Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

disregard the JMA link above...I put wrong link in...it's been one of those weeks

[Vortex]

H30 00Z NAM..it appears the nam begins the process over the south/central carribean sea...south of jamaica


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

[daisy32]

Here are the times the 00Z models start running...

NAM 10pm completes by 10:55PM ET
GFS 11:35pm completes by 12:50AM ET
NOGAPS 12:30AM completes by 130AM ET
Canadian 12:30AM completes by 115 AM ET
Canadian long range out by 1:30AM ET
ECMWF(Euro) starts around 215AM completes by 3AM ET

thanks for this! Is there a website where I can learn how to read recon data?

[dmbthestone]

My local mets are also quite confident in Windy conditions next Fri/Sat...Which they usually dont put TS conditions up until they are very sure...

What does Denis Phillips say?

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: disregard the JMA link above...I put wrong link in...it's been one of those weeks

LOL! I was gonna say, looks like GFS's twin!

[tina25]

The Big Dog chimes in...


According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi, "Whether it is Matthew, or a reformed version of it, perhaps with the name Nicole, a hit is coming for Florida later next week, then the storm could move north into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states."

Well there certainly is a heightened risk for Florida in my opinion so he may get this right.

I'm quite surprised of the general lack of interest when you have two global models targeting Florida run after run and the target is within 180 hours.

I think things will pick up if and when an invest gets activated. As of now, this is definitely concerning considering if the models are correct, we have less than 7 days. JB's comment is also sparking my interest as well.

Who knows though, tomorrow the models could paint a completely different picture. Although they have been consistent thus far, and you can't deny that.

[Vortex]

Here are the times the 00Z models start running...

NAM 10pm completes by 10:55PM ET
GFS 11:35pm completes by 12:50AM ET
NOGAPS 12:30AM completes by 130AM ET
Canadian 12:30AM completes by 115 AM ET
Canadian long range out by 1:30AM ET
ECMWF(Euro) starts around 215AM completes by 3AM ET

thanks for this! Is there a website where I can learn how to read recon data?

Might be a good place to start....



http://www.wunderground.com/about/reconreport.asp

[daisy32]

Here are the times the 00Z models start running...

NAM 10pm completes by 10:55PM ET
GFS 11:35pm completes by 12:50AM ET
NOGAPS 12:30AM completes by 130AM ET
Canadian 12:30AM completes by 115 AM ET
Canadian long range out by 1:30AM ET
ECMWF(Euro) starts around 215AM completes by 3AM ET

thanks for this! Is there a website where I can learn how to read recon data?

Might be a good place to start....



http://www.wunderground.com/about/reconreport.asp

Thanks Again!

[tampawx]

What does Denis Phillips say?[/quote]

Denis was not on tonight at 5 or 6 but Wayne Shattuck is only saying the models are hinting at the development
and it will be need to be watched.

[Florida1118]

What does Denis Phillips say?

I was referring to Baynews9...also TWC is following suite and puts Rain and Wind up for Fri/Sat...

[gatorcane]

The nam is backing off on consolidating a low. But hey it is the nam!

[Vortex]

it does well with the synoptics...continues to indicate by H72 very favorable conditions aloft over the NW carribean..Also run the loop through H72 and you can watch the monsoon trough lift north...

[Vortex]

00Z NAM loop...this storm is going to have one large envelope and circulation...speed up the loop and you see what i mean..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Florida1118]

00Z NAM loop...this storm is going to have one large envelope and circulation...speed up the loop and you see what i mean..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Theres 3 storms still including matt...they all seem to do the same thing...

[Vortex]

If you follow the loop(run fast) SA spits out some energy and as the monnsoon trough lifts north and a more organized low develops near jamaica..similar to the gfs...this run gives a good idea as to what may be the spark as well as the synoptics but lacks a well defined low...im sure over the next daya or so well have a better defined low..

[WeatherEmperor]

Interesting. Let's see what the GFS 00Z says later tonight. When does it start? 11:30pm?

[Vortex]

Interesting. Let's see what the GFS 00Z says later tonight. When does it start? 11:30pm?

11:35 ET

[Vortex]

00Z GFS rolling in 30...

[SouthDadeFish]

If Matthew survives like the NAM indicates, it will be interesting to see how it affects the development of a possible Nicole.

[TheDreamTraveler]

You guys see that cyclonic spin east of Matthew?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rgb.html