ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Macrocane]

What a crazy season, I think I have not seen such strong convection in a tropical cyclone in years.

[Florida1118]

Very strange on the track...Expect it to be post tropical then tropical again while still over land...

Never mind they fixed it

[TheDreamTraveler]

Very strange on the track...Expect it to be post tropical then tropical again while still over land...

Where did you get that image from? Maybe they made a mistake and updated it, because that's not what's on the official site.

[Macrocane]

Yep one of the local mets had the wrong map too and I was like WTH?

[Florida1118]

Very strange on the track...Expect it to be post tropical then tropical again while still over land...

Where did you get that image from? Maybe they made a mistake and updated it, because that's not what's on the official site.

It was a mistake. They fixed it. Were all human...

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder how much rain will fall out of Matthew, especially from ball of convection. Looks like a core rain event.

[Sanibel]

Always watch storms that burst while over land. Until we know this isn't re-emerging I'll be watching it. Matthew's curvature reaches over into EPAC.

[kevin]

Bet this storm gets back over water.

[SoupBone]

Hmmm...honestly he really doesn't look like he's ready to give up. On his current track what's stopping him from entering the GoM? He looks to be headed straight for it...

[ConvergenceZone]

Are you serious?! Have you read any of the posts in the NW Caribbean thread concerning what the models are developing next week?!

CourierPR, Yes I know, but the models have fooled us already this week with Matthew, and the way that this year has gone, I just can't put my faith in the models that something is going to develop. Maybe so, maybe not.

[Florida1118]

Are you serious?! Have you read any of the posts in the NW Caribbean thread concerning what the models are developing next week?!

CourierPR, Yes I know, but the models have fooled us already this weak with Matthew, and the way that this year has gone, I just can't put my faith in the models that something is going to develop. Maybe so, maybe not.

If it doesnt develop, thats a lot of models and Mets that will be dead wrong...

[kevin]

Are you serious?! Have you read any of the posts in the NW Caribbean thread concerning what the models are developing next week?!

CourierPR, Yes I know, but the models have fooled us already this weak with Matthew, and the way that this year has gone, I just can't put my faith in the models that something is going to develop. Maybe so, maybe not.

If it doesnt develop, thats a lot of models and Mets that will be dead wrong...

Happens all the time.

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[vbhoutex]

Hmmm...honestly he really doesn't look like he's ready to give up. On his current track what's stopping him from entering the GoM? He looks to be headed straight for it...

I'm not sure where you are getting that idea unless you are looking two or three days down the road and interpolating from the map above. Admittedly Matthew is having a huge convective burst right now and appears that he may get back out over the Bay of Honduras for a while before heading back into Belize, but with the trough coming down he should be turned back more towards the West and stay over land and hopefully lose his core before he makes it back over water a third time.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Normandy]

One of the best examples of over-land deepening/sustenance I have ever seen. Storms like Matthew are the reason funding is needed to research these things..we know so little.

[HurricaneRobert]

It would be interesting if it made it to the Pacific. Matthew could be the first to retain its name.

[SoupBone]

Hmmm...honestly he really doesn't look like he's ready to give up. On his current track what's stopping him from entering the GoM? He looks to be headed straight for it...

I'm not sure where you are getting that idea unless you are looking two or three days down the road and interpolating from the map above. Admittedly Matthew is having a huge convective burst right now and appears that he may get back out over the Bay of Honduras for a while before heading back into Belize, but with the trough coming down he should be turned back more towards the West and stay over land and hopefully lose his core before he makes it back over water a third time.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So the trough is going to keep him moving west? Yes I was looking at the NHC's three day and if you take that trend it would stick him right out into the Bay of Campeche. Just curious but doesn't the Monday 7pm coordinates show him very near the Bay of Campeche? Thanks for the explanation...

[Chacor]

Continues to generate deep -80°C cloud tops while over land:


And with that comes heavy rainfall:


The whites in the image represent over 1.5 inches an hour.

[Shuriken]

On the NHC's forecast plot, the remnant low will pop out right in the belly of the BoC: Opal Part Duex.

Not going to happen. Please read previous discussions...

So as not to tempt the Fates,, it would be more prudent to say that the NHC is abiding by model consensus which demurs the possibility of it happening.

[Shuriken]

One of the best examples of over-land deepening/sustenance I have ever seen. Storms like Matthew are the reason funding is needed to research these things..we know so little.

Over-land sustenance happens all the time, particularly over Central America and with especially over the very flat Yucatan. You see it with slow-moving systems over Florida (remember Jeane?), Texas and the northern Gulf coast. If a system is large and in an expansive ideal environment, and there's nothing coming along to kill, it'll sit there and grind away over land pulling in moisture from nearby sources. It won't be shredding the surface, but the vertical structure of the storm remains intact (aside from possibly losing an eyewall, if it had one)..

The current upper environment for Mattew could hardly be more ideal.

My unofficial and entirely contingent forecast is this: if, when Matthew's remnant low is over Guatemala, surface northerlies develop in the Bay of Campeche and begin feeding moisture into it -- the circulation will not die.

Regards the "next" storm the models want to develop; I think they're trying to make something happen underneath the divergence aloft on the lee side of the retrograding upper-trough/low trailing behind Matthew. Trouble is, Matthew appears to be filling it in.

Terrain: Matthew is chugging through the worst of it right now; once past the small Belize highland, it's all flat.