Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Vortex]

It's a crap shoot at this point but again a FL hit likely....That cutoff low is going to hold the key

[Vortex]

H138 look out panhandle...a magnet to Ivan




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal138.gif

[gatorcane]

Tampa deflector shield activated. Never makes landfall there and stays offshore.....

All kidding aside, it's quite possible the GFS is ramping development up too quickly. The ECMWF is to the east of Florida but barely. GFS has trended a bit more west and faster. Still think SW or Southern FL is in the cards and not a track that parallels the west coast of florida like that. Since that is 7 days out, well it is likely to change..

[Vortex]

Are we having fun yet? 00Z just off SE FL, 6Z heading into the West Gulf, 12Z looks like the big bend/panhandle..Are we clear now????

[Vortex]

H150 Big Bend of FL landfall



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal150.gif

[ronjon]

Big Bend after raking the FL west coast.

[Vortex]

H162..what a mess...broad low extends all the way down to the caymans...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal162.gif

[caneseddy]

Yesterday's 12z also had this system heading towards the West Coast of Florida and making landfall north of Tampa

I would not be surprised if the next run has a landfallin South Florida like it did yesterday on the 18z run

[Ivanhater]

Wow ...eastern Panhandle this run

The trough the last few runs has been a lot more shallow and lifts out faster

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like it hangs up in North FL for a couple days.

[Ivanhater]

[Vortex]

H168 2 for the price of 1??? This is going to take awhile to sort out....EXTREMELY complex set-up


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal168.gif

[gatorcane]

Wow ...eastern Panhandle this run

The trough the last few runs has been a lot more shallow and lifts out faster

Look back at the tracks of systems like Wilma or Charley, this far out they tend to start north and trend more eastward....both of these systems showed a big bend or West Coast of FL target at one point.

Don't think the Panhandle is in the cards not when you will see lows potentially dipping into the 50s...to low 60s there...too much dry air around in the Panhandle it looks like thanks to the strong NW winds around the trough...

Peninsula FL (Central and South) will stay in the "juicy" air....

[cycloneye]

The Predict team has it labled as the big one.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2010.html

[Dean4Storms]

Wow ...eastern Panhandle this run

The trough the last few runs has been a lot more shallow and lifts out faster

Look back at the tracks of systems like Wilma or Charley, this far out they tend to start north and trend more eastward....both of these systems showed a big bend or West Coast of FL target at one point.

Don't think the Panhandle is in the cards not when you will see lows potentially dipping into the 50s...to low 60s there...too much dry air around in the Panhandle it looks like thanks to the strong NW winds around the trough...

Peninsula FL (Central and South) will stay in the "juicy" air....

The front hasn't even made it through the Panhandle yet in that run.

[Ivanhater]

Wow ...eastern Panhandle this run

The trough the last few runs has been a lot more shallow and lifts out faster

Look back at the tracks of systems like Wilma or Charley, this far out they tend to start north and trend more eastward....both of these systems showed a big bend or West Coast of FL target at one point.

Don't think the Panhandle is in the cards not when you will see lows potentially dipping into the 50s...to low 60s there...too much dry air around in the Panhandle it looks like thanks to the strong NW winds around the trough...

Peninsula FL (Central and South) will stay in the "juicy" air....

I remember you saying that about Ida last year Just messing with ya.

Remember that forecast was for when the GFS showed a DEEP trough pushing deep into the GOM. Recently the GFS is showing a much more shallow and faster trough lifting out. Also this system is developing a little later.

Also, this time of year, fronts usually don't make it to the coast yet. So the GFS looks more realistic recently.

[Vortex]

By H180 its moving due East across N FL...






http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif

[x-y-no]

And the model weirdness continues ... quick move to the big bend then dead stop, then drifting slowly east across the peninsula, with two other systems on the map (off EC and south of Cuba) ....

[Dean4Storms]

At H204 the Low drops south back to near Tampa......


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal204.gif

[Vortex]

IMO there is little doubt that FL will deal with a storm/hurricane in the next 7-10 days...