ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1001 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:42 pm

The Caribbean will likely be cranking out storms and the models don't know what to do with it.
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#1002 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:43 pm

no wonder wxman57 and the pro mets havent been seen much :D
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#1003 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:44 pm

288H SFL nearly again gets rocked...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif
Last edited by Vortex on Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1004 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:44 pm

Ivanhater wrote:The Caribbean will likely be cranking out storms and the models don't know what to do with it.


Yepp.. As mentioned it looks to be just the start of the season for this part of the basin..
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Re:

#1005 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:45 pm

Vortex wrote:288H SFL again gets rocked...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif



lol yea but by which storm?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1006 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:47 pm

Well I'm glad things are cleared up now...

Consensus=Cancel
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#1007 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:48 pm

18Z Nogaps...stalls it over gulf of honduras, just east of belize...




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1008 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:49 pm

He he who knows what storm!
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#1009 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:50 pm

Looking at matt this evening...there is almost NOWAY this just dissipates...Not gonna happen....
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1010 Postby ospreygrad » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:51 pm

Aquawind wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:The Caribbean will likely be cranking out storms and the models don't know what to do with it.


Yepp.. As mentioned it looks to be just the start of the season for this part of the basin..
. The MJO is now firmly established in the SW Atlantic basin. October is definitely goping to be active indeed in the Caribbean for sure.
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#1011 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:52 pm

nogaps takes it west across honduras/south belize then back east to the gulf of honduras
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1012 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:52 pm

:double: I'm dizzy, what a crazy run! Here we thought we were starting to see some consensus between GFS/Euro well that just got trashed. It's obvious this a very complex situation with possible multiple storms brewing in the Caribbean over the next two weeks (according to 18z). However, this is the second run in a row that essentially dissipates Matthew after moving across the Yucatan/BOC. I'd expect some changes in the NHC track for Matty come tonight.
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Re:

#1013 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:53 pm

Vortex wrote:Looking at matt this evening...there is almost NOWAY this just dissipates...Not gonna happen....



There is also no way it takes 12 days for Matt to get to Fla.... so I wouldnt be so sure he doesnt just dissipate and a new system forms..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1014 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:54 pm

The gfs looks like it just endured hell in an insane asylum. Absolute bizarre run, there's like 3 lows, one in the BOC, one in the western Caribbean, something off the Yucatan, there's a double barreled low heading just east of Florida, one low heads off the coast, one up the boast.

The run before this was so much easier to figure out, this one is insane. The run to run consistency is dead, there's none at all. So, I think it's best not to go beyond 5 days on any run at this point because the whole scenario is crazy.
Last edited by hurricaneCW on Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1015 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:54 pm

GFS is suffering from some feedback issues...serious feedback issues...
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#1016 Postby btangy » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:54 pm

The global models are showing a very anomalous pattern developing over the central and eastern US. There is tremendous model spread as to how the deep trough that's forecasted to develop evolves. Take a look at the GEFS spread in 576 dm line in the 500 mb height spaghetti chart: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... e_084m.gif. The progression and depth of the trough will determine how quickly Matthew gets pulled northward. The ECMWF ensemble, from what I saw earlier, also shows similar spread in the trough position, depth, and progression. This means there is much higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast for Matthew beyond 2 days, and I'm not entirely sure which way to lean.

It seems the second system that the GFS and ECMWF are developing from whatever remains of Matthew and a monsoon-like gyre that forms in the NW Carribbean may not be purely tropical. It will certainly have tropical characteristics given where it's forming, but given the strong upstream trough, it will likely be baroclinic as well. The models appears out of whack because this is a highly unusual pattern for this time of year. I can't recall a similar situation in late Sept. This may throw a ton of water up the east coast no matter what happens.
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Re:

#1017 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:58 pm

Vortex wrote:288H SFL nearly again gets rocked...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif


south florida should have been destroyed years ago based on the model runs that have us getting hit, year after year after year, one of these times but until then happy hurricane hunting, the generator continues to collect dust
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#1018 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:59 pm

Thanks btangy. It's been pretty dry here in Sw Florida for weeks and today we are getting some widespread rains from the SE. Either way it looks like a wet period for Florida and yes the east coast as well eventually.
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Re: Re:

#1019 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 6:00 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Vortex wrote:288H SFL nearly again gets rocked...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif


south florida should have been destroyed years ago based on the model runs that have us getting hit, year after year after year, one of these times but until then happy hurricane hunting, the generator continues to collect dust



I agree. I do not think we will see much from Matt here in South Florida
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Re:

#1020 Postby artist » Thu Sep 23, 2010 6:00 pm

btangy wrote:The global models are showing a very anomalous pattern developing over the central and eastern US. There is tremendous model spread as to how the deep trough that's forecasted to develop evolves. Take a look at the GEFS spread in 576 dm line in the 500 mb height spaghetti chart: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... e_084m.gif. The progression and depth of the trough will determine how quickly Matthew gets pulled northward. The ECMWF ensemble, from what I saw earlier, also shows similar spread in the trough position, depth, and progression. This means there is much higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast for Matthew beyond 2 days, and I'm not entirely sure which way to lean.

It seems the second system that the GFS and ECMWF are developing from whatever remains of Matthew and a monsoon-like gyre that forms in the NW Carribbean may not be purely tropical. It will certainly have tropical characteristics given where it's forming, but given the strong upstream trough, it will likely be baroclinic as well. The models appears out of whack because this is a highly unusual pattern for this time of year. I can't recall a similar situation in late Sept. This may throw a ton of water up the east coast no matter what happens.

thanks for your input btangy! So we need to trash the models after 2 days for right now. At least we know that much! :lol:
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