Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
Based on that GFS run I don't think it actually makes landfall in SFLA but the effects would sure be felt. As always timing will be everything...If it moves just a gnats hair faster it may be over South Florida versus offshore...
SFT
SFT
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
I'm qiute skeptical but when all the models are jumping I'm gonna watch.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
boca wrote:I'm qiute skeptical but when all the models are jumping I'm gonna watch.
I agree...People would argue that if they had a quarter for everytime a model trashed South Florida that they would be rich. With that being said I feel this may be the real deal since multiple models have shown this over and over for the past few days...
SFT
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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- SouthFloridawx
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
CMC run is much faster north than the Nogaps or the GFS
00Z CMC 00 Hours

96 Hours

120

144 Hours

00Z CMC 00 Hours

96 Hours

120

144 Hours

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00Z canadian takes storm into sw FL at H108....seems wayyy to fast....
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_108.jpg
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_108.jpg
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re:
Vortex wrote:00Z canadian takes storm into sw FL at H108....seems wayyy to fast....
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_108.jpg
That's exactly what I was saying a few minutes ago...A faster storm versus a slower storm is the difference of whether or not we get landfall in South Florida. If I was a betting man I'd say somewhere between the two extremes...Not as slow as the GFS but not as fast as the CMC.
SFT
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
H180 Nogaps over SE gulf......rea;;y interested to see the Euro tonight...was going to turn in but im going to try and hold out
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
I should go to bed myself but this is better than any reality show on TV...Maybe we should produce a reality show based on S2K! You think Hollywood would buy it???
SFT

SFT
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Considering that the system hasn't even formed yet I don't think I'll worry "yet." I guess the only guarantee at this point if there is any, is that next week looks foul with rain since the models have consistently shown the pattern. Intensity forecast is still a difficult science afterall, so I'd rather be optimistic.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
NWS miami....
THE WEATHER FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND IF ANY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA LIKE THE LONG RANGES MODELS ARE SHOWING AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WEATHER FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND IF ANY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA LIKE THE LONG RANGES MODELS ARE SHOWING AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
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Re:
Vortex wrote:H180 Nogaps over SE gulf......rea;;y interested to see the Euro tonight...was going to turn in but im going to try and hold out
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
I have to be at work 8am I can't do it.
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Re: Re:
boca wrote:Vortex wrote:H180 Nogaps over SE gulf......rea;;y interested to see the Euro tonight...was going to turn in but im going to try and hold out
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
I have to be at work 8am I can't do it.
I won't be able to do it either; going to get all the sleep I can get this weekend because this upcoming week is going to be wobble watching and restless nights and I
want to be ready
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
138 Nogaps
First area hits just east of the Panhandle..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2010092500&prod=prp&tau=138&set=Tropical

First area hits just east of the Panhandle..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2010092500&prod=prp&tau=138&set=Tropical

Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Not so fast...if you watch the vorticty run by the gfs matthew comes back east where it dumbells around another vorticity that forms along the monsoon trough where they then gel as one and the system cranks up....folks im really starting to think part of this system is the remnant of matthew.....
00Z GFS 850mb vorticity loop
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
00Z GFS 850mb vorticity loop
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
Ok, so we've got GFS to the right, CMC, left/middle, and NOGAPS to the left...Where does the 00Z Euro go? Hmmmm...
SFT
SFT
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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- SouthFloridawx
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Re:
It's also interesting to note that... Nogaps develops another area of low pressure behind this one as well.


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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...
did any one pull the EURO ensembles from this afternoon?
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re:
Vortex wrote:Not so fast...if you watch the vorticty run by the gfs matthew comes back east where it dumbells around another vorticity that forms along the monsoon trough where they then gel as one and the system cranks up....folks im really starting to think part of this system is the remnant of matthew.....
00Z GFS 850mb vorticity loop
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
Based on that loop I would tend to agree with you. But it looks like Nicole forms first south of Jamaica and then the remnants of Matthew come back offshore and refire and join up with Nicole. So basically we have two storms forming one large storm just below Cuba...
SFT
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Re: Re:
SouthFloridawx wrote:It's also interesting to note that... Nogaps develops another area of low pressure behind this one as well.
NOGAPS is the CMC from a few years ago. Its spins up almost every vortex....
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