Caribbean - Central America Weather

[BZSTORM]

well not happy bunny this morning after seeing latest spagetti map of tracks for 95L, currently its pouring hard rain at my location which is actually Seien Bight Village 3 miles North of Placencia Village. Got to try & get some supplies in today if I can find a taxi to do it. Looking bad for us right now.

[msbee]

Let's hope the models are wrong, but be vigilant and prepared.

here is a stormcarib report from Honduras.
Sounds like they are preparing too.

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... uras.shtml

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A TUTT WILL EXTEND TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE TEN DAY PERIOD.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOWER PRESSURE PREVAILS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA ON MONDAY. AROUND MID WEEK THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING
NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAZY SKIES PERSISTED BUT VISIBILITIES WERE NOT AS
IMPAIRED AS YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASED...NOT
DUE TO MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS...BUT RATHER FROM A NARROW
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.
THIS TRIGGERED MORE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THAN IN THE WEST...SO
FAR...BUT STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. PART OF THE IMPEDIMENT TO THIS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE
HEAVY LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS WHICH HAS DRAPED MOST OF THE ISLAND
MOST OF THE DAY. MODELS KEEP A FADING UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSE TO THE
AREA EVEN AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE LOW PRESSURE THERE AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS
WHILE THE DEPRESSION DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT 4 DAYS. MUST DISCOUNT THE NAM FORECAST RIGHT OFF
HAND SINCE IT BRINGS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WHICH IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY. GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH CARRY IT WEST OR WEST
NORTHWEST AND THIS IS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
FEEDER BANDS AND CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AS IT DEVELOPS AND BOTH MODELS SHOW PERIODS OF GOOD
MOISTURE FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AREA WIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS IN THE NORMAL DAILY PATTERN OF DOWNWIND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
AND WINDWARD COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNINGS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY HIGHER
TOPS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TUTT. NO TROPICAL
SYSTEMS APPEAR ON THE 10-DAY HORIZON THAT WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT
PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 15 KTS OR GREATER WITH OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND
GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES. HAZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF 13 AND 14 SECONDS FROM
THE NORTH WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WHIP UP 7 TO 9 SECOND
WAVES FROM THE EAST THAT WILL CREATE CONFUSED SEAS WHEREVER THEY
MEET. EXPECT THESE TO DIE VERY SLOWLY AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO IF NOT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[msbee]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 232041
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA TO LIMON HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. MATTHEW IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MATTHEW COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MATTHEW MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[abajan]

It looks like Barbados is well on track to recording its highest rainfall total for a calendar year. Up to this point, Grantley Adams Airport has recorded 1477.5 mm (58.17 inches) of rain which is already significantly more than what they would normally get in an entire year. What makes this especially noteworthy is the fact that from late last year well into this year, Barbados recorded its worst drought ever! The thing is, we’re not even into the real meat of the rainy season as yet which is usually from about mid October to mid November. Our wettest year was 1966 (the same year we became an independent nation, BTW) when the airport got 1828.55 mm (71.99 inches) of rain. That means the airport only needs 351.05 mm (13.82 inches) more rain for the remainder of 2010 to tie the record. Should be a piece o’ cake!

Incidentally, from what I can tell, rainfall records at Grantley Adams (formerly Seawell) only go back to 1942. It is also important to note that the airport is located in one of the driest areas of the island. (It is not at all unusual to hear of torrential rainfall occurring in central and northwestern parts of the island when the airport is simultaneously being drenched in brilliant sunshine with nary a raindrop in sight.)

More interesting info...

Okay, what on earth is going on?
Whereas a couple days ago the total rainfall accumulated for 2010 was stated as 1477.5 mm (58.17 inches) at this link, the figure on that same page is now 1216.8 mm (47.91 inches)!
So instead of 351.05 mm (13.82 inches), the airport needs an additional 611.75 mm (24.08 inches) of rain to tie the record set in 1966. In spite of this change, I still think the record will be broken because I expect a wetter than usual October to December period, compliments of La Niña. (Just a hunch but time will tell.)

[BZSTORM]

NEMO Belize announced this evening that in the morning they will put into effect phase 1 in regard to TS Matthew, all schools in Belize will be closed tomorrow to enable the ones used as hurricane shelters to be prepared. No rain here right now heard from froend in Punta Negra area that they have had constant rain for an hour, which shows on the radar. After a pretty calm afternoon the wind is up but guessing no more than 10 - 15 knots which is pretty much average for this time of year. Have allot to do tomorrow preparing for possible arrival of TS/Hurr Matthew. Belize is small country and if cyclone big enough it will engulf the whole of Belize, expecting allot of rain no matter what path Matthew takes.
Also hoping that system that showed up on the 60Hr BAMS run is just BAMS being weird, it was on the TS Matthew model thread to have another system come up behind Matthew so quick would be very bad for the whole caribbean.

[msbee]

Issued: Friday, September 24, 2010 555 am EDT/455 am CDT

For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.

Invest 95-L In The South-Central Caribbean:
For Information About Tropical Storm Matthew with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3257.

Matthew has become better organized overnight and infrared satellite imagery showed some very cold cloud tops associated with the storm. It appears that Matthew is being affected by about 15 knots of east-northeasterly wind shear and this has slightly displaced the deepest convection just to the west of the center of circulation.
Matthew is tracking nearly due west at a forward speed of 16 mph. The storm is on the south side of a ridge of high pressure which will steer Matthew on a west to west-northwest track over the next couple of days. After Sunday, the model guidance, both the track guidance and the global model guidance, diverge wildly with the global model guidance forecasting a track into the southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL, HWRF and the GFS ensemble mean show a different scenario in that they forecast Matthew to reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and then turn northeastward. It should be noted that 15 of the 20 members of the GFS ensemble model http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al152010_ens.png forecast that Matthew will track north to northeastward east of the Yucatan Peninsula straight for the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Peninsula. This is a shift eastward from the previous ensemble model run. In addition, the latest TVCN model, which is a track model consensus, http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al152010.png, forecasts that Matthew will track northward along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to extreme western Cuba by Wednesday morning.

The reason for these wild differences in the model guidance is because of the interaction between Matthew and a developing monsoon low pressure system over Central America and the adjacent waters and also the interaction between the storm and a developing trough of low pressure over the central and eastern United States.

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast from 5 am Eastern Time this morning is based on a compromise between the two model extremes and it is forecasting a very slow track northward across the Yucatan Peninsula. They emphasize, however, that is a low confidence track forecast and that significant changes in the forecast track may be needed with either the 11 am or 5 pm advisory time.

Here is my thinking on the forecast track of Matthew: I think this storm will end up "bouncing off" the coast of Belize late Saturday night or Sunday morning and not dissipate like some of the model guidance suggests. I then think that Matthew may track north to northeastward out of the northwestern Caribbean around the middle part of next week. I have a really hard time believing in the idea of a second storm ramping up to the east of Matthew and it may be that the model guidance are having a really hard time picking out Matthew with all of the energy that is now bundling in the western Caribbean.

I do think Matthew will become a hurricane before it interacts with the north coast of Honduras on Saturday. After Sunday, Matthew's intensity will highly depend on where it tracks exactly. If the global model guidance ends up being correct, then dissipation is likely over eastern Mexico. If the GFS ensemble mean, GFDL, HWRF and TVCN models ends up being correct, then much more intensification would be likely over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean.

A lot depends on how far inland Matthew may track into the Yucatan Peninsula. The further inland it tracks, the weaker it will become, potentially to the point of dissipation. If Matthew skirts the coast like some of the guidance suggests, then we could be looking at a potentially serious situation with an intensifying hurricane tracking into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about six days from now. Looking at the potential upper level pattern for late next week, it suggests that any tropical cyclone that makes it into the southern Gulf of Mexico would steered north-northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula.

All interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Panhandle should pay very close attention to the progress of Matthew.

For information about Tropical Depression Lisa, which is expected to remain out in the open Atlantic and not be a threat to any landmasses, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3234 .

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT/5 am CDT Saturday morning.

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST FRI SEP 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GENERALLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TODAY. DECREASING
TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX A BIT...AND INCREASED LOCAL EFFECTS. IN
ADDITION...THE TUTT LOW VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO OUR WEST FOR THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...BEFORE FILLING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. FINALLY...PW
VALUES HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY OVER PAST 24 HORUS...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...NEAR TWO INCHES...THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED...EXPECT MAINLY QUICK PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT LOW TO OUR WEST. FOR SATURDAY...THE
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ISLAND
EFFECTS...AND MORE INTENSE/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONTINUED FAIRLY CLIMATOLOGICAL ISLAND INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ PULLING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH VERY FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS TIME FRAME...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AS GFS IS VERY
BULLISH IN BRINGING WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL
ALL SITES AS PATCHES OF LLVL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHRAS/TSRAS
TRACK RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION. ENE LLVL WINDS NEAR 15KTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...EXPECTED TODAY.

[Macrocane]

Hi guys! El Salvador is under yellow alert though it's still not raining but I guess it's just a question of time because Matthew is getting closer. I will keep you updated here and in Matthew's thread with the observations.

[cycloneye]

It looks like a wet period for the Eastern Caribbean when October arrives.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HISPANIOLA WILL PULL
NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
BE HALTED BY THE GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...BUT PRESSURES WILL REMAIN
LOWER IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
BEGINNING ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES
EAST AND STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY. THIS WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE
OUT OF THE DEEP TROPICS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN IN THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK AFTER NEXT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FILAMENT OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HAS
SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...INTERIOR PUERTO RICO...THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
INDICATED IN MARICAO WHERE POSSIBLY MORE THAN 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN...BUT
SAN JUAN ALSO HAD OVER ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE MIDNIGHT.
THE MOISTURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OTHER
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH
AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN MUCH MORE MOISTURE LATE
NEXT WEEK FOR A WET START TO OCTOBER. THIS IS BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE
FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXPECTED
NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AND THE CONTINUING PRESSURE WEAKNESS IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR SOUTH AMERICA. THE GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS
GENEROUS WITH THE MOISTURE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE ECMWF...BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE FREQUENCY OF QPF
GREATER THAN 0.01 INCH IT DEPICTS OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ALMOST EVERY
DAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER SAN JUAN WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE LATER NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THIS...BUT SINCE SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN CHANGING EACH MODEL RUN CERTAINTY IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ
THROUGH 24/22Z IN SHRA OR TSRA. PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER... QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJSJ AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EVERYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA JUST AS WINDS ALSO ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. ALSO
THE STRONG NORTHERLY SWELL HAS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY BOTH HERE
AND AT BUOY 42043. IN FACT AT THAT NORTHERN BUOY WIND WAVES ARE
NOW HIGHER THAN THE SWELL FROM DEARLY DEPARTED TROPICAL CYCLONES
IGOR AND JULIA. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS CANCELED
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AGAIN UNTIL
THE GENERATION OF A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A FETCH POINTED
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD BE AT LEAST 5 DAYS...POSSIBLY
EVEN 8 DAYS OR MORE AWAY.

[ospreygrad]

Hi guys! El Salvador is under yellow alert though it's still not raining but I guess it's just a question of time because Matthew is getting closer. I will keep you updated here and in Matthew's thread with the observations.

Macrocane I am praying for the best for you and everyone in that region. Please be safe down there and take whatever necessary precautions as Matthew could bring devastating flooding.

[abajan]

Hi guys! El Salvador is under yellow alert though it's still not raining but I guess it's just a question of time because Matthew is getting closer. I will keep you updated here and in Matthew's thread with the observations.

Macrocane I am praying for the best for you and everyone in that region. Please be safe down there and take whatever necessary precautions as Matthew could bring devastating flooding.

I just hope this doesn’t turn out to be anything like what happened with Mitch because there are real heavy duty rains with this.

[alanstover]

Does anyone have any reports of rainfall or other effects in Honduras? I haven´t found anything up to date yet this evening.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone have any reports of rainfall or other effects in Honduras? I haven´t found anything up to date yet this evening.

I have been trying to get information from Nicaragua and Honduras but with no results. Hopefully, tommorow we will have news as daylight breaks over there.

[BZSTORM]

Dead calm here tonight on the Placencia peninsula in Belize, radar shows in hour or so were going to have more rain, been squalls on & off all day with brilliant sunshine in between. Hoping Matthew keeps with program and sticks to NHC track, can second Abajan's comment re Mitch & rains - I well remember being stuck in Sittee River (where we left to shelter from Mitch) for 3 extra days waiting for water to go down enough for us to pass over bridge to get back to waterlogged peninsula which had at least 4" of water on the road - back then wasn't paved, for almost a week and my yard had 3" water for weeks. You run ut of warm dry clothes quick.
BZ Met on radio tonight warned that Belize could experience upto 18" rain over next 3 days in South & Central areas and winds 35kts or higher in 12 - 24 hrs, flash floods in low lying areas and costal areas expected. Provided we don't get a blackout & DSL goes down will keep you updated on whats happening here.

[alanstover]

Take care over there BZstorm, and anyone else in the storm´s path. I think this brings back memories of Mitch to all of us in CA. Hopefully it doesn´t get that bad, but according to sat imagery it looks like the storm is still going strong tonight.

We are praying for all who have been and will be effected.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
947 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVER HAITI IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THERE OVR
THE NEXT 48 HRS WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS XCPD
TO BUILD OVR THE AREA AT MID AND UPPER LVLS AND HOLD THROUGH SUN.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS XPCT TO CUT OFF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC
AND RETROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW NOW OVER HAITI WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. TRADES HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO
THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH SPEEDS NOW IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CONVECTION TOMORROW SHOULD CONCENTRATE
ACROSS WRN-NW PR AS WEAKENING TRADES SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THAT AREA AND STEERING FLOW BECOMES JUST
NORTH OF DUE WEST. STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE ESE ON SUN FAVORING
NW PR FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW/TUTT LOW FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC
MON WITH A COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN XPCD TO DEVELOP MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING SHALLOW
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS ATLC WATERS AND A DECREASE IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS XPCD TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS XPCD TO BECOME MORE SRLY. T
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE ADVECTION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
(PWS GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES) INTO OUR AREA AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS. THIS LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE
ONSET OF MORE FVRBL MJO CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.AVIATION...VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAFS
SITES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. QUICK PASSING SHRA OR VCSH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TISX AT LEAST UNTIL 25/14Z.
TYPICAL AFTN CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR
ARE EXPECTED AFT 25/17Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST AFT NOON...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW 7 FT AT ALL LOCAL BUOYS. GIVEN
DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS AND EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT WILL CANCEL ALL
ADVISORIES WITH EVENING CWF ISSUANCE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Wet weather is instored for the Eastern Caribbean by next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 AM AST SAT SEP 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...WILL RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...A DEEP SURGE IN MOISTURE IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INDUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE STEERING FLOW
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE ESE...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BE
SHADED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND.
WHILE THE TUTT LOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING IS STILL EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME VENTILATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POSITION OF THE TUTT TO HELP ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS AND COVERAGE ACROSS
W/NW PUERTO RICO TODAY.

AS TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW CONTINUES TO TRACK WNW NEAR THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET STEERED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...RESULTING
IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AS
ITCZ LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WITH VERY FAVORABLE
MJO CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS TIME FRAME...WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AS
GFS IS VERY BULLISH IN BRINGING WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAFS
SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. QUICK PASSING SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...AND TJSJ AT LEAST UNTIL 25/14Z. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ FROM 25/18Z-25/22Z. LLVL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA...AND ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

&&

[Gustywind]

[BZSTORM]

Morning everyone, ok still stuff to sort out so quick update last night heavy rain and breeze till 4.30am, sea is kicking I can hear the waves from my house i'm on the lagoon side my house coordinates is 16.34 N 88.21W. Right now rains stopped but wind gusting. Listening to radio for latest info from met dept and NEMO. So many idiots here who can't read a sat image and think eye already passing Belize...sigh, not paying attention to warnings about highest winds on NE quadrant which won't reach for anothr 12 or so hours. Will try & get some photos before next rain, I'm a photographer but can't afford for my camera to get wet, we suddenly realized the underwater one wasn't charged last night, but didn't want to put it on charge during night with thunder around the area. Caye caulkers weather center is reporting gusts upto 40mph, unfortunatly I don't have gauge to meassure wind temp here was 83F at 4am. All for now
Marion