Evil Jeremy wrote:wxman57 wrote:12Z models shifted 30-40 miles south on the initial track, taking Matthew well inland across Nicaragua/Honduras and only briefly over water before reaching Belize. Then inland to west of Belize followed by a turn NE as the front picks it up.
I was always confused by this, so please clear this up for me: What 12z models are you referring to? Do you refer to the 06z GFS, GFDL, HWRF models, as well as others that run during that time, as the 12zs?
It's not the 12Z global models, they don't come in for another 3-4 hrs. But there are 12Z "early" models that include the GFDL, HWRF (and variations) as well as, of course, the BAMs. Trend is definitely farther south, but there are more now indicating a NE hook back out over the NW Caribbean in 4-5 days.