WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.0N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 35.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 40.7N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 49.2N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 141.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
231616Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD FIX AS WELL AS AN ITOP VORTEX
MESSAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE VORTEX MESSAGE, ITOP
DROPSONDE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH
HAS ALLOWED TY 13W TO INTENSIFY BY 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE PAST SIX
HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST HAS IMPROVED AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TY
13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BY TAU 24, TY 13W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, TY MALAKAS
SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TY 13W IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND
242100Z.//
![Image](http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/3629/wp13201010092318.gif)
TXPN28 KNES 232114
SIMWIR
A. 13W (MALAKAS)
B. 23/2032Z
C. 23.5N
D. 140.9E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ELONGATED OW EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W
RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.5. ELONGATED EYE REQUIRES 0.5 BE SUBTRACTED AND
NO PLUS EYE ADJUSTMENT IS ALLOWED. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 4.0. FT BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
23/1602Z 22.9N 140.9E AMSU
23/1616Z 22.9N 140.8E AMSRE
...TURK
=
![Image](http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/3414/201009232314mtsat2xir1k.jpg)
836
TCNA21 RJTD 240000
CCAA 24000 47644 MALAKAS(1012) 15241 11409 13334 245// 93613=
Mission over in Malakas. Last VDM:
URPA12 PGUA 232258
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/22:16:50Z
B. 24 deg 05 min N
140 deg 38 min E
C. 700 mb 2850 m
D. 61 kt
E. 340 deg 22 nm
F. 087 deg 67 kt
G. 349 deg 43 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 11 C / 3048 m
J. 15 C / 3046 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. closed
M. C60
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0322W MALAKAS OB 68
MAX FL WIND 90 KT E QUAD 19:12:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 87 KT S QUAD 22:28:30Z
ragged eyewall
;
Note that the surface winds recorded in D of 61kt do not correspond to the typical 90% reduction from 700 mb, in which case the max sustained winds would be around 80kt. The obs from Iwo To, if from the E eye wall, would be close to 60kt converted to 1-min sustained.
Last 6hr of obs at RJAW:
RJAW 240000Z 12050G82KT 1500 R07/0350V0800D +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/25 Q0977 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2887 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232315Z 11055G79KT 1500 R07/0750V1200D +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0980 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2897 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232306Z 11054G83KT 1600 R07/1100U SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 FEW010TCU 25/24 Q0981 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 1TCU010 A2899 TCU 5KM N MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232300Z 12055G95KT 1500 R07/0700V1200U +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0982 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2902 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232249Z 11055G95KT 1500 R07/0800N +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0983 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2903 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232235Z 11055G81KT 1500 R07/0450V1500D +SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 SCT010TCU 25/24 Q0983 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 3TCU010 A2905 TCU OHD MOV N P/FR
RJAW 232226Z 11056G83KT 3100 SHRA BR BKN006 OVC010 25/24 Q0984 RMK 5ST006 8CU010 A2907 P/FR
RJAW 232200Z 11052G78KT 3500 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0987 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2915 P/FR
RJAW 232140Z 11053G77KT 3500 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0988 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2919 P/FR
RJAW 232100Z 11043G66KT 4000 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0990 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2926
RJAW 232040Z 11044G67KT 3200 -SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 25/24 Q0991 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 A2927
RJAW 232016Z 11045G70KT 2500 SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 FEW015TCU 25/24 Q0992 RMK 4ST006 6CU010 8CU015 1TCU015 A2930 TCU 5KM E MOV NW
RJAW 232000Z 11042G57KT 2500 SHRA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC015 FEW015TCU 25/24 Q0993 RMK 3ST006 6CU010 8CU015 1TCU015 A2933 TCU 5KM N MOV NW