Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

then we have 2 competing lows one north of honduras and the other near jamaica that dumbell around the large monsoon low to eventually gel into 1 vortex?

[jinftl]

Yep...for those who like to see what the various model outcome predict...and then see folks weigh in on the merits (or lack thereof) of that model run, this could be a banner week. If all of the factors come together just right, the potential for 'the big one' of the season exists. If just one or 2 of those factors fails to materialize, we could be talking about a non-event!!!

Sounds like next week will be some late nite model watching with Rock and Ivan

[Ivanhater]

54 hours..seems to be concentrated around the Yucatan.

[CDO62]

From Crown Tropical Weather....

Tropical Storm Matthew & The Possible Formation Of Nicole Next Week Which Could Be A Threat To Florida:
For Information About Tropical Storm Matthew with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3257.

Tropical Storm Matthew made landfall Friday afternoon near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua. Indications are that Matthew hasn’t weakened much, if at all as it remains just inland from the northern coast of Honduras this morning. Satellite imagery shows that Matthew is producing deep convection this morning, however, the storm should slowly weaken as it tracks further inland this weekend. The consensus guidance indicates that Matthew should remain essentially stalled over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula over at least the next several days This will create the likelihood of heavy rainfall with flash flooding and mudslides across Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.

This leads us to what will likely become a very complex and unusual tropical weather pattern over the Caribbean next week. The global model guidance has been consistently forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone over the northwest Caribbean by about Tuesday or Wednesday. The big question is whether this will be Matthew or will it be a new tropical cyclone, which would be named Nicole.

As it looks right now, Matthew should dissipate over Central America or southeastern Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. What energy is left from Matthew will become entrained into a broad monsoonal low pressure system that will track from the eastern Pacific arriving into the western Caribbean at about the same time that Matthew is dissipating. This monsoonal low pressure system is likely to develop an entirely new tropical system by about Wednesday at the latest and thus it would likely be named Nicole.

The global model guidance aren’t quite sure what to do with the interaction between these systems. The latest GFS model forecasts a very complex interaction between the monsoonal low pressure system just east of the Yucatan Peninsula and a new low pressure system that forms just southwest of Haiti on Tuesday. Eventually, this combines into one consolidated tropical cyclone around Friday that ends up tracking north-northeastward to near southeast Florida next Sunday and then out into the open Atlantic after that.

The Canadian model forecasts that “Nicole” will form near western Cuba on Tuesday and forecasts it to take a northerly and then northeasterly track into an area between Tampa and Cedar Key on Thursday.

The latest European model run forecasts that the low pressure system that will become Nicole will develop near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and forecasts it to cross west-central Cuba on Thursday morning and forecasts it track just east of southeast Florida Thursday night or Friday morning. This track looks pretty similar to the GFS model, but about 48 to 60 hours faster. It should be noted that both the GFS and European models hint at the formation of another tropical cyclone which if it happens would be named “Otto” to form near Jamaica in about 10 to 12 days from now.

I think it would be foolish and very unwise to forecast an exact track for future “Nicole” as one the system hasn’t even formed yet and two the entire pattern in the Caribbean will be extremely complex with competing low pressure systems rotating around a large monsoonal low pressure system. The exact place where the development actually happens will be crucial in the track of the potential tropical cyclone. In addition, any small changes in the position or strength of the trough of low pressure will significantly alter the track of any tropical cyclone. One thing seems very clear, however, is that the entire state of Florida could be impacted by this potential system.

I will say that the Canadian model looks way too fast, the European model looks a little bit too fast and the GFS model looks a little too slow; so if I were to stretch my neck out on this one (and keep in mind that this is a very low confidence forecast), I would go with an average between the GFS and European models.

This average would lead to the very low confidence idea of Nicole forming near the Cayman Islands on Wednesday and tracking north-northeastward crossing western Cuba on Friday and then possibly very close to or right over south Florida next Saturday.

Needless to say, I will be monitoring things very closely this weekend into next week and all interests in the western Caribbean and in Florida should pay very close attention to the possibility of a new tropical cyclone forming next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Sunday.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[Vortex]

Thats what the ECM showed last night then ejected the energy east by H96 to near the caymans...well see

[Vortex]

H72 hanging out N of Honduras...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif

[Vortex]

H84 a little deeper N of Honduras...looks more like the 6ZGFS...will it get picked up and jump aboard the connection OR miss it and head towards the central/west gul???


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal084.gif

[jinftl]

A very balanced assessment taken from the Crown Weather excerpt above:

I think it would be foolish and very unwise to forecast an exact track for future “Nicole” as one the system hasn’t even formed yet and two the entire pattern in the Caribbean will be extremely complex with competing low pressure systems rotating around a large monsoonal low pressure system. The exact place where the development actually happens will be crucial in the track of the potential tropical cyclone. In addition, any small changes in the position or strength of the trough of low pressure will significantly alter the track of any tropical cyclone. One thing seems very clear, however, is that the entire state of Florida could be impacted by this potential system.

[Vortmax1]

Potentially very bad news for several Central American countries when this monsoonal trough/low...whatever evolves.
The possibility of major loss of lives and unthinkable infrastructure damage is a real possibility in events like this.

I'm hoping none of this works out as bad as we know it can.

[Vortex]

Interesting read by crown...we might be seeing that second low SE of Jamaica already?

[jinftl]

Very true...and unfortunately this reality is possible regardless of whether a named system develops...these monsoon troughs have a history of bringing havoc due to copious amounts of rain to places that are least able to accomodate it.

Potentially very bad news for several Central American countries when this monsoonal trough/low...whatever evolves.
The possibility of major loss of lives and unthinkable infrastructure damage is a real possibility in events like this.

I'm hoping none of this works out as bad as we know it can.

[Vortex]

H108 a little stronger..S of western Cuba...looks like the CMC last night...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[Vortex]

I'll gurantee one thing..its going to RAIN in Florida...

[Vortex]

looking at all the guidance I think in the vicinity of the caymans looks to be the best bet for the gel..

[ROCK]

Last nights ECM run just about killed me. Ivan will have to take over. Though I will hang with you guys till about 12...

If I didn't have FL as my region of the US probably be in bed by 9.....dang Floridians

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[Vortex]

H126 riding parallel to the west coast of fl..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

[jinftl]

With cold fronts already in the forecast to sweep through the western gulf, can't see how a system in the nw carribean would make it that far west. Low humidity with forecast lows around 60 are in the forecast for Houston this week!

H84 a little deeper N of Honduras...looks more like the 6ZGFS...will it get picked up and jump aboard the connection OR miss it and head towards the central/west gul???


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal084.gif

[gatorcane]

Looks like West Coast of FL/EGOM this run. Look at the large BREAK in the ridge right over Florida. This is only 5 days out now:

[Vortex]

500mb at 114...just N of western Cuba



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal114.gif

[Vortex]

500mb SW of Tampa



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal126.gif