ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[KWT]

The high is weakening but probably not quickly enough for this to totally avoid Honduras, I suspect it brushes land before it gets into the GoH and ends up into Belize...after that and the models start to really diverge with some calling for a new system to form whilst others drag Matthew back east or take it far enough west into the BoC to keep going.

[cycloneye]

Thank you Sandy for the graphic. It looks like it all depends on how deep the trough will be.

[HURAKAN]

Brain Norcross of TWC said that there is the possibility that the trough isn't strong enough to pick up Matthew and that would leave the system meandering around. A lot of uncertainties.

[ronjon]

Now upto 40kts, the models don't seem to know how to handle all the energy that is in the gyre, there is a chance that Matthew gets stronger then expected and that would certainly throw another spanner in the works.

I suspect the NHC track will have to be adjusted westwards and we may see another system form as Matthew decays but the energy will likely be from the same source...

Either way the whole lot is going to be dragged up one way or the other...

Yeah KWT, I suspect NHC will punt and show a slow inland NW movement in the 3-5 day track guidance at the next update.

[KWT]

The problem is its complicated by the development of that Monsoon Gyre that then starts to try and develop other systems around it, esp if Matthew does go inland and decays totally...

I wouldn't like to be the NHC and have to make that sort of call!

[HURAKAN]

crazy times beyond 3 days

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks to be a mess for sure!

[wzrgirl1]

I'm a tad nervous. That curve at the end of some of the runs and the fact that we are getting into October next week is my reason for that. I think Sunday or Monday will be a telling time. Either way, looks as if a busy month is ahead. Praying that my trip to Ft. Myers on the 9th is still on. Good luck to all in the path.

[HURAKAN]

NASA investigating Matthew ... no, we can't see the any of the observations

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Talk about model non-consensus.

[Lowpressure]

Complex scenario for sure. Storms in this area tend to be real bad for CA.

[plasticup]

Convection is really blowing up in the last hour; he is looking better by the minute.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Baynews9 says matthew will cont west most likely dissipate after going inland but nicole not even formed yet will form right behind it. And the US will have to deal with tht on later in the week. Will be interesting to see wht happens.

My parents live just outside of Plant City, You would think that Baynews 9 had a crystal ball sometimes, some of the stuff they say unreal.

[Vortex]

all the models also appear much to weak in the short term with this system given present trends...

[blp]

[cycloneye]

The latest at 1:45z

[Ptarmigan]

So much uncertainties with Matthew.

Scenarios:
1.) Makes landfall on Central America and dies off.
2.) Heads for Florida.
3.) Goes to the Gulf of Mexico.
4.) Lingers over the Caribbean and becomes a monsterous hurricane.

None are enticing.

[Vortex]

18Z MM5 turns sharper to the NE...I've been following it this year closely and has done well this year.


http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/st ... ts_wn.html

[otowntiger]

I heard a local met here in Orlando just a little earlier this evening actually say that 'we are getting close to that time of the season where rapid intensification is much less likely.' I'm not sure that's a correct statement. I've seen numerous storms over the years in late Sept/early Oct. really ramp up in a hurry. Did the guy 'mispeak' or am I crazy?

[HURAKAN]

The NHC may go to 50 mph at 11 pm