as the ridge begins to slide east and and a weakness develops from the trough digging in around day 5. Small variations in track will depend almost solely on intensity and wobbles a little more to the north as the center becomes more established in the short term especially if there are any large convective burst on the N side. After that the only real question is how far south does the trough dig and from the way the 2 most reliable global models are suggesting is that trough is going to be rather amplified which would pick the system up.

[Steve H.]

I still don't see a real impressive circulation, at least at the surface. At mid levels definately. Still looks shallow though. Needs to slow down and consolidate. Yeah the solution from the Euro looks a bit sheared, but I'm thinking a stronger system will be the solution in the end.

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

This thing is wrapping pretty quicklhy according to visibile satelli pictures and eemso hve relocated a little north of the previous spot, or could be me.....

It looks to be around 14.0N- 76.5W but that is my take only,nothing official.

[chrisjslucia]

TD 15 in its various guises has been with us a long time it seems and has been written off countless times only to continue on its way, dumping rain throughout its path - sometimes it does not need to be a cyclone to create damage and flooding and the various results of that. But all along, despite various model predictions, it has more or less remained on the original track set out some time ago by CIMSS when they first identified it - thousands of miles almost due west. Hats off to the Storm 2K members who have suspected all along it could become something significant. If we're all proved wrong in the next week and it goes poof, then great, but I think you guys (meaning both genders of course) are better than you take credit for!!

[sargeabernathy]

Was Invest 95 upgraded to TD 15 or not? Or is there two separate storms/areas? Just wondering because Wunderground is showing two separate storms -- close but not at the same location. Maybe they just haven't updated their page yet (?)

WUnderground does that all the time when transitioning from one name to the other. Such as when an Invest becomes a TD, or a TD becomes a TS. It will briefly showcase two storms occupying the same space. In this case, Invest 95 and TD 15. Give it an hour or two and it will be fixed.

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An example as to why I'm an idiot: For the last few days I was wondering why you all were thinking that this storm was going to hit California. I just realized that CA means Central America.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok folks...We are just a little over an hour away from the 5:00PM advisory. Any thoughts on track changes, intensity forecasts, etc. Does anyone think the track will be further inland on the Yucatan or further offshore? What have you all got. It's post time and the betting window is open...

SFT

[tampastorm]

If it does meander for a few days can't that also hinder development , by being in it's own swells?

[Cookie]

TD 15 in its various guises has been with us a long time it seems and has been written off countless times only to continue on its way, dumping rain throughout its path - sometimes it does not need to be a cyclone to create damage and flooding and the various results of that. But all along, despite various model predictions, it has more or less remained on the original track set out some time ago by CIMSS when they first identified it - thousands of miles almost due west. Hats off to the Storm 2K members who have suspected all along it could become something significant. If we're all proved wrong in the next week and it goes poof, then great, but I think you guys (meaning both genders of course) are better than you take credit for!!

Well said

[HURAKAN]

If it does meander for a few days can't that also hinder development , by being in it's own swells?

The WCAR is so warm, that upwelling would be difficult

[sfwx]

From Florida Division of Emergency Management:

At 2pm EDT Thursday, Tropical Depression Fifteen formed in the south-central Caribbean Sea. It is currently around 270 miles south of Jamaica and near 475 miles west of the eastern coast of Nicaragua, which is about 850 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
TD #15 is currently moving to the west at 15mph. This general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of the storm is expected to be near the Nicaragua/Honduras border late Friday or early Saturday. It is then expected to move along the coast of northeast Honduras on Saturday. This system is then forecast to move through the Gulf of Honduras and then turn towards the north-northeast on Sunday and Monday and move along the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are around 35mph, but environmental conditions could promote strengthening. Tropical Depression 15 is expected to become Tropical Storm Matthew later tonight or Friday. There is around a 60% chance that this system will reach tropical storm intensity by 8pm tonight.
The official forecast keeps the storm at tropical storm strength through Saturday morning. After that, the storm is expected to intensify to hurricane strength.
A complete briefing packet will be sent out after the 5pm advisories are issued.

[SouthFLTropics]

If it does meander for a few days can't that also hinder development , by being in it's own swells?

You're referring to upwelling and many times that can hinder development. I don't think that will be the case this time though since the heat content in the Western Caribbean is basically some of the hottest on the planet right now...

SFT

[cycloneye]

If it does meander for a few days can't that also hinder development , by being in it's own swells?

Impressive heat content in Western Caribbean.