ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[fci]

From Florida Division of Emergency Management:

At 2pm EDT Thursday, Tropical Depression Fifteen formed in the south-central Caribbean Sea. It is currently around 270 miles south of Jamaica and near 475 miles west of the eastern coast of Nicaragua, which is about 850 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
TD #15 is currently moving to the west at 15mph. This general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of the storm is expected to be near the Nicaragua/Honduras border late Friday or early Saturday. It is then expected to move along the coast of northeast Honduras on Saturday. This system is then forecast to move through the Gulf of Honduras and then turn towards the north-northeast on Sunday and Monday and move along the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are around 35mph, but environmental conditions could promote strengthening. Tropical Depression 15 is expected to become Tropical Storm Matthew later tonight or Friday. There is around a 60% chance that this system will reach tropical storm intensity by 8pm tonight.
The official forecast keeps the storm at tropical storm strength through Saturday morning. After that, the storm is expected to intensify to hurricane strength.
A complete briefing packet will be sent out after the 5pm advisories are issued.

This seems to be a very early release from the Florida Division of Emergency Managmet.
I think it quells the thoughts that people in Florida are being alarmists.
There is still a whole lot that can happen to TD15/Matthew, however; people in Florida, and the upper GOM I might add; are going to be paying very close attention to this developing storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

But if you look at the forecast, they aren't ramping the strength of this up very quickly.
Do they know something we don't?

[Typhoon_Willie]

I almost hate to think what kind of ramp up that would be.

[HURAKAN]

This system has the potential to be the storm of 2010

[ConvergenceZone]

This system has the potential to be the storm of 2010

Any reason why the NHC is being so conservative on the strength??
Sometimes they aren't conservative, but they are with Matt

[otowntiger]

But if you look at the forecast, they aren't ramping the strength of this up very quickly.
Do they know something we don't?

But keep in mind, intensity forecasting is something no one has a grasp on yet.

[HURAKAN]

This system has the potential to be the storm of 2010

Any reason why the NHC is being so conservative on the strength??
Sometimes they aren't conservative, but they are with Matt

It's a compromise of the track. If it stays north, it will be a lot stronger. If it goes further south, then it will be a lot weaker.

[ConvergenceZone]

But keep in mind, intensity forecasting is something no one has a grasp on yet.

There's a big differce between the models 10 days out and the intensity forecasts 2 or 3 days out.

[SouthFLTropics]

Lets remember here folks that this could be the Storm of 2010 even if it never makes it to Hurricane strength. There are many people in Central America that are going to impacted in a bad way by this in just a couple of days. When Mitch hit there in 1998 thousands of people lost their homes and loved ones. I remember images on TV of massive mudslides and the reports of the casualties were staggering...This has the potential to drop a boatload of rain in that area and cause the same destruction. I'm taking early bets that the name Matthew will not be used ever again even if it doesn't make it to Hurricane strength.

SFT

[invest man]

The discussion said assuming it goes inland, so they still may not be sure that it will make it as far west as they have on their own forcast track. It would only make since that it might would be stronger if it stays of shore, especially with limited shear forcasted in the area. IM

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm just wondering why they aren't ramping up the intensity BEFORE it gets inland(if it does). I can
understand them not ramping up the intensity forecasts once it gets to the point of possibly going inland, but
for the next 24 hours or so, I don't know why the intensity isn't forecasted to increase quicker.

[Sanibel]

I guess the prudent poster would wait until it becomes more clear on what kind of a turn it will take. It could make a big difference as far as final destination. NAM is keeping it offshore Yucatan - which is the worst possible thing because we could see a Wilma track that doesn't waste time over Cozumel and heads straight to the Gulf. But we could also still see a system that heads over Yucatan and limits strength. My attitude is to be aware of this but wait until the turn becomes better understood.

One thing I don't like is this one has a more "muscular" look to the early bands than other Caribbean systems this year.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I'm just wondering why they aren't ramping up the intensity BEFORE it gets inland(if it does). I can
understand them not ramping up the intensity forecasts once it gets to the point of possibly going inland, but
for the next 24 hours or so, I don't know why the intensity isn't forecasted to increase quicker.

I'm with you there. I think we are witnessing now how quickly this could ramp up. Maybe they feel the interaction with land, or even the proximity, will cut off matthew's inflow and not allow it to ramp up at all.

I suppose that is plausible. however, as warm as those waters are, I wonder which will win out. maybe it is a draw, and the storm simply maintains its strength. hmmmmm I think that is what they call for.

[hurricaneCW]

There's no need to ramp up the intensity especially due to all that land interaction. It's still a storm that's trying to get its act together so it won't ramp up rapidly. What I'm looking for now is to see if there's a huge blow up of very cold cloud tops (-80C) right over the center. If we see that happen tonight, then Matthew could really ramp up quite rapidly.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

this will be a nailbiter for sure. so many different scenarios. -and none of them are that pleasant. someone will suffer no matter how it pans out.

[SunnyThoughts]

[Vortmax1]

Finally there is something of substance for the models to initialize and work from.
This has the potential to impact a lot of lives and since I'm way down the line regarding that impact I have no comments about what might happen in the CONUS at this time.

[Blown Away]

HPC still placing Matt's low in the Yucatan Channel in about 7 days, this position is a little farther north and east than the previous position!

[SoupBone]

If the cold front dips down as far as it's forecasted to do LA would have less to worry about then the states further east. The big question is does it dip that far down?

I did have a question that's related to Matthew. Has Walt Disney World/Universal/Busch Gardens ever been affected by a nasty hurricane? If so how did they fare? I was just wondering with how many times you guys in Florida get hit it would be an easy assumption that it's gotten hit at least once.

[cycloneye]

If the cold front dips down as far as it's forecasted to do LA would have less to worry about then the states further east. The big question is does it dip that far down?

I did have a question that's related to Matthew. Has Walt Disney World/Universal/Busch Gardens ever been affected by a nasty hurricane? If so how did they fare? I was just wondering with how many times you guys in Florida get hit it would be an easy assumption that it's gotten hit at least once.

I remember that Disneyworld was closed when Charley moved thru.