Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[ronjon]

HPC afternoon discussion:

T.S. MATTHEW EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY. SEE NHC ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN INSISTENT BUT SOMEWHAT ERRATIC ON ANOTHER AREA OF
CYCLOGENSIS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. A CONTINUED WESTERLY PHASE MJO IS CURRENTLY
AND FORECAST TO KEEP UP ANOMALOUSLY WESTERLY H850 MB WINDS OVER
THE TROPICAL EPAC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS CREATES FAVORABLE
BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ALONG WITH FAVORABLE CHI VERTICAL
VELOCITY ANOMALIES SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME FORM OF CYCLOGENSIS IN
THIS REGION. ALL GLOBAL MODELS GFS/ECMWF/NGPS/CMC/UKMET AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTER
ROUGHLY NEAR WRN CUBA BY DAY 7 FRI. SEE FUTURE NHC/TPC
DISCUSSIONS. HPC PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS AGAIN THE DEPICTION BY
ECMWF ENS MEAN. THIS WOULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN
INTO FLORIDA LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Vortex]

H120 500 mb



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[Vortex]

NWS Miami discussion this afternoon....Notice last paragraph.



.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO
THE CWA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED POPS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREA.

THE WEATHER FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND IF ANY
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA LIKE THE LONG RANGES MODELS ARE
SHOWING AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE TROPICS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

[Vortex]

I have a quick meeting to run too...Maybe someone else can post the remaing ECM...

[otowntiger]

I'm starting to think that this new storm (nicole) might be baroclinically induced and not truely tropical - sure it'll have tropical characteristics but the latest GFS dips a strong trough (more winter time looking really) down to the northern gulf coast - this apparently is the spark that gets the system going south of Cuba. So, what we might end up with is a rather large sub-tropical storm, perhaps bordering on CAT 1 conditions, that moves north out of the caribbean.

That actually makes some sense to me. That could explain why the system is so large and never really intense as far as tropical systems are in any of the models. hmmm.

[caneseddy]

My mistake..wrong run

[Ivanhater]

That was the 00z run

[Ivanhater]

However...the 12z run is similar

[caneseddy]

Looks like this run misses the US like the previous run although a little bit stronger


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro keeps Nicole as a TS and misses Florida to the east and strengthens as it shoots up the east coast safely offshore:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[caneseddy]

To recap:

12Z Euro: East of Florida
12Z GFS: West-Central Florida (north of Tampa)
12Z NAM: south of Florida
12Z Canadian: South Florida
12Z NOGAPS: Western Cuba
12Z HWRF: keeps Matthew intact and has it west of the Caymans



What a mess early next week is going to be; dare I say...wobble watching next week

[otowntiger]

Looks like this run misses the US like the previous run although a little bit stronger


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

well that is certainly less interesting, but good. Is this going to be a trend? Wow, talk about a lot of time focusing on a pouch 10 days ago expecting some sort of monster storm only to become a weak t.s. burying itself into CA and then the teasing of the models about a 'new' surprise storm developing out of the Carribean to slam FL and now just a big broad, weak low pressure area that doesn't even make a CONUS landfall. Pretty funny if nothing comes of all this, as far as the CONUS is concerned. I know there will be disasterous flooding from Matthew in CA however which certainly is not nothing.

[caneseddy]

Looks like this run misses the US like the previous run although a little bit stronger


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

well that is certainly less interesting, but good. Is this going to be a trend? Wow, talk about a lot of time focusing on a pouch 10 days ago expecting some sort of monster storm only to become a weak t.s. burying itself into CA and then the teasing of the models about a 'new' surprise storm developing out of the Carribean to slam FL and now just a big broad, weak low pressure area that doesn't even make a CONUS landfall. Pretty funny if nothing comes of all this, as far as the CONUS is concerned. I know there will be disasterous flooding from Matthew in CA however which certainly is not nothing.

Euro is the only model that misses the CONUS..some of the other models (GFS, Canadian) have Fl landfall..even the pro mets such as Wxman and AFM have stated that there is a high likelihood Florida gets impacted by something next week; how strong....who knows?..like I said next week will be interesting

[Cuber]

Nothing personal to all of you who thrive on watching and predicting these storms, (I do appreciate reading your opinions and insight and viewing all the computer runs you post here) but as someone who is 5-6 years older, crankier and creakier than I was during Jeanne and Frances and Wilma, I'm hoping that the voodoo effects of Gaston remain there in the Caribbean for the rest of this silly season. My shutters are a b*t*h to put up.

[ospreygrad]

To recap:

12Z Euro: East of Florida
12Z GFS: West-Central Florida (north of Tampa)
12Z NAM: south of Florida
12Z Canadian: South Florida
12Z NOGAPS: Western Cuba
12Z HWRF: keeps Matthew intact and has it west of the Caymans



What a mess early next week is going to be; dare I say...wobble watching next week

If I had to make a comparison, just throw darts and see where it lands. LOL. That is what the models have me feeling like right now with this situation in the Western Caribbean.

[caneseddy]

NWS Melbourne (emphasis on bold)

24/12Z MODEL UPDATE...

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE TREND OF
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
LIFT IT NORTH ACROSS CUBA MID TO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO EASTERN
U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IS REGENERATION OF TC MATTHEW OR A SEPARATE SYSTEM (NICOLE?).
SYSTEMS CAN BE SLOWER COMING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN THAN MODELS
EXPECT SO HPC BRINGS THIS CYCLONE ONLY TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE... AT THAT TIME...GFS HAS IT JUST OFF
THE SW FL COAST AND THE ECMWF IS JUST OFF THE SE FL COAST...BOTH
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THIS FEATURE SINCE IT MAY NOT EXIST YET SO CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW IN THE EXTENDED FCST.

Glad to know they know much more than we do

[otowntiger]

Looks like this run misses the US like the previous run although a little bit stronger


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

well that is certainly less interesting, but good. Is this going to be a trend? Wow, talk about a lot of time focusing on a pouch 10 days ago expecting some sort of monster storm only to become a weak t.s. burying itself into CA and then the teasing of the models about a 'new' surprise storm developing out of the Carribean to slam FL and now just a big broad, weak low pressure area that doesn't even make a CONUS landfall. Pretty funny if nothing comes of all this, as far as the CONUS is concerned. I know there will be disasterous flooding from Matthew in CA however which certainly is not nothing.

Euro is the only model that misses the CONUS..some of the other models (GFS, Canadian) have Fl landfall..even the pro mets such as Wxman and AFM have stated that there is a high likelihood Florida gets impacted by something next week; how strong....who knows?..like I said next week will be interesting

Well that is the all important question. Are there any models that make whatever this mystery system is a strong or dangerous hurricane? The ones I've seen lately project a moderate to weak system, not unlike the Euro, except they show a landfall and the Euro does not.

[otowntiger]

[quote="caneseddy"]NWS Melbourne (emphasis on bold)

24/12Z MODEL UPDATE...

. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THIS FEATURE SINCE IT MAY NOT EXIST YET SO CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW IN THE EXTENDED FCST.

In other words this could be a whole lotta nothin'. let hope!

[caneseddy]

NWS Melbourne (emphasis on bold)

24/12Z MODEL UPDATE...

. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THIS FEATURE SINCE IT MAY NOT EXIST YET SO CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW IN THE EXTENDED FCST.

In other words this could be a whole lotta nothin'. let hope!

I just pictured Hurricane Irene from 1999 with this; weak hurricane that passed over Cuba, was projected to go to the west coasr; emerged north of Cuba more towards the East and intensified to 80 mph before unleashing flooding on the metro areas; could be a good analog for this

[fci]

NWS Melbourne (emphasis on bold)

24/12Z MODEL UPDATE...

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE TREND OF
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
LIFT IT NORTH ACROSS CUBA MID TO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO EASTERN
U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IS REGENERATION OF TC MATTHEW OR A SEPARATE SYSTEM (NICOLE?).
SYSTEMS CAN BE SLOWER COMING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN THAN MODELS
EXPECT SO HPC BRINGS THIS CYCLONE ONLY TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE... AT THAT TIME...GFS HAS IT JUST OFF
THE SW FL COAST AND THE ECMWF IS JUST OFF THE SE FL COAST...BOTH
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THIS FEATURE SINCE IT MAY NOT EXIST YET SO CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW IN THE EXTENDED FCST.

Glad to know they know much more than we do

I have found Melbourne to be more forthright and open on their analysis than Miami usually is.
Maybe due to the size of the audience but I usually check on Melbourne's take on things since Miami generally is very conservative and close to the vest on what they discuss.
However, they are being quite open on their thoughts for next week and the possibility of troubles from the tropics:

The weather for middle to end of next week will all depend if any
low develops in the Caribbean Sea like the long ranges models are
showing at this time. At this time will keep scattered probability of precipitation in
the forecast with easterly wind flow...and will continue to monitor
the latest long range models for the middle to end of next week.


Residents and visitors of South Florida need to continue to
monitor the latest information on the tropics from the National
Hurricane Center.

That gives me more pause to be concerned as I find that Miami usually ignores a lot of conjecture.
They are taking the models seriously