ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[ospreygrad]

If it does meander for a few days can't that also hinder development , by being in it's own swells?

Impressive heat content in Western Caribbean.

I don't think we will see any upwelling with that bath water over the Western and NW Caribbean Sea.

[HURAKAN]

impressive

[otowntiger]

It continues to look very impressive and it is likely to see a period of accelerated intensification.
Also Im not sure what all the talk about the Euro being broad for the 12z run... looks fairly straight forward. it opens a little as it interacts with land but by no means does it develop two separate systems.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

The storm that particular model depicts hitting the west coast of FL is not a very strong one from what I can tell. A weak cat 1 or strong ts.

[Aric Dunn]

After a little analysis it does appear to have either migrated a little farther to the north or reformed around 14 to 14.4 N and from 76.5 to 77 W

[SouthDadeFish]

It will be very interesting to see if convection will consolidate over the center tonight. Already has great banding structure for a depression. I'm somewhat surprised the global models don't strengthen this as much as the statistical models do.

[Vortex]

As we progress into the evening, the circulation should tighten. At the same time very deep convection on the order of -80-85C is likely to develop. Pressures will continue to drop and I would not be surprised if we had a developing hurricane by morning…

[HURAKAN]

Just for information purposes, the northernmost point in Honduras is at 16.0ºN.

[ConvergenceZone]

The storm that particular model depicts hitting he west coach of FL is not a very strong one from what I can tell. A weak cat 1 or strong ts.

otowntiger, as we've told you many times before, the models
are horrible when it comes to predicting strength, which is why they keep changing strength in their runs....

by tonight or tomorrow, they will probably have this bombing in Tampa again.

[HurricaneRobert]

It isn't even over the hottest spots yet.

[HURAKAN]

OHC

[Category 5]

If it shoots NE into that bathtub things could get very interesting.

[Typhoon_Willie]

That is true Category 5. Things could get real interesting indeed.

[Vortex]

When is the next recon due in?

[Blown Away]

My guess is the 5pm 5 day cone goes farther inland into Mexico and TD15 becomes TS Matt.

[cycloneye]

When is the next recon due in?

The next mission will be tommorow morning departing around 8:30z.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 24/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0215
C. 24/0830Z
D. 14.8N 80.3W
E. 24/1130Z TO 1800Z
F. SFC TO 15

However,the NASA Hawk and the Gulfstream jet are flying right now.

[Decomdoug]

Activity on this board is about to really ramp up.

[SouthFLTropics]

My guess is the 5pm 5 day cone goes farther inland into Mexico and TD15 becomes TS Matt.

Glad to see that someone has finally placed their bet for the 5:00PM post time...Anyone else want to get in before the betting window closes...

SFT

[Typhoon_Willie]

We will soon see about whether or not the cone goes further inland or not. It looks like Belize may be in for some nasty weather along with Honduras and Nicauragua.

[otowntiger]

The storm that particular model depicts hitting he west coach of FL is not a very strong one from what I can tell. A weak cat 1 or strong ts.

otowntiger, as we've told you many times before, the models
are horrible when it comes to predicting strength, which is why they keep changing strength in their runs....

by tonight or tomorrow, they will probably have this bombing in Tampa again.

Excuse me but I'm obviously not the only mentioning it. I fully understand and have observed many times over the years how intensity forecasting has had it's share of busts and the NHC by it's own admission does not have a grasp. I'm just pointing it out for discussion. I'm curious as to why so many models on repeated runs don't seem to develop a very strong system. See my previoius post in the models thread. I was responding to someone else already mentioning it.

[tolakram]

Excuse me but I'm obviously not the only mentioning it. I fully understand and have observed many times over the years how intensity forecasting has had it's share of busts and the NHC by it's own admission does not have a grasp. I'm just pointing it out for discussion. I'm curious as to why so many models on repeated runs don't seem to develop a very strong system.

Same reason none of them developed a very strong Karl ... or even go back to Felix years ago. If we knew I suspect someone would fix it. I believe much of it has to do with resolution issues. The deep areas of a strong hurricane can be quite small.