ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Chacor]

TCCA23 KNHC 250655
STDWCA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT SEP 25 2010


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
25/0615 UTC 15.2N 86.2W 285/13 10.0 IN 9.9 IN


LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 6.8 TO 9.9 IN 2.9 TO 7.7 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 2.0 TO 6.5 IN 0.1 TO 2.9 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.0 TO 1.9 IN 0.0 TO 1.7 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.0 IN 0.0 TO 1.3 IN

[WeatherGuesser]

OK, so we have some saying it will die out, some thinking it might get into the BOC, and some wondering about the EPAC.


Interesting.

[Steve]

>>OK, so we have some saying it will die out, some thinking it might get into the BOC, and some wondering about the EPAC.

Yep, and add to that list people like me who have no idea. I looked at everything and got so deep down the list of models, I even looked at the Canadian Ensembles. One scenario even has a double barrel setup with remnants of Matthew (or some surface low that spawns from him) hitting the panhandle while the next system organizes in the Western Caribbean. There are models that lower the pressure down there a 3rd time and some that keep the pressures low in the Gulf south of 27 with a system spinning for a few days after a South Florida hit from the next system. A lot of posters suggested that this would be a pretty complicated pattern with unpredictability. Best I can tell, Central America is getting dumped on by Matthew. Yucatan and Belize look to be next. System appears to still be headed W-WNW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

That's a lot of energy to just dissipate. Unless the low level center is destroyed by some of the inland mountains or if the mid and upper energy decouples, that's probably not just going to fade into nothing. And while it may slow or stall as has been progged, it still has good momentum for now. I'm just going to watch the next few days unfold.

[HURAKAN]

I guess Matthew likes land ... wow

[HURAKAN]

Puerto Lempira taking a beating from Matthew

8 PM (0) Sep 24 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) SSE 44
7 PM (23) Sep 24 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.74 (1007) SSE 46

[HURAKAN]

(this is crazy) ^ 2

[WeatherGuesser]

(this is crazy) ^ 2

Yup.

Eenie, meenie, miney, moe, where, oh where will Matthew go?

[ospreygrad]

The flooding going on down there probably is devastating. Praying for CA.

[cyclonic chronic]

holly cow one of those models has matthew going out into the pac, then back to CA, and finally into the caribbean again. its going to be good reading when the TCR on matthew and whatever comes of this mess, comes out. i suspect it'll probably be the last TCR released in like march. lol. they gotta be living on caffine and advil this weekend at the NHC!

hope this isnt a mitch-like catastrophy down there. kinda ironic its another M storm.

[cycloneye]

hope this isnt a mitch-like catastrophy down there. kinda ironic its another M storm.

Coincidence that Matthew is the replacement name for Mitch. Hopefully, nothing bad occurs.

[ospreygrad]

holly cow one of those models has matthew going out into the pac, then back to CA, and finally into the caribbean again. its going to be good reading when the TCR on matthew and whatever comes of this mess, comes out. i suspect it'll probably be the last TCR released in like march. lol. they gotta be living on caffine and advil this weekend at the NHC!

hope this isnt a mitch-like catastrophy down there. kinda ironic its another M storm.

I posted yesterday the thought of Matthew or its remnants making it all the way across CA into the Eastern Pacific. This morning the system is still moving slightly north of due west at 16 mph. I did see a model earlier this morning making this emerge into the Eastern Pacific then making a loop back over CA into the SW Cariibbean in a few days. What a crazy projection that would be. While I still think that Matthew should slow down to a crawl traversing those rugged mountains of Guatemala and die out, it still is a big roll of the dice thing as to what will happen with all of the energy down there in the next couple of days. Anyway with most of the models projecting some form of low pressure cyclone to get pulled northward in time, I am just fascinated at watching this unfold.

[wxman57]

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical ... 092506.png

(this is crazy) ^ 2

This should probably go in the models thread, but since you're discussing it here, I'll post it here.

It's not so crazy when you remove the "garbage" from that image. Most of the strange tracks are from rather bad models (LBAR, CLIPPER, BAMs). I removed the various climo runs, LBAR and the BAMS/BAMM/BAMD and we see quite a good consensus developing.

The GFS seems to be at the heart of the disagreement. Note that there are now 3 divergent tracks that take Matthew more rapidly off to the NE - the GFS ensembles, HWRF and the consensus models (TVCN/TVCC). The HWRF at least in part incorporates GFS data, so it's not surprising it sort of follows the lead of the GFS. The consensus models incorporate the GFS and HWRF, so the consensus track is well to the NE, too. All the other models, however, keep Matthew inland for 5 days. That yellow line emerging offshore near northern Belize is the GFS operational run.

[cycloneye]

Radar from Belize.

[Sanibel]

Looks like Matthew will get back over water in the western Gulf, which begs the question whether it will get strong like some of the storms to enter the west Gulf this season? Matthew had black IR over land which is never a good sign. It could be that all that is needed is for a Depression with spin to enter the Gulf, but things change and that isn't a given. I really think Matt was getting going and Belize was spared a strong hurricane if it had tracked over water.

[wxman57]

Looks like Matthew will get back over water in the western Gulf, which begs the question whether it will get strong like some of the storms to enter the west Gulf this season? Matthew had black IR over land which is never a good sign. It could be that all that is needed is for a Depression with spin to enter the Gulf, but things change and that isn't a given. I really think Matt was getting going and Belize was spared a strong hurricane if it had tracked over water.

What makes you think that Matthew will make it to the western Gulf?

[BirdyCin]

It seems that if any remnants of Matthew remain after lingering over Central America, they will move into the Western Caribbean, not the Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

[Sanibel]

What makes you think that Matthew will make it to the western Gulf?

It might not. Right now (and you KNOW this will change a lot in the next few days) the CONUS front is very horizontally oriented and appears to finally be affecting the system like a trapping block. Right now, and I could be totally wrong, my first guess would be to blend CLP with trend and the crazy models. I guess what I'm talking myself into here is Matthew may continue to nudge more east which would linger it for days over the length of Yucatan weakening it even further. I mean what I really can't get over here is the fact it looks like we dodged a serious Wilma/Mitch type system that shot the Yucatan Channel and crushed west Florida! Instead we might get something that lingers as a deep wave until it is eventually kicked out to the NE with climatology and has to start from scratch in the less favorable Gulf which has had a strong east wind across it from the persisting High that may have shaved some peak heat off it.

Hard to say. I'd guess that NHC is leaving the track towards BOC because the front isn't plunging so they aren't predicting it to cause any radical turns at the moment. But the trend is definitely right since yesterday and might continue according to what the front does.

[Air Force Met]

It looks to me from vis loops this AM that the trek across Guat/Nic had more of an impact on the LLC than the NHC thought. It looks terrible. It appears that what the GFS was forecasting to happen is happening: a decoupling. The IR still looks impressive and the MLC is moving along to the W-wnw. The LLC is really beaten up and doesn't look at all like a 1000 mb 45 mph storm.

Belize City is reporting 14 mph east winds. According to the 09Z advisory...it should be well within the TS winds...

[caneman]

I'm wondering if it's the MLC that will make it out over water and then works its way back down to the surface. Could this be the feature that some of the models are picking up on?