ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

The storm that particular model depicts hitting he west coach of FL is not a very strong one from what I can tell. A weak cat 1 or strong ts.

otowntiger, as we've told you many times before, the models
are horrible when it comes to predicting strength, which is why they keep changing strength in their runs....

by tonight or tomorrow, they will probably have this bombing in Tampa again.

Excuse me but I'm obviously not the only mentioning it. I fully understand and have observed many times over the years how intensity forecasting has had it's share of busts and the NHC by it's own admission does not have a grasp. I'm just pointing it out for discussion. I'm curious as to why so many models on repeated runs don't seem to develop a very strong system.

I think there may be two explanations for it...1.) the unknown interaction with land playing a part on the intensity forecast and 2.) the upper air environment as the trough swings through from the north could impart some SW shear on the system.

In regards to #2 I believe that Wilma was forecast to weaken as well while she headed towards Florida but instead was enhanced by the trough and strengthened. We still have much to learn when it comes to intensity.

SFT

[sunnyday]

This is not a forecast or anything like one, but I have some serious questions. I am seeing huge concern on this board about a storm that is only a td. If the models have it hitting Fl this far out, doesn't that usually change by the time it gets closer? Please explain to me what I am missing that is making many of you seem so concerned. I will definitely be concerned if it turns into a hurricane on a collision course with my neighborhood, and I certainly don't want anyone in harm's way. However, what is so indicative of a major problem?
Thanks for taking the time to answer my questions.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is not a forecast or anything like one, but I have some serious questions. I am seeing huge concern on this board about a storm that is only a td. If the models have it hitting Fl this far out, doesn't that usually change by the time it gets closer? Please explain to me what I am missing that is making many of you seem so concerned. I will definitely be concerned if it turns into a hurricane on a collision course with my neighborhood, and I certainly don't want anyone in harm's way. However, what is so indicative of a major problem?
Thanks for taking the time to answer my questions.

First of all I think that there is a general interest and anticipation while waiting for each and every model run to come out. I wouldn't call it concern yet at this point as it is more interest in the hows, whys, whats, and whens. Secondly, the models have been pretty spot on this year so when multiple models (even ones greater than 5 days out) are pointing in the general direction of the CONUS you are going to see more interest (concern) on the board.

I stated last night that I think the setup that is occuring with TD15 is one of the more facinating scenarios that I have seen in recent memory.

It's kinda like watching football. You don't know who is going to win or lose in the end but you still enjoy watching the game.

SFT

[invest man]

At 5 no Matthew and track will be an update of the last,JMO. IM

[kiblet]

I just checked the NHC website. It definitely says "Tropical Storm Matthew."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.sh ... l#contents

Just sayin'.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah its matthew..

[SouthFLTropics]

I just checked the NHC website. It definitely says "Tropical Storm Matthew."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.sh ... l#contents

Just sayin'.

Yep, just checked myself and it says Matthew...I looked at the forecast points and it appears like an update of the previous track with maybe a slight budge further west at the 4 day position...

SFT

[Typhoon_Willie]

You are right Kiblet it does say Tropical Storm Matthew.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

At 5pm no Matthew, but alluding to high probability it will be named by 11:00pm, or sooner (by 8pm likely). Forecast points shifted slightly more north in short term to account for better consolidating center that seems to have been a little north of 2pm plots thus far. Overall methodology not much changed though, and cone remains nearly identical to earlier.
Tomorrow morning's update will the real interesting one once the synoptic data is entered in, a firm center is defined, and the models get a chance to run on solid info.

Matthew after all! quickly strengthening. wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a hurricane in the morning.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SouthFLTropics]

At 5pm no Matthew, but alluding to high probability it will be named by 11:00pm, or sooner (by 8pm likely). Forecast points shifted slightly more north in short term to account for better consolidating center that seems to have been a little north of 2pm plots thus far. Overall methodology not much changed though, and cone remains nearly identical to earlier.
Tomorrow morning's update will the real interesting one once the synoptic data is entered in, a firm center is defined, and the models get a chance to run on solid info.

You lose...Pay up!!! LOL

SFT

[invest man]

My bad, we now have matthew, but track does still seem to be the same with same intensity. IM

[Decomdoug]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.sh ... l#contents

Still labeled as "2 PM"

Uppss.. Just changed to 5PM

[HURAKAN]

Matthew enters the scene

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 232041
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well hello Matthew! Boy that was a pretty quick ramp up to storm status.

[cycloneye]

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

and he's not even ove rthe warmest waters yet! think how fast he will ramp up over those hottest temps!

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the got a good portion of the advisory out already but the disco is taking some time...I feel for the FOD who has to write the disco for this...They could probably write a book about the scenarios that could take place...

SFT

[Typhoon_Willie]

I almost hate to think what kind of ramp up that would be.