Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

H192..powerful hurricane makes landfall near Tampa....




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif

[Ivanhater]

I notice it moves pretty much due north from the Caribbean...depending on where the low pressure forms it could move due north toward the Panhandle before the NE turn..

Hits just north of Tampa this run

[Vortex]

Once again another run of the GFS another hurricane landfall across FL...The devils in the details...

[caneseddy]

I notice it moves pretty much due north from the Caribbean...depending on where the low pressure forms it could move due north toward the Panhandle before the NE turn..

Hits just north of Tampa this run

All depends where the new low pressure forms; if the GFS is right, then West-Central FL gets smacked; a bit further east, where the NAM depicts it, you have a hurricane heading towards SFL (extrapolating of course); a bit further west than the GFS, then Panhandle

Can't wait for the Euro since it has had a Charley/Wilma track (albeit weak) for the past runs

[srainhoutx]

The GFS is ceratinly providing a lot of entertaining solutions lately. Today we have a cyclone hitting the W Coast of FL to only be driven S back to the Western Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Canes. The shape of Florida means the north movement out of the Caribbean could hit any part of the state.

BTW the trough doesn't pick it up this run and it heads back south toward the Caribbean lol

[Bocadude85]

I notice it moves pretty much due north from the Caribbean...depending on where the low pressure forms it could move due north toward the Panhandle before the NE turn..

Hits just north of Tampa this run

[img]]

Yea will depend on where the low consolidates.. could ride right up the spine of the stats also.

[Vortex]

Everyone in florida needs to pay close attention to this developing situation....

[caneseddy]

I notice it moves pretty much due north from the Caribbean...depending on where the low pressure forms it could move due north toward the Panhandle before the NE turn..

Hits just north of Tampa this run

[img]]

Yea will depend on where the low consolidates.. could ride right up the spine of the stats also.

I have always feared a strong hurricane moving South to North over South Florida more than from any other direction; you would have the entire metro areas and western suburbs smacked (like we were with Irene in 1999-although that was a water event)

[caneseddy]

Everyone in florida needs to pay close attention to this developing situation....

[Vortex]

I think Hurricane King of 1950 is an excellent analog...

[otowntiger]

H192..powerful hurricane makes landfall near Tampa....




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif

You guys know more about these models than I do, but it looks to me that the lowest central pressure in that storm depicted is 987. That's a cat one at best. I realize that intensity forecasting is pretty much guessing but just a point of clarification. I know the system can go either way strength wise so I'm really not arguing that, its just that to me is not the depiction of 'powerful' hurricane, at least relatively speaking. Certainly its big and well defined, but doesn't look to be a major in that image.

[Aquawind]

The GFS is ceratinly providing a lot of entertaining solutions lately. Today we have a cyclone hitting the W Coast of FL to only be driven S back to the Western Caribbean.

Wow! LOL OMGosh!1 I have got to load that loop.. I thought I was already amazed today..lol GFS..LOL Nutzoidal..

[Vortex]

GFS with a 987 would be strong cat 2

[otowntiger]

Once again another run of the GFS another hurricane landfall across FL...The devils in the details...

This has been a very consistant solution. One week ago a storm was shown almost this same exact position and time. I'm beginning to think there could be some real validity here. Thanks for all the info and creating this thread Vortex. Well done!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

6Z GFS 850mb vorticty you can clearly see matt head inland and weaken as a new vorticity takes over in the western carribean...



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

That bit of animation is perhaps the best graphic I've seen on Matt and this 'future' system. Very ominous look to it at day 7. Very interesting indeed. .

This concerns me if that happens, as it looks like that cool front may just be about dissipated by the time that strong system is sitting on western Cuba. A weakness is left behind to help the new system (Nicole) head N or NNE, but may not really forcefully shunt it out in front of the front and head it rapidly to th NE. IF it just fades out, the sterring currents could be pretty weak, and the storm would simply meander slowly northward, threatening the enter west coast of Florida. -unless the east atlantic ridge starts rebuilding back in and causes the storm to head more westerly once in the GOM.

[Bocadude85]

I think Hurricane King of 1950 is an excellent analog...

Yea hurricane King in 1950 and tropical storm Fay could be good analogs for this potential system

[otowntiger]

GFS with a 987 would be strong cat 2

Are you saying that gfs usually under estimates intensity or are you saying that 987 in general is a strong cat 2? Because I would respectfully take issue with the latter, emphasis on 'respectfully'.

[Vortex]

H192..powerful hurricane makes landfall near Tampa....




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif

You guys know more about these models than I do, but it looks to me that the lowest central pressure in that storm depicted is 987. That's a cat one at best. I realize that intensity forecasting is pretty much guessing but just a point of clarification. I know the system can go either way strength wise so I'm really not arguing that, its just that to me is not the depiction of 'powerful' hurricane, at least relatively speaking. Certainly its big and well defined, but doesn't look to be a major in that image.

Strong cat 2 using “powerful” is relative in terms of location…Coming into Tampa this would be a huge deal with storm surge…I should of clarified

[caneseddy]

The GFS is ceratinly providing a lot of entertaining solutions lately. Today we have a cyclone hitting the W Coast of FL to only be driven S back to the Western Caribbean.

Wow! LOL OMGosh!1 I have got to load that loop.. I thought I was already amazed today..lol GFS..LOL Nutzoidal..

Apparently, it forms Nicole, which hits Tampa, goes back down to Cuba; at the same time the GFS develops Otto in the Caribbean from the same monsoonal trough, and takes that across the DR to east of the Bahamas with Nicole (or what's left of it) back in the Western Caribbean...aahhh the GFS long range never ceases to amaze