Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Ivanhater]

Wow..look at the 06 GFS

[Vortex]

12Z NAM H84...Very favorable environment setting up over the NW carribean...It's looking more and more like the main show is going to develop between Honduras and Jamaica...I can't stress enough how large this circulation is going to be...regardless of how strong this will be a prolonged and serious flood threat for many people across the carribean and US.


H84



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Vortex]

Wow..look at the 06 GFS

I expected rock to be all over this I wonder how the 12Z trend

[Ivanhater]

Lol Vortex....The pattern in the Caribbean is so complicated, the GFS knows something is going to develop, it just doesn't know where or what yet.

[Vortex]

Take a look at the 200mb at 84 on the NAM...A near perfect environment aloft for a storm...Very strong westerlies to the N but that will have no impact on this developing system anytime soon...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[cycloneye]

The area to watch the next 2 days is just SE of Jamaica...On the visible this morning you can see what may be the beginning of an area of low pressure that the GFS has been keen on developing the last few days...It's a complex situation that looks to be evolving with the monsoon trough..This may become the dominant low in the days to come or rotate about into a larger circulation to the NW...

Visible image loop of that area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/flash-vis.html

[Vortex]

Take a look at the 1445z vis to the SE of Jamaica and speed it up..looks suspect...also last week when many of us were say "twins" this was the general area several models developed a spin-up...who know but something to watch today...

[Vortex]

I tend to prefer the 00Z/12Z runs of the GFS over the 6/18Z...Only because I remember reading that the 00/12Z just have more data...Anyone know if that's still the case?

[Vortex]

Thanks luis, the TUTT to the NE over DR is opening up so this just may be a go....

[SFLcane]

I tend to prefer the 00Z/12Z runs of the GFS over the 6/18Z...Only because I remember reading that the 00/12Z just have more data...Anyone know if that's still the case?

The 06z GFS really has no model support...It didn't even show the shortwave train through the Great Lakes thats been advertised by most globals.

[Ivanhater]

The 06z and 18z guidance is miles better than a few years ago. There is an article somewhere I'd have to dig up.

The 06z run could have been an anomaly but it's all going to depend what and where this develops.

[cycloneye]

The squadron is resting for the next couple of days. After that, will the resting be over?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 26 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-116

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[cycloneye]

Below is this mornings discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about this complex situation.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

[Vortex]

The 06z and 18z guidance is miles better than a few years ago. There is an article somewhere I'd have to dig up.

The 06z run could have been an anomaly but it's all going to depend what and where this develops.

Thx mike

[Vortex]

12Z GFS H30 low develops N of Honduras(remnant matt???) and to the S of jamaica...

Very broad low pressure across all the western carribean


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal030.gif

[jinftl]

NWS Miami even mentioning a possible tropical system developing:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN TURN MORE EASTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN IN THE
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND TIMING OF UPPER
LOW WEAKENING...WILL BE PIVOTAL IN DETERMINING OUR WEATHER LATE
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY...WE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN WINDS FOR THIS PERIOD.

[lonelymike]

Sounds like next week will be some late nite model watching with Rock and Ivan

[Vortex]

Looking at the close-up vis 1445Z something looks very suspect SE of Jamaica....maybe the mind is just trying to find a answers to the puzzle to yet unfold



http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[Ivanhater]

I have to say, this is one of the most complex set-ups I have seen in quite some time. Really quite amazing

[Vortex]

Could it be the interaction of the ULL and monsoon trough spark genesis?