Will the WGOM have any more tropical threats this season?

[South Texas Storms]

I'm beginning to think that Texas and Mexico will not have any more threats this year. Climatology certainly doesn't favor any more threats here and neither does the new pattern that we are about to enter. Does anyone agree with me?

[southerngale]

While it's possible, I seriously doubt it. If so, it would likely be south of Texas. JMO.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Don't see any further risk. Upper air pattern becoming quite unfavorable, water cooling, and much drier air dominating beginning next week.

[Portastorm]

While not impossible ... I'll chime in with the choir and say it seems very unlikely at this point that we'll see a landfalling tropical system in Texas. The "action" will be east of us.

[perk]

I'm more than happy to agree with all my previous posters.

[Ptarmigan]

The risk decreases. However, never say never.

Storms that made landfall after September 15th on Upper Texas Coast.

Total
15 Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

Hurricanes (Non-Major)
1882 Hurricane 3
1886 Hurricane 10
1963 Cindy
1989 Jerry

Major Hurricanes
1875 Indianola Hurricane
1941 Hurricane 2
1949 Hurricane 10
2005 Rita

Latest Tropical Cyclone
Tropical Storm 5 (1938) October 17, 1938

Latest Hurricane
Jerry (1989) October 15, 1989

Latest Major Hurricane
Hurricane 10 (1949) October 4, 1949

Probability For Landfall On and After September 15th on Upper Texas Coast
1 Tropical Cyclone=Every 9.3 years
1 Hurricane=Every 17.5 years
1 Major Hurricane=Every 35 years

2 Tropical Cyclones=Every 86.5 years
2 Hurricanes=Every 306.3 years
2 Major Hurricanes=Every 1225 years

3 Tropical Cyclones=Every 804.4 years
3 Hurricanes=Every 5,359,4 years
3 Major Hurricanes=Every 42,875 years

Keep in mind records go back to 1851 and it could be possible that tropical cyclones could of hit Texas as late as November and went unrecorded.

[srainhoutx]

Bones should show up...

[somethingfunny]

Has it been two years already?

Man.

Never say never.

[SETXWXLADY]

Don't see any further risk. Upper air pattern becoming quite unfavorable, water cooling, and much drier air dominating beginning next week.

AHHHH! Dryer and I hope cooler air. That sounds divine. Of course never say never. But I sure wouldn't mind 2 years in a row without a hit. While the lion share of our storms TX/LA area do come in September there have been a few in October. Hopin for the best this year though. Almost confident enough to paint my living room. And hopefully the only tree in it this year is the Christmas tree.

[gatorcane]

Hmmmm......have you seen the 06z gfs? Now brings Nicole to the western gom. Not that I believe that though.

[ROCK]

Hmmmm......have you seen the 06z gfs? Now brings Nicole to the western gom. Not that I believe that though.

oh I saw it...but with dry air in place over the Western to Mid CONUS whatever got close enough would be gulping dry air like a fish out of water.....

[Sambucol]

No, we won't have anymore tropical threats to the WGOM this season. We're done. Bring of fall!

[gatorcane]

No, we won't have anymore tropical threats to the WGOM this season. We're done. Bring of fall!

Well if you look at 2010, they systems stayed in Mexico to the south so very quiet in the WGOM on the U.S. side.........

[Portastorm]

Nah, we're done Gator. We Texans are a giving people ... so we will give you whatever tropical action is left for the year!

[StormClouds63]

No.

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

It still feels tropical down here, and whats this off the coast? Look at the LL clouds from SW Louisiana down the TX coast...no more rain please!

[jinftl]

Climatology would say 'stick a fork in it' in terms of the western gulf...and looking at the forecast this week for cold fronts passing through houston and low temps around 60 deg....all we can say here in florida is 'jealous'!!!

[South Texas Storms]

yeah i agree with a lot of you, i still think there is a slight chance, but that chance is diminishing every day.

[boca]

The future Nicole probably has Florida written on it I just hope it doesn't turn into a Wilma.

[South Texas Storms]

yeah me too. that 6z gfs run today was a bit crazy. i do think this is a florida threat.