ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[plasticup]

Looks like Matthew will get back over water in the western Gulf, which begs the question whether it will get strong like some of the storms to enter the west Gulf this season? Matthew had black IR over land which is never a good sign. It could be that all that is needed is for a Depression with spin to enter the Gulf, but things change and that isn't a given. I really think Matt was getting going and Belize was spared a strong hurricane if it had tracked over water.

What makes you think that Matthew will make it to the western Gulf?

BOC is the only place that the NHC cone lets it return to the water, so presumably that's the most likely way that it will survive. Personally, I can't see any circulation surviving the mountains.

[kiblet]

(this is crazy) ^ 2

So basically what they're trying to say is that Matthew becomes the flying spaghetti monster?

[Shuriken]

I'm seeing cu streaming south inland on the southeastern shore of the BoC; based on that, I'd predict that Matthew is not going to dissipate since it's already developing a fetch off the water on the western side of the Yucatan.

[Aric Dunn]

Its pretty clear where the center is. its exposed and not moving as fast near the central coast of belize.

16.76° N 88.34° W

which is north of the NHC track a little seems to be on the north side of the 11am forecast cone
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[xironman]

Its pretty clear where the center is. its exposed and not moving as fast near the central coast of belize.

16.76° N 88.34° W

which is north of the NHC track a little seems to be on the north side of the 11am forecast cone
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Very GFS like... It just decouples.

[Aric Dunn]

Im still not at all buying the whole reformation or formation of a separate system. the circ with Matthew is still well defined and expansive. It is rather apparent that a more northerly component has started and there are no signs and organized convection over the NW carrib to indicate anything else. it is more likely that the circ will stay intact and slow down and eventually start drifting ENE or E tomorrow and maybe back over the NW carrib after that. the mid level circ has continued on a west direction while the LLC has turned more WNW which leads me to believe the models that took Matthew farther west were following the mid level and not the LLC. The Latest 12z GFS seems to indicate Matthew may survive and shows little in the way of a separate system

[ConvergenceZone]

Im still not at all buying the whole reformation or formation of a separate system. the circ with Matthew is still well defined and expansive. It is rather apparent that a more northerly component has started and there are no signs and organized convection over the NW carrib to indicate anything else. it is more likely that the circ will stay intact and slow down and eventually start drifting ENE or E tomorrow and maybe back over the NW carrib after that. the mid level circ has continued on a west direction while the LLC has turned more WNW which leads me to believe the models that took Matthew farther west were following the mid level and not the LLC. The Latest 12z GFS seems to indicate Matthew may survive and shows little in the way of a separate system

Excellent post Aric. I'm with you. I see absolutely no indication that a separate system is going to be forming from Maathew in the NW carrib. There's absolutely nothing out there to even point to this. So I have no clue why the models are even seeing this. I wouldn't be at all suprised if somehow what's left of Matthew somehow turns NE in the long term and THAT ends up becomming Nicole.

[lrak]

Every storm thats hit Mex this year has either intensified over the Yucatan or stayed somewhat powerful, so I would expect this phantom storm to be Matthew.

[alanstover]

Can someone explain to me why according to ir and vis imagery it appears that the main part of the storm has been over Belize and Guat since last eve, but the NHC products still show the center off-shore? What has been producing all the convection over land?

Maybe the answer has already been posted, but I´m not advanced enough to catch it!

Thanks for any help.

I will also note, in relation to the recent posts, that the NHC forcast track takes it NW of Guat´s high mountain range over fairly low terrain.

[Steve]

You might be right Aric. 12Z GFS brings it up to the panhandle, stalls around and rains for a few days in North Florida, and then gets kicked out/north by a system moving north to its east in the Bahamas (presumably the "2nd System"). It has Matthew/:?: across the keys by Thursday am, and landfalls in Franklin or Wakulla County Friday am. There are a lot of possibilities and variables. It's going to be an interesting week to watch the evolution (possibly leading to a US landfall which could have widespread TD/TS/? impacts in Florida).

[hurricaneCW]

Perhaps the new system could still be Matthew, but considering that Matthew will likely continue to spend his time over land, the circulation will eventually dissipate, and your left with Matthew's leftovers. I personally think that Matthew will only help a new system form by lowering the pressures further and providing extra instability, but the verdict is still out on a future storm.

[Steve]

>>...but the verdict is still out on a future storm.

That's the truth and is probably why there isn't that much activity on here right now despite the potential impact(s) on Florida. I think it's safe to say that things will be buzzing by early next week regardless of what the evolution leads to.

[artist]

Can someone explain to me why according to ir and vis imagery it appears that the main part of the storm has been over Belize and Guat since last eve, but the NHC products still show the center off-shore? What has been producing all the convection over land?

Maybe the answer has already been posted, but I´m not advanced enough to catch it!

Thanks for any help.

I will also note, in relation to the recent posts, that the NHC forcast track takes it NW of Guat´s high mountain range over fairly low terrain.

hi alan!
This is what AirForceMet posted earlier-

It looks to me from vis loops this AM that the trek across Guat/Nic had more of an impact on the LLC than the NHC thought. It looks terrible. It appears that what the GFS was forecasting to happen is happening: a decoupling. The IR still looks impressive and the MLC is moving along to the W-wnw. The LLC is really beaten up and doesn't look at all like a 1000 mb 45 mph storm.

Belize City is reporting 14 mph east winds. According to the 09Z advisory...it should be well within the TS winds...

my amateur interpretation is that the lower levels of the storm has decoupled from the mid level of the storm so I think you are seeing the mid level of the storm already on land while the lower level of the storm is still off shore. A storm basically has 3 levels - the lower, mid and upper. Now I don't know if a tropical storm goes all the way to the upper levels or not, so don't know, if it does, where the upper level is, unless it is still coupled with the mid level. I hope that makes some sense. You guys stay safe.
And pro's - correct what I got wrong please!
oh, and thetruesms, I see you down there - help me out here, please!
(darn, just missed him)

[alanstover]

Thanks for that, artist. Makes sense.

Funny so few people on here today, even with the possibility of Matthew not being over with.
Anyway, for us its going to be a long few days of rain here till he decides whether he´s going to die a slow death overhead or start out for Florida.

[artist]

Thanks for that, artist. Makes sense.

Funny so few people on here today, even with the possibility of Matthew not being over with.
Anyway, for us its going to be a long few days of rain here till he decides whether he´s going to die a slow death overhead or start out for Florida.

I just have this feeling that many may be out starting generators, checking the supplies, etc. here in Florida, just in case.
Yeah, unfortunately, it looks like you guys are probably going to be dealing with him for awhile yet.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 88.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[brunota2003]

Looking at the RGB loop, it looks like the center just pushed inland...with a puff of convection going up to the west of it. I cant get a good look, though, because of cloud cover from the outflow.

[Steve]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map_inv.html

Surface data shows some current US impacts associated with Matthew as the northern part of the wave axis is around 88/89W. It's been storming here for about an hour or so. This energy is helping set off showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf along with a strong seabreeze off of the FL Panhandle which you can see on the Gulf Visible.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

I'm wondering whether the timing of the peak of the coming MJO pulse would possibly make this a super rainy system. Models very much underestimated precipitation impacts from Karl which was during a weaker MJO signal. I'm just throwing this out there and not trying to say one way or the other, because I don't know.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... l#forecast

[Aric Dunn]

The last 5 hours or so it has been moving about 290 and at a slower speed.

[cycloneye]