Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps at H120...on it with broad low pressure over NW carribean...run still updating...




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ospreygrad]

What a complex forecast in the next seven days. This just goes to show how mother nature can be rather devilish. It is becoming more apparent with a good percentage of the reliable models that with TC Matthew moving inland over Central America, the transfer of the energy in the NW Caribbean will probably spawn Nicole.

Watching all of this evolve should it manifest will really be one of the top stories of this 2010 Atlantic Tropical Season. My biggest fear is that should Nicole form with so much energy and ripe conditions in the NW Caribbean, she could be as strong as any cyclone we have seen this season. It really is shaping up to a potential major threat to all of us here in Florida next week. It is a worrisome situation for the peninsula and we just have to closely monitor what happens over these next seven days.

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps H180...This will be a very large storm....



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

12Z canadian..probablly too fast...moves over SFL....



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[caneseddy]

12Z canadian..probablly too fast...moves over SFL....



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Another model over Florida; let's see what Euro does (prior runs had a Florida hit)

Now we have GFS, Canadian, NAM, Nogaps (maybe) hinting at a storm around the peninsula

[HURAKAN]

Weird and interesting days ahead!

[SouthFloridawx]

It's very strange how large a system that it develops.

[BigA]

I don't buy the NOGAPS solution. You don't get a storm that big and coreless unless you have an Isidore type event (and to a much lesser extent Ike), where a large storm loses its core but gets bigger over land.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

WRF agrees with the other models on a strong tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean, but it looks like if the WRF verified it would keep the name Matthew.

[Vortex]

12Z HWRF on it...south of cuba at H126...Again indications are this will have a vey large circulation...it will probablly take some time to get going .



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

00Z ECM....last night's euro...S of cuba...12Z out within the hour....




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[ronjon]

I'm starting to think that this new storm (nicole) might be baroclinically induced and not truely tropical - sure it'll have tropical characteristics but the latest GFS dips a strong trough (more winter time looking really) down to the northern gulf coast - this apparently is the spark that gets the system going south of Cuba. So, what we might end up with is a rather large sub-tropical storm, perhaps bordering on CAT 1 conditions, that moves north out of the caribbean.

[Vortex]

12Z GFS 850mb vorticity...You can follow the vorticity until genesis...Deep juice coming from the EPAC and SW carribean...This overall envelope will cover alot of real estate....




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

I'm starting to think that this new storm (nicole) might be baroclinically induced and not truely tropical - sure it'll have tropical characteristics but the latest GFS dips a strong trough (more winter time looking really) down to the northern gulf coast - this apparently is the spark that gets the system going south of Cuba. So, what we might end up with is a rather large sub-tropical storm, perhaps bordering on CAT 1 conditions, that moves north out of the caribbean.

This will be a fascinating storm to watch evolve....

[Vortex]

It looks like a shot of east pac energy shoots NE across Central america and ignites the broad area of low pressure present across the western carribean...

[ospreygrad]

One thing is becoming certain and that whatever comes out of this mess down there will apparently have a large circulation envelope. All of that moisture and energy will be heading northward next week.

[Vortex]

12Z euro running...H72 matthew inland S of BOC...Broad area of low pressure present over NW carribean...looks very much like GFS...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP072.gif

[Vortex]

12Z Euro...another look at H72



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP072.gif

[Vortex]

H96..Here we go...Low pressure consolidating over NW carribean




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif

[Vortex]

H96 500mb



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif

[Vortex]

H120 strenthening...likely Nicole at this point near the cayman islands...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif