Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[hurricaneCW]

So once again we're in the process of searching for a storm to form because it didn't happen with Matthew, it will happen with the next system, however we are still a few days away from a potentially new system. This is the one that has its sights set for Florida, hopefully it's no stronger than a tropical storm.

[Vortex]

Snipet from NHC discussion on Matthew...continue to indicate posssible new cyclone not related to matthew...



FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION OF A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z 00 Hour

[SouthFloridawx]

24 Hours

[AtlanticWind]

THE WEATHER FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND IF ANY
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA LIKE THE LONG RANGES MODELS ARE
SHOWING AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE TROPICS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

From NWS Miami

[Vortex]

and we roll....Im guess H90 with low SSW of caymans....

[SouthFloridawx]

I am going with the 850mb Vorticity, because I figured it would be easier to track it.

[Ivanhater]

Just saw the 18z GFS...Interesting lol

[Vortex]

Just saw the 18z GFS...Interesting lol

I was wondering what took you so long

[Ivanhater]

That's a few runs now from the GFS not showing the trough picking this up

[SouthFloridawx]

[Ivanhater]

Just got back from downtown for some margaritas..it's the weekend

[Vortex]

H54 broad area of low pressure across western carribean with several lows....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

72

[Vortex]

H60 I've noticed several runs that begin with this low N of Honduras then eject the energy east into a main low between caymans and jamaica....energy split part of matthew??



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal060.gif

[Vortex]

H78 low N of honduras looks to deepen abit....




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal078.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

87

[Vortex]

H84 low N of Honduras looks to be the main low....If thats the case may head throught the channel and towards the panhandle down to tampa....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal084.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

96

[Blown Away]

Accuweather predictions for Oct 1-2:
City Sustained Gusts
Key West 43 mph 81 mph
Miami 33 mph 62 mph
Naples 30 mph 63 mph
WPB 33 mph 62 mph
Tampa 33 mph 74 mph

Wide spread TS sustained winds/gusts.