ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

Dont get over excited yet.. it still turns the forecast is highly uncertain past 3 days right now.. it also is now forecast to be hurricane tomorrow..

yeah, it amazes me, there is still a turn at the end, yet many are jumping up and down like this is all over...

Exactly...and I just made the exact point. If Matt doesn't commit hurricide over CA...and follows this CURRENT NHC track (note I put the current in all caps...because it will change again)...then there WILL be a northeast turn at the day 6 and day 7 point.

If the NHC has NAILED this current track...let's pretend for the sake of argument...and Matthew is over the Yucatan at day 5...then there will most certainly be a turn to the northeast next week and the SW coast of FL will be under the gun late next week or next weekend.

Matter of fact...this is almost WORSE for landfall. A quicker NE turn meant Matthew could have passed south of Florida as it rides up the east coast. This shift to the left almost guarantees a strike. Give the divergent nature of the atmosphere...it will have plenty of time to ramp up from the Yucatan to SW FL.

[Sanibel]

Still though Yucatan has put the brakes on another potential problem storm this year.

[Aquawind]

I'm totally confused. Some say that this storm with dissipate over the Yucatan, so I feel that is good news for Fl. Then, others say S Fl is likely to be in danger of being hit next week. I know the path is uncertain at best right now, but who is most likely to be accurate at this point?

Nobody knows and if you read way back on both this and the model thread you will understand.. your not alone..

[HURAKAN]

I'm totally confused. Some say that this storm with dissipate over the Yucatan, so I feel that is good news for Fl. Then, others say S Fl is likely to be in danger of being hit next week. I know the path is uncertain at best right now, but who is most likely to be accurate at this point?

Read the NHC discussion ... right now we're in uncertain territory

[wxman57]

if mat washes out over CA and thats a big if we would likely be dealing with nicole in 4-6 days in the vicinity of jamaica...

I don't see any feature behind Matthew that will develop. I think that the models may be suggesting that the wave just ahead of Matthew may reach the BoC and interact with the cold front there early next week, possibly developing. But Matthew is the eastern system.

[Evil Jeremy]

but who is most likely to be accurate at this point?

Anyone here, but you have to ask them what happened 10 days from now.

[mf_dolphin]

I'm totally confused. Some say that this storm with dissipate over the Yucatan, so I feel that is good news for Fl. Then, others say S Fl is likely to be in danger of being hit next week. I know the path is uncertain at best right now, but who is most likely to be accurate at this point?

The simple answer is that as long as it's south and west of Florida with nothing to push it into CA we pay attention and make sure we're ready just in case.

[Air Force Met]

Wow, the new cone has it sitting in the middle of the Yucatan for 48 hours at least. That would have to be the end of Matthew, even a strong hurricane would be hard pressed to sit over land for 48+ hours without dying off. If it were continuing to move then it would be no problem, but that's not what the NHC thinks will happen.

Sorry...but that's not correct. What will happen is it will weaken...the inner core will collapse and the wind field will spread out. In the end...you will be left with a larger circulation. It will take a little longer for it to get its act together once it moves off the Yucatan...but there will be plenty of LLC left to do it with.

[Vortex]

Interesting snipet:



THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SEVERAL OF THEM SHOWING RATHER
COMPLEX SCENARIOS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL MOVE MATTHEW
WELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN
2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY WEAKEN
MATTHEW...THEN DEVELOP A SECOND CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...GFDL....AND HWRF
KEEP MATTHEW AS THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AND SHOW IT TURNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS THAN NORMAL.

[Weatherfreak000]

To imagine how high the uncertainty behind the track we have here...I mean it's almost mind-boggling isn't it? I feel like this is a true test for the NHC to see if the TCVN is really all that good I kid, but seriously I cannot remember a storm in recent memory with this much model divergence and when you factor in the GFS ensembles, track uncertainty, and the incredibly challenging task of determining how a system will deal with such complicated landmass interaction, it makes it feel truly awesome to be witnessing it. If you are figuring the ensembles in then the GOM in general is still in play, HWRF as well.


Who knows....we may even see the ACE boost we need in September to be hyperactive BEFORE October.

[cycloneye]

AFM, do you see a second cyclone forming next week in the Western Caribbean as some models are progging?

[Vortex]

whether its matt or nicole, given the deep trough it's very likely a cyclone of some sort will be heading towards fl in the next 7-10 days...

[Florida1118]

This is Wilma as many know. Should we have been jumping up and down because the track moved from FL to the Gulf? The tracks shift. They always do. 2 Adv. later, the track again has Wilma going to FL. Even though the track isn't specifically pointing out a state anymore, it just right at 5am or 11am or so forth...and this goes for any state not just Florida....if any of you say "well you want it to come to your area" or some junk like that...Dont.

(Wilma's shifted track....)


(2 Adv. later....)

[HURAKAN]

Thanks to all the pro-Mets for taking your time to explain!!

[otowntiger]

I heard a local met here in Orlando just a little earlier this evening actually say that 'we are getting close to that time of the season where rapid intensification is much less likely.' I'm not sure that's a correct statement. I've seen numerous storms over the years in late Sept/early Oct. really ramp up in a hurry. Did the guy 'mispeak' or am I crazy?

Ask him if he ever heard of Wilma (mid October) or Mitch (late October) or Opal (early October), or a bunch of other rapid intensifiers in the Caribbean late in the season. This is a prime region for rapid intensification, particularly this time of year.

That's what I thought, wxman57! Mitch and Wilma were the first two I thought of. I just couldn't remember if they actually underwent RI, but they had to have in order to get as strong as they were in such a short time. I do think it was an irresponsible thing to say. He may have just been trying to downplay the situation, why I'm not sure, but he certainly said. I will have less confidence in that guy from here on out. Thanks for the reply wxman57.

[artist]

yes, thank you!!!

[JTD]

Wow, the new cone has it sitting in the middle of the Yucatan for 48 hours at least. That would have to be the end of Matthew, even a strong hurricane would be hard pressed to sit over land for 48+ hours without dying off. If it were continuing to move then it would be no problem, but that's not what the NHC thinks will happen.

Sorry...but that's not correct. What will happen is it will weaken...the inner core will collapse and the wind field will spread out. In the end...you will be left with a larger circulation. It will take a little longer for it to get its act together once it moves off the Yucatan...but there will be plenty of LLC left to do it with.

AFM,

What about Isidore 2002 though? It was never the same after the Yucatan.

[tina25]

Even if Matthew sits over the Yucatan for a few days, there is still plenty of real estate for it to gain a bit of strength over the warm GOM.. look what Charley did.

[Air Force Met]

if mat washes out over CA and thats a big if we would likely be dealing with nicole in 4-6 days in the vicinity of jamaica...

I don't see any feature behind Matthew that will develop. I think that the models may be suggesting that the wave just ahead of Matthew may reach the BoC and interact with the cold front there early next week, possibly developing. But Matthew is the eastern system.

That's where I think the GFS is getting confused. Its developing something out of nothing. Throws everything off.

[Florida1118]

if mat washes out over CA and thats a big if we would likely be dealing with nicole in 4-6 days in the vicinity of jamaica...

I don't see any feature behind Matthew that will develop. I think that the models may be suggesting that the wave just ahead of Matthew may reach the BoC and interact with the cold front there early next week, possibly developing. But Matthew is the eastern system.

My local Met. said because all the low pressure and moisture, and Matt being apart of the monsoon thing (I dont know the word...) that because Matt develops that Nicole develops...Is that a possibility do you think? thanks for taking the time to explain things to us amateurs!