Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#281 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:04 am

Based on that GFS run I don't think it actually makes landfall in SFLA but the effects would sure be felt. As always timing will be everything...If it moves just a gnats hair faster it may be over South Florida versus offshore...

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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#282 Postby boca » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:05 am

I'm qiute skeptical but when all the models are jumping I'm gonna watch.
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#283 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:06 am

boca wrote:I'm qiute skeptical but when all the models are jumping I'm gonna watch.


I agree...People would argue that if they had a quarter for everytime a model trashed South Florida that they would be rich. With that being said I feel this may be the real deal since multiple models have shown this over and over for the past few days...

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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#284 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:09 am

00Z Nogaps 90 Hours

Image

108
Image

120
Image
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#285 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:16 am

CMC run is much faster north than the Nogaps or the GFS

00Z CMC 00 Hours
Image
96 Hours
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120
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144 Hours
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#286 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:17 am

00Z canadian takes storm into sw FL at H108....seems wayyy to fast....


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_108.jpg
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Re:

#287 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:21 am

Vortex wrote:00Z canadian takes storm into sw FL at H108....seems wayyy to fast....


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_108.jpg



That's exactly what I was saying a few minutes ago...A faster storm versus a slower storm is the difference of whether or not we get landfall in South Florida. If I was a betting man I'd say somewhere between the two extremes...Not as slow as the GFS but not as fast as the CMC.

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#288 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:21 am

H180 Nogaps over SE gulf......rea;;y interested to see the Euro tonight...was going to turn in but im going to try and hold out



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#289 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:23 am

I should go to bed myself but this is better than any reality show on TV...Maybe we should produce a reality show based on S2K! You think Hollywood would buy it??? :cheesy:

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#290 Postby Kyuuubi » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:23 am

Considering that the system hasn't even formed yet I don't think I'll worry "yet." I guess the only guarantee at this point if there is any, is that next week looks foul with rain since the models have consistently shown the pattern. Intensity forecast is still a difficult science afterall, so I'd rather be optimistic.
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#291 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:24 am

NWS miami....

THE WEATHER FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND IF ANY LOW DEVELOPS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA LIKE THE LONG RANGES MODELS ARE SHOWING AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
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Re:

#292 Postby boca » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:24 am

Vortex wrote:H180 Nogaps over SE gulf......rea;;y interested to see the Euro tonight...was going to turn in but im going to try and hold out



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


I have to be at work 8am I can't do it.
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Re: Re:

#293 Postby caneseddy » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:31 am

boca wrote:
Vortex wrote:H180 Nogaps over SE gulf......rea;;y interested to see the Euro tonight...was going to turn in but im going to try and hold out



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


I have to be at work 8am I can't do it.


I won't be able to do it either; going to get all the sleep I can get this weekend because this upcoming week is going to be wobble watching and restless nights and I
want to be ready
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#294 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:49 am

Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#295 Postby Vortex » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:51 am

Not so fast...if you watch the vorticty run by the gfs matthew comes back east where it dumbells around another vorticity that forms along the monsoon trough where they then gel as one and the system cranks up....folks im really starting to think part of this system is the remnant of matthew.....


00Z GFS 850mb vorticity loop



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#296 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:52 am

Ok, so we've got GFS to the right, CMC, left/middle, and NOGAPS to the left...Where does the 00Z Euro go? Hmmmm...

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Re:

#297 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:54 am

It's also interesting to note that... Nogaps develops another area of low pressure behind this one as well.

Image
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Re: Hurricane possible NW carribean next week...

#298 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:54 am

did any one pull the EURO ensembles from this afternoon?
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Re:

#299 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:55 am

Vortex wrote:Not so fast...if you watch the vorticty run by the gfs matthew comes back east where it dumbells around another vorticity that forms along the monsoon trough where they then gel as one and the system cranks up....folks im really starting to think part of this system is the remnant of matthew.....


00Z GFS 850mb vorticity loop



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


Based on that loop I would tend to agree with you. But it looks like Nicole forms first south of Jamaica and then the remnants of Matthew come back offshore and refire and join up with Nicole. So basically we have two storms forming one large storm just below Cuba...

SFT
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Re: Re:

#300 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 25, 2010 12:55 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:It's also interesting to note that... Nogaps develops another area of low pressure behind this one as well.

Image



NOGAPS is the CMC from a few years ago. Its spins up almost every vortex....
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